Will Rivergate hit 1k psf and below?

[kalumder]

U are also amusing as well.
Where's your fren J-dog who says he will chop if price does not go down to 700psf? What happens if a few more mths pple still have holding power - u gonna revise your ''expectations'' again. Really a clown!

no problem, with that. I am not saying everyone will have problems. How ever the problem will increase for landlords with morgages as rents continue to drop. Wait for June/July/August when the school year ends, and more expats will leave Singapore than come in this year. Then latest by September you will have another wave of ready to rent condo´s fighting for tenants. Lets not forget the rest of the condo´s which are scheduled to reach top the next 6 months. It will be a long time (5 or more years) before rents reach levels of 2007/2008.

[orange]

in an efficient mkt, yes, home prices will be pegged to rents, which should ideally be 2-3% above prime loan rate. if we lived in a perfect world. however in the real world during a speculative boom, all fundamentals go out the window. just a macro and cynica

[bargain hunter]

yeah, i'm glad someone still remember's J-dog's hot dog bet. Kal, you are indeed amusing. Lippo has already sold more than 20 units at 1400+ to 1500+psf. The current asking price is still 1400+ to 1500+psf and there are buyers. I was a potential buyer but now that asking and transaction prices are up, just have to give up.

U are also amusing as well.
Where's your fren J-dog who says he will chop if price does not go down to 700psf? What happens if a few more mths pple still have holding power - u gonna revise your ''expectations'' again. Really a clown!

[kalumder]

yeah, i'm glad someone still remember's J-dog's hot dog bet. Kal, you are indeed amusing. Lippo has already sold more than 20 units at 1400+ to 1500+psf. The current asking price is still 1400+ to 1500+psf and there are buyers. I was a potential buyer but now that asking and transaction prices are up, just have to give up.

these 20 units at 1400 and 1500 + are so recent, that I cannot see them on the caveats lodged site of the ura, I presume, or? I only see a grand total of 2 units sold at above 1400psf (1467,1416) on the ura website. So could you please document your point, to add more validity to it. Considering the size of Rivergate you would expect a lot more transactions.

Maybe you would like to look at transaction volume of resale units compared to the past 5 years. You will see it is currently extremely low, which means that the gap between buyer/seller is still wide. There will always be people who can buy at what ever price for various reason, but these are outliers who dont shape a market.

Lets see if the investor from Suites@ central can raise his funds in the next 6 months, and lets see how the other units will do which will Top.

[bargain hunter]

Obviously, the Lippo units have just been released and some sold and will not appear in official documents yet. I got to know of this because I have been enquiring about the units and was interested to buy at lower prices. I was given a list of sold and unsold units and the prices still being asked for the unsold units. You can contact the people from knight frank who have been tasked to sell the Lippo units (on sat's classified ads) to find out more and confirm it.

I do agree with you that we should wait for the buyer for Suites @ Central to see if he is able to raise the sum and for more projects to TOP and cause a supply glut. The buying opportunities are many months down the road and not now. Even then, I find your 850psf target very amusing.

these 20 units at 1400 and 1500 + are so recent, that I cannot see them on the caveats lodged site of the ura, I presume, or? I only see a grand total of 2 units sold at above 1400psf (1467,1416) on the ura website. So could you please document your point, to add more validity to it. Considering the size of Rivergate you would expect a lot more transactions.

Maybe you would like to look at transaction volume of resale units compared to the past 5 years. You will see it is currently extremely low, which means that the gap between buyer/seller is still wide. There will always be people who can buy at what ever price for various reason, but these are outliers who dont shape a market.

Lets see if the investor from Suites@ central can raise his funds in the next 6 months, and lets see how the other units will do which will Top.

[Property_Owner]

judging by rental 850psf seems like a fair price. Will leave a net-ROI of 4%. Offcourse the problem is that you cant rent out a 1500sf rivergate appartert at an average 6000 a month. So market price should be lower. It will be fun to see how a few more months with no rental income or even lower rental income will have impact on the market. The holding power is dwindling. In three months asking price for rental went down on average 15% in Rivergate. It is still dropping.

Many agents are comedians in disguise, you most be one of them too. Trying to offload 80 units, and expect high psf, haha very amusing.

Dude, I had bought some unit high and I also know rental is bad. Guess what, some unit had been vacant for a year or so. I rather leave it empty then to let people rent it cheap. Don't have to spoilt market and not despo for money. This is how the rich behave. Yup, over the pass few months my portfolio decreased by 20%, but I still have my havana cigar and my martell to drink every night.

850psf? I had a good laugh today!

[jitkiat]

Dude, I had bought some unit high and I also know rental is bad. Guess what, some unit had been vacant for a year or so. I rather leave it empty then to let people rent it cheap. Don't have to spoilt market and not despo for money. This is how the rich behave. Yup, over the pass few months my portfolio decreased by 20%, but I still have my havana cigar and my martell to drink every night.

850psf? I had a good laugh today!

True. Prime freehold properties are typically bought for capital appreciation, not rental yield. The fact that 98% of owners have paid means most owners are rich, one unit of Rivergate just one peanut.

[stalingrad]

Dude, I had bought some unit high and I also know rental is bad. Guess what, some unit had been vacant for a year or so. I rather leave it empty then to let people rent it cheap. Don't have to spoilt market and not despo for money. This is how the rich behave. Yup, over the pass few months my portfolio decreased by 20%, but I still have my havana cigar and my martell to drink every night.

850psf? I had a good laugh today!

850psf may be unrealistic. but 900psf is definitely in the realm of possibility.

[qwertyuiop]

900psf? I think units will be snapped up even at 1000psf. No?

850psf may be unrealistic. but 900psf is definitely in the realm of possibility.

[vin002]

900psf? I think units will be snapped up even at 1000psf. No?

Haha... True... Maybe a lot are waiting to enter at 1010psf...

[teddybear]

OK, I offer $1000 psf for any unit above 20th floor in Rivergate stack #05. Any seller? (Dream and reality are 2 different stories.)

850psf may be unrealistic. but 900psf is definitely in the realm of possibility.

[stalingrad]

OK, I offer $1000 psf for any unit above 20th floor in Rivergate stack #05. Any seller?

Hold your horse. I am sure you can buy your dream unit above the 30th floor at 900psf in late 2010.

I am not bluffing. of the 500+ units in this project, 200 are for sale and 300 are for rent. It seems that no one is interested in living in there. the rental yield is dropping like a rock. Plus, a deluge of other rental units in condos in the same area are going to be completed in the short and immediate terms. Against this backdrop, we are seeing a flood of expats leaving the country, having just been laid off. Who are going to rent units in the river valley area to keep rental yield high? aliens from mars?

Mark may words, 900psf at end of 2010.

[orange]

i'm a bear. but I also recognise that yields are not indicative of prices in a speculative mkt. if prices drop again, it has little to do with oversupply, low rents, etc. more to do with global economy and how investor pockets affected.

[orange]

Few people buy stocks for dividends. Many buy for cap appreciation. Same goes for investor-grade property. Only difference is the illiquidity of property, so deeper pockets are a must. Rental yields only affect investors with borderline affordability.

[bargain hunter]

Rivergate prices seem to indeed be more driven by stock market sentiment than rental yield. Good place for indonesians to just park their cash and go and touch whenever they are in Singapore.

[kalumder]

Dude, I had bought some unit high and I also know rental is bad. Guess what, some unit had been vacant for a year or so. I rather leave it empty then to let people rent it cheap. Don't have to spoilt market and not despo for money. This is how the rich behave. Yup, over the pass few months my portfolio decreased by 20%, but I still have my havana cigar and my martell to drink every night.

850psf? I had a good laugh today!

Lets say in 10 years your psf doubles (100% increase). As the next bubble wont start within the next 5 years. That means your yield (compounded avg) has been 7%. But wait, you are not renting it out, because it is to low. So you are actually paying money, even if you did not buy with a morgage. You still need to pay property tax and condo fees, so now your avg yield is between 5.5-6%. This also requires to always hit the market at the right time. If you bought in 2007 you will not double the psf in the next 10 years.
From 1997-2007 the psf did not double, far from it. these people lost money in real terms.

Now with a morgage the numbers get even more ridiculous, and the avg yield will be alot lower.

You see before 1997 capital appreciation made sense in Singapore. How ever now Singapore is a developed country and is already in the top 10 cities of the world. So the question is, do I take 2million and spread them over Bangkok, Shanghai, and Ho Chi Minh, and will I get an avg better return? Or do I buy a rivergate condo. I think yes, as these countries offer a larger % gain in GDP. While properties may never reach price levels in Singapore, the potential for gain is alot higher, since these are developing economies. Even if one of the economies goes into turmoil the other 2 should still avg out higher.

That is why rental yields are more important in a developed country, ask the Europeans, Americans, and the Japanese.


btw I rather rent it out, cash flow is cash flow, and always better than none. What investor gives away free money, a trust fund baby who cant calculate ROI?

[Regulators]

stop talking cock with your butt speculation lah....how do you know few people buy stocks for dividends, did you carry out a survey? Of course investors would buy stocks for cap appreciation, just a matter of whether it is long or short term. some people buy certain stocks for long term capital appreciation (based on fundamentals) whilst enjoying dividend yield during that period while other buy stocks of high volatility for trading purposes. I know of stock brokers who park their money in certain counters for the long term for good dividend yields coz some stocks are simply dividend stocks. I think you should go back to school lah....

Few people buy stocks for dividends. Many buy for cap appreciation. Same goes for investor-grade property. Only difference is the illiquidity of property, so deeper pockets are a must. Rental yields only affect investors with borderline affordability.

[Property_Owner]

Lets say in 10 years your psf doubles (100% increase). As the next bubble wont start within the next 5 years. That means your yield (compounded avg) has been 7%. But wait, you are not renting it out, because it is to low. So you are actually paying money, even if you did not buy with a morgage. You still need to pay property tax and condo fees, so now your avg yield is between 5.5-6%. This also requires to always hit the market at the right time. If you bought in 2007 you will not double the psf in the next 10 years.
From 1997-2007 the psf did not double, far from it. these people lost money in real terms.

Now with a morgage the numbers get even more ridiculous, and the avg yield will be alot lower.

You see before 1997 capital appreciation made sense in Singapore. How ever now Singapore is a developed country and is already in the top 10 cities of the world. So the question is, do I take 2million and spread them over Bangkok, Shanghai, and Ho Chi Minh, and will I get an avg better return? Or do I buy a rivergate condo. I think yes, as these countries offer a larger % gain in GDP. While properties may never reach price levels in Singapore, the potential for gain is alot higher, since these are developing economies. Even if one of the economies goes into turmoil the other 2 should still avg out higher.

That is why rental yields are more important in a developed country, ask the Europeans, Americans, and the Japanese.


btw I rather rent it out, cash flow is cash flow, and always better than none. What investor gives away free money, a trust fund baby who cant calculate ROI?

Talk so much for what! People like to ask me why I have so many cars when I can only drive one at a time

[bargain hunter]

Not sure if the article today in BT is sufficient to document my point and add more validity to it but here's a summary:


Published May 23, 2009

Ferrell puts 80 RiverGate units back on market
30 to 40 apartments have since been sold at private preview
By EMILYN YAP


FERRELL Asset Management, which counts Indonesia's Lippo Group as one of its investors, has put around 80 apartments at the RiverGate back on the market for sale, BT understands.

According to agents, a private preview began a few days ago and around 30 to 40 units have been taken up. The 545-unit freehold condominium in the Robertson Quay area received Temporary Occupation Permit in March, and was a joint development between CapitaLand and Hwa Hong Corporation.
The apartments on sale are spread over several floors and comprise three-bedders, four-bedders and penthouses. They are selling at $1,450 - $1,550 psf, one source said. Prices of lower-level units may even start from $1,380 psf.

these 20 units at 1400 and 1500 + are so recent, that I cannot see them on the caveats lodged site of the ura, I presume, or? I only see a grand total of 2 units sold at above 1400psf (1467,1416) on the ura website. So could you please document your point, to add more validity to it. Considering the size of Rivergate you would expect a lot more transactions.

Maybe you would like to look at transaction volume of resale units compared to the past 5 years. You will see it is currently extremely low, which means that the gap between buyer/seller is still wide. There will always be people who can buy at what ever price for various reason, but these are outliers who dont shape a market.

Lets see if the investor from Suites@ central can raise his funds in the next 6 months, and lets see how the other units will do which will Top.

[vin002]

Not sure if the article today in BT is sufficient to document my point and add more validity to it but here's a summary:


Published May 23, 2009

Ferrell puts 80 RiverGate units back on market
30 to 40 apartments have since been sold at private preview
By EMILYN YAP


FERRELL Asset Management, which counts Indonesia's Lippo Group as one of its investors, has put around 80 apartments at the RiverGate back on the market for sale, BT understands.

According to agents, a private preview began a few days ago and around 30 to 40 units have been taken up. The 545-unit freehold condominium in the Robertson Quay area received Temporary Occupation Permit in March, and was a joint development between CapitaLand and Hwa Hong Corporation.
The apartments on sale are spread over several floors and comprise three-bedders, four-bedders and penthouses. They are selling at $1,450 - $1,550 psf, one source said. Prices of lower-level units may even start from $1,380 psf.

Base on this article, the chances of RG hitting $1Kpsf and below is very remote. In addition, I noticed the asking prices of some Condo already adjusted upwards. Good Luck to all that are still on the sideline.

[KT_Lim]

Haaa.... I like that. nice one

Talk so much for what! People like to ask me why I have so many cars when I can only drive one at a time

[firec]

Base on this article, the chances of RG hitting $1Kpsf and below is very remote. In addition, I noticed the asking prices of some Condo already adjusted upwards. Good Luck to all that are still on the sideline.

So you're saying more supply = higher price?

I re-read the article and there are 3 main points I noted:

1. "FERRELL Asset Management, which counts Indonesia’s Lippo Group as one of its investors, has put around 80 apartments at the RiverGate back on the market for sale." (This means more units available.)

2. " They are selling at $1,450 – $1,550 psf, one source said. Prices of lower-level units may even start from $1,380 psf." (This means ASKING PRICES.)

3. "According to Urban Redevelopment Authority data on caveats lodged, recent transactions of RiverGate units took place between $1,150 – $1,470 psf." (This means actual TRANSACTED PRICES.)

Full article available here:
http://luxuryasiahome.wordpress.com/...ack-on-market/

Which part of the article led you to your conclusion?

[jitkiat]

So you're saying more supply = higher price?

I re-read the article and there are 3 main points I noted:

1. "FERRELL Asset Management, which counts Indonesia’s Lippo Group as one of its investors, has put around 80 apartments at the RiverGate back on the market for sale." (This means more units available.)

2. " They are selling at $1,450 – $1,550 psf, one source said. Prices of lower-level units may even start from $1,380 psf." (This means ASKING PRICES.)

3. "According to Urban Redevelopment Authority data on caveats lodged, recent transactions of RiverGate units took place between $1,150 – $1,470 psf." (This means actual TRANSACTED PRICES.)

Full article available here:
http://luxuryasiahome.wordpress.com/...ack-on-market/

Which part of the article led you to your conclusion?

.... a private preview began a few days ago and around 30 to 40 units have been taken up (means > 1,380 psf) ...

[bargain hunter]

Look out for the caveats in a few months time for confirmation that at least 30 units were transacted at 1380 to 1550psf since they claimed that these are actual transactions and not just asking prices. Heard the last 3 penthouses by Capitaland has been snapped up at 1870psf. Anyone can confirm this?

So you're saying more supply = higher price?

I re-read the article and there are 3 main points I noted:

1. "FERRELL Asset Management, which counts Indonesia’s Lippo Group as one of its investors, has put around 80 apartments at the RiverGate back on the market for sale." (This means more units available.)

2. " They are selling at $1,450 – $1,550 psf, one source said. Prices of lower-level units may even start from $1,380 psf." (This means ASKING PRICES.)

3. "According to Urban Redevelopment Authority data on caveats lodged, recent transactions of RiverGate units took place between $1,150 – $1,470 psf." (This means actual TRANSACTED PRICES.)

Full article available here:
http://luxuryasiahome.wordpress.com/...ack-on-market/

Which part of the article led you to your conclusion?

[august]

.... a private preview began a few days ago and around 30 to 40 units have been taken up (means > 1,380 psf) ...

1380psf? wow! congrats to ferrell!

[kalumder]

If Ferrell did it, congratulations to them. I wonder if they sold them to foreigners outside Singapore.

Considering how many units are on the market, one would think that one would not need to pay above 1500psf for a similiar unit. I find it a bit odd that Ferrell can sell so many units so easily, and others cant get rid of their units, despite asking prices being all over the place between 1200-1600psf. That nobody gets suspicious that a investment fund, decides to dump their units, and still think that prices should go up, baffles me.

[firec]

That nobody gets suspicious that a investment fund, decides to dump their units, and still think that prices should go up, baffles me.

... because they are in denial. Property bulls will still say Ferrell is facing investor redemptions, just an isolated case, and in no way affecting the sharp upturn in Rivergate prices.

[bargain hunter]

You got to understand that the majority of units that Ferrell owns is in the premium block 97. Even though they are the biggest 3 and 4 bedrooms in the development (bigger than the 3 and 4 bedrooms found in the other 2 blocks), they are commanding high psf because of the unblocked views (stacks 9 and 10 and very high floor stack 6) or unique design (stacks 6 and 8) and river views (stack 7). But if you are looking for units in block 93 (except stack 5) or 99, i think they cannot command such high psf, especially after Ferrell has unloaded everything and the sentiment cools off.

If Ferrell did it, congratulations to them. I wonder if they sold them to foreigners outside Singapore.

Considering how many units are on the market, one would think that one would not need to pay above 1500psf for a similiar unit. I find it a bit odd that Ferrell can sell so many units so easily, and others cant get rid of their units, despite asking prices being all over the place between 1200-1600psf. That nobody gets suspicious that a investment fund, decides to dump their units, and still think that prices should go up, baffles me.

[jitkiat]

... because they are in denial. Property bulls will still say Ferrell is facing investor redemptions, just an isolated case, and in no way affecting the sharp upturn in Rivergate prices.

Well, Temasek offloaded BOA, it skyrocketed since then. The fact is that big funds decrease or increase stake at anytime they want. If volume is sufficiently high, we can only say that both buyer/seller agree that it is a fair price at the time contract is signed. So, don't draw conclusion so fast.

[firec]

Well, Temasek offloaded BOA, it skyrocketed since then. The fact is that big funds decrease or increase stake at anytime they want. If volume is sufficiently high, we can only say that both buyer/seller agree that it is a fair price at the time contract is signed. So, don't draw conclusion so fast.

I would say Temasek is one of its kind in the world. First class. Ferrell is in no way similar to Temasek. You can't compare it with a world class sovereign wealth fund with highly paid top talent managing it.

btw, BOA price is still just US$11, still down more than 60% compared to 1 year ago. It's just that Temasek unloaded at -80% to -90%.

Are you saying that Ferrell is also unloading at the bottom?