Will Rivergate hit 1k psf and below?

[stalingrad]

Is there a need to curse people who buy property at current price? Who knows whether RG will hit 900 psf? I also really hope it will falls to 900 psf (so that I can buy another cheap cheap) but unfortunately nobody wants to sell me at such price and NO, there is no need to curse these sellers, regardless of whether they are really smart or stupid depending on how the future prices pan out.

yes, there is a need. these speculators were the ones that pushed up this market and got the bubble inflated. they have done a great disservice to the country and to the economy. they deserve to lose millions. what baffles me that they did not even learn a lesson from the market crash. they are going their merry way again. yes, I curse them just like I curse that thing that scurries under my sink.

[jitkiat]

I doubt that was the reason for the market to erase its early gain today. more likely, it is the reversal of US futures. ADB report is coming out today at 8:30 pm. if there is no quick turnaround in employment situation, and the friday employment report is lousy, expect the dow to get below 8,000 again. haha, lemmings, die and you don't even know what hit you.

Unlikely to be due to ADB. More like sudden surge of short positions in HSBC in Hong Kong market. HK futures reversed from +600 to -150 !!! Very powerful signal. Actually, you talk like a professional in stock/futures but why you sound like sour grape when it comes to property ?!

[stalingrad]

this story about a V-shaped recovery started when china reported PMIs rose month after month. let me tell you this: Never trust statistics reported by the chinese. they can report any numbers that they want to improve market sentiments. Paul Krugman has said that chinese statistics are more fake than the milk laced with melamine.

If you don't buy chinese goods for fear of getting poisoned, why would you buy into their recovery story?

[stalingrad]

Unlikely to be due to ADB. More like sudden surge of short positions in HSBC in Hong Kong market. HK futures reversed from +600 to -150 !!! Very powerful signal. Actually, you talk like a professional in stock/futures but why you sound like sour grape when it comes to property ?!

HK futures reversed when US futures reversed.

I am a professional, and I firmly believed that the bottom will come some time in late 2009. cannot give you the exact date, but october seems likely the months where the bottoming process will end.

[jitkiat]

HK futures reversed when US futures reversed.

I am a professional, and I firmly believed that the bottom will come some time in late 2009. cannot give you the exact date, but october seems likely the months where the bottoming process will end.

Market does not care about your "professional" opinion. Anyway, let's assume you are right, what is your expectation of PPI at Q2, Q3 and Q4 2009 respectively?

[stalingrad]

Market does not care about your "professional" opinion. Anyway, let's assume you are right, what is your expectation of PPI at Q2, Q3 and Q4 2009 respectively?

big jumps in PPI in all those quarters. crude hit 70 yesterday. gold is hitting 1000. inflation is creeping up. take cover, man. when liquidity is withdrawn to fight inflation, expect dow to hit 6000, and RG to hit 900psf.

[stalingrad]

big jumps in PPI in all those quarters. crude hit 70 yesterday. gold is hitting 1000. inflation is creeping up. take cover, man. when liquidity is withdrawn to fight inflation, expect dow to hit 6000, and RG to hit 900psf.

this market is all about liquidity. when bernanke expanded the feds' balance sheet 300%, he pumped trillions of dollars into the market. where did the money go, all into equities and real estate. but he will not be able to keep the balance sheet expanded forever, he has to shrink it eventually, and shrink it he will very soon. take cover.

[jitkiat]

big jumps in PPI in all those quarters. crude hit 70 yesterday. gold is hitting 1000. inflation is creeping up. take cover, man. when liquidity is withdrawn to fight inflation, expect dow to hit 6000, and RG to hit 900psf.

You are contradicting yourself friend. You said you expect market to bottom only in October or end of year just now. Now you say PPI is going to skyrocket for the next 3 quarters? Is that professional?

[vin002]

can someone pls explain to me the rationale behind the mad rush these few weeks to buy rivergate at 1500 psf ++??is the rental yield great or they really think market will go above 1800 psf again ?

1st of all, is there a mad rush? And above 1500psf??? Where you get the info from?

For Apr & May, only 3 units are sold above 1400psf and these units must have a reason for sold at such price.

[stalingrad]

You are contradicting yourself friend. You said you expect market to bottom only in October or end of year just now. Now you say PPI is going to skyrocket for the next 3 quarters? Is that professional?

PPI is producer price index. why did I contradict myself? PPI can skyrocket, but bernanke may not withdraw liquidity right away. so the party has some time to run.

[jitkiat]

PPI is producer price index. why did I contradict myself? PPI can skyrocket, but bernanke may not withdraw liquidity right away. so the party has some time to run.

Sigh ... if you are so confident, why don't you start building up your short position on S&P500 and make huge profit end of the year or next year. Then you can buy RG from the proceed of your profit Or you can buy PUT warrant on property stocks in Singapore loh .. no need to spend time to argue with RG owners

[pweesng]

You are contradicting yourself friend. You said you expect market to bottom only in October or end of year just now. Now you say PPI is going to skyrocket for the next 3 quarters? Is that professional?

Welll to a certain extend i agee with Stalin. (not the cursing part though)

the excess liquidity in the market now, will need to be reduce once inflation creeps in. ie. Interest rate will go up.

However, what we can hope for is that govt and central be mindful of increases and ensure that the market still need time to adapt to it, in the bottom line... Given what happen over the last 24 months. i would say they might probably take the view to err on the side of caution. (again I hope)

Now for the cursing part... this is a free society and almost free economy. If you firmly believe in economy... people then are allowed to exercise their judgement and purchase what they deem is right. Yes, they may drive up the prices. But that is also their rights...

if you are against it, you should look to migrate to North Korea or something. There is no free market there... given the low price of the land there, you got a 99.9% chance of appreciation...

So, be nice, stop cursing people...

[stalingrad]

Sigh ... if you are so confident, why don't you start building up your short position on S&P500 and make huge profit end of the year or next year. Then you can buy RG from the proceed of your profit Or you can buy PUT warrant on property stocks in Singapore loh .. no need to spend time to argue with RG owners

I am short S&P. I am confident that short position will get me RG at 500psf, if you take into account the profit from those short positions. that is when RG hits 900psf, my short position will generate 400 psf in profit. thus, I need to pony up only 500 more psf.

[stalingrad]

Welll to a certain extend i agee with Stalin. (not the cursing part though)

the excess liquidity in the market now, will need to be reduce once inflation creeps in. ie. Interest rate will go up.

However, what we can hope for is that govt and central be mindful of increases and ensure that the market still need time to adapt to it, in the bottom line... Given what happen over the last 24 months. i would say they might probably take the view to err on the side of caution. (again I hope)

Now for the cursing part... this is a free society and almost free economy. If you firmly believe in economy... people then are allowed to exercise their judgement and purchase what they deem is right. Yes, they may drive up the prices. But that is also their rights...

if you are against it, you should look to migrate to North Korea or something. There is no free market there... given the low price of the land there, you got a 99.9% chance of appreciation...

So, be nice, stop cursing people...

no more cursing.

[pweesng]

I am just re-reading the threads... and thinking back on my first property purchase.

... ...

like many, i was disgusted by people who buys up the market, outbidding me in everyway, putting the prices way out of my reach. I ask myself, why are these people doing this, do they really see a fundamental or are they just freaking investors. I mean.. these are not squares on monopoly... they are like real stuff that will cost me 30 years of financial freedom and enjoyment. I didn't curse them, but i really hate them for putting real users like me out of reach of a dream home.

The market tank after that, soon a unit was within my reach... but market tank for a reason. Asian Currency Crisis. My friends were losing their jobs left, right and center. I wanted to buy something, but was sure if I would be able keep my job for the next 6 months, so don't talk about a 30 year loan. But with the right encouragement from my wife, we plunge on our first private property. Now we don't look back anymore.

Something I learn in the last decade or so...

1) if you haven't bought your first property, everything will always be too expensive.

2) When things are cheap, chances are you would not dare to buy anyway, for fearing about your job security.

3) when things are expensive, you blame the people who are in the market, but in reality, they took the risk, they get their rewards.

Once you take the plunge, the 3 points above will suddenly disappear...

Of course, after i sold my first property, i also realise that the real gain is not the roof over our head... hence, i never buy something for ownstay... at least not for now. I still stay in a HDB...and happily so.

[jitkiat]

I am short S&P. I am confident that short position will get me RG at 500psf, if you take into account the profit from those short positions. that is when RG hits 900psf, my short position will generate 400 psf in profit. thus, I need to pony up only 500 more psf.

Ok, this sounds more professional, provided you enter and exit at the correct timing, execution matters. For me, I rather wait for S&P500 to go back down below 200d MA b4 shorting.

Actually, everybody is entitled to their own opinion:

Marc Faber (aka Dr Doom):

The U.S. economy will enter “hyperinflation” approaching the levels in Zimbabwe because the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates, investor Marc Faber said.

Prices may increase at rates “close to” Zimbabwe’s gains, Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Hong Kong. Zimbabwe’s inflation rate reached 231 million percent in July, the last annual rate published by the statistics office.

“I am 100 percent sure that the U.S. will go into hyperinflation ,” Faber said.

Jim Rogers:

Stock markets may hit new lows , this year (2009) or the next, as the current rally has been largely caused by the money printed by central banks and fundamental problems remain unsolved. The bottom will probably come later this year, next year, who knows when

[jitkiat]

I am just re-reading the threads... and thinking back on my first property purchase.

... ...

like many, i was disgusted by people who buys up the market, outbidding me in everyway, putting the prices way out of my reach. I ask myself, why are these people doing this, do they really see a fundamental or are they just freaking investors. I mean.. these are not squares on monopoly... they are like real stuff that will cost me 30 years of financial freedom and enjoyment. I didn't curse them, but i really hate them for putting real users like me out of reach of a dream home.

The market tank after that, soon a unit was within my reach... but market tank for a reason. Asian Currency Crisis. My friends were losing their jobs left, right and center. I wanted to buy something, but was sure if I would be able keep my job for the next 6 months, so don't talk about a 30 year loan. But with the right encouragement from my wife, we plunge on our first private property. Now we don't look back anymore.

Something I learn in the last decade or so...

1) if you haven't bought your first property, everything will always be too expensive.

2) When things are cheap, chances are you would not dare to buy anyway, for fearing about your job security.

3) when things are expensive, you blame the people who are in the market, but in reality, they took the risk, they get their rewards.

Once you take the plunge, the 3 points above will suddenly disappear...

Of course, after i sold my first property, i also realise that the real gain is not the roof over our head... hence, i never buy something for ownstay... at least not for now. I still stay in a HDB...and happily so.

Private property in SG is purposely priced such that only 20% of population can afford it so that rich-poor gap not so obvious ... government holds the ultimate weapon ... supply of lands and HDB flats

[HP65]

this story about a V-shaped recovery started when china reported PMIs rose month after month. let me tell you this: Never trust statistics reported by the chinese. they can report any numbers that they want to improve market sentiments. Paul Krugman has said that chinese statistics are more fake than the milk laced with melamine.

If you don't buy chinese goods for fear of getting poisoned, why would you buy into their recovery story?

Wise words and I never trust their books as well, no matter what the `lao zong' says about which book can trust. I make sure i send my men in for 6 mths min before investing in them.

[cheerful]

Lesson learnt (fr China & fr the story 'crying wolves'), don't always give fake things or fake stories; else after awhile, real stories oso can be deemed as fake ones

[firec]

Market is moving my friend. Ppty mkt is going up like it did in 2007. Just wait for few months and you will notice the momentum picking up. The reason is the int rates is unnaturally kept low. In fact because policy makers are nervous so they will keep the rates low for much longer than previous recessions. Nett result is that prices will have to go up. Anyone can do the sums of loan rate vs rental. It is at historical advantage now to buy.

Interest rates were kept unnaturally low from 2002 all the way to 2005 but property prices did not budge at all. I would say it was at historical advantage to buy at that time, not now.

I bought at that time and sold for a huge profit in 2008. Did you? If not, then of course "don't miss this bull run" as all the bulls here say... (I'll wait.)

And 2002-2005 wasn't even a global recession.

[Kenshinto80]

Interest rates were kept unnaturally low from 2002 all the way to 2005 but property prices did not budge at all. I would say it was at historical advantage to buy at that time, not now.

I bought at that time and sold for a huge profit in 2008. Did you? If not, then of course "don't miss this bull run" as all the bulls here say... (I'll wait.)

And 2002-2005 wasn't even a global recession.

Then wait lor. Based on your historical real life experience you have made profits. You are sure to make another killing once the market sink in the next few months. Congrats!

[爱屋及乌]

The market is driven by demand and supply, not chart.

Those who spot big trend make it big. Those who spot small trend make little. Those who are against the trend, got buried. Look at the attached technical chart. SG property never goes below the support line since 1960.

FYI, temporary stock market correction may be coming tonight, just now somebody took a half a million dollars short position at S&P500 and market reversed shortly after that.

[爱屋及乌]

A low floor no view 1000sf unit is renting abt 3.2K in The Sail... How much u think RG can fetch...?

can someone pls explain to me the rationale behind the mad rush these few weeks to buy rivergate at 1500 psf ++??is the rental yield great or they really think market will go above 1800 psf again ?

[bargain hunter]

I think you are referring to the 80+ Lippo units. The prices transacted are actually from 1300+psf to 1500+psf. It is believed that those buyers were a mix of indonesian investors and rich en-bloc sellers who are buying for their own stay. (Afterall, this is a premium block of big 3 and 4 bedrooms so the quantum is easily $2m+ to $3m+). Certainly not the kind of speculative buying that some people are saying. Afterall, the financial commitment is huge as a full loan must be processed and not like new launches where you just pay 20% down etc. However, do note that only a select number of units are transacted at >1500psf and the average transaction is more likely to be closer to 1400 than 1500.

can someone pls explain to me the rationale behind the mad rush these few weeks to buy rivergate at 1500 psf ++??is the rental yield great or they really think market will go above 1800 psf again ?

[jitkiat]

The market is driven by demand and supply, not chart.

Any market, including stock & commodities market, also driven by supply & demand. So I guess you also think chart is useless in stock & commodities loh Chart helps you to spot trend, of course chart does not drive the market directly

[bargain hunter]

The caveats lodged for Apr & May are actually transactions done before that. The recent Lippo sales were transacted at 1300+ to 1500+psf. However, I believe prices are likely to stay pretty near this range in the short term while the market digests this units. I was wondering, if these units were mopped up by en-bloc buyers for their own stay, does that mean that the rental will be a little more stable than before.

Oh, the one who mentioned 200+ units for sale, did you take into account duplicates of the 80 units? Perhaps, other than Lippo's 80 units which have now been absorbed by the market, there are fewer than 50 units up for sale?

1st of all, is there a mad rush? And above 1500psf??? Where you get the info from?

For Apr & May, only 3 units are sold above 1400psf and these units must have a reason for sold at such price.

[Douk]

I am short S&P. I am confident that short position will get me RG at 500psf, if you take into account the profit from those short positions. that is when RG hits 900psf, my short position will generate 400 psf in profit. thus, I need to pony up only 500 more psf.

nice write up.

[jitkiat]

nice write up.

Dont cheer too early. If he is right, he will be right big time, but then the odd is 5 to 1 in the history:

S&P500 rallied an average 21 percent over 12 months the last five times it crossed the 200-day mean after falling below it for a year or more, data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group LLC and Bloomberg show.

Only once, when the S&P 500 rebounded above its 200-day average in January 2002, did stocks fall in the next 12 months, the data showed.

Stalin care to share how big is your position ?

[Douk]

Dont cheer too early. If he is right, he will be right big time, but then the odd is 5 to 1 in the history:

S&P500 rallied an average 21 percent over 12 months the last five times it crossed the 200-day mean after falling below it for a year or more, data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group LLC and Bloomberg show.

Only once, when the S&P 500 rebounded above its 200-day average in January 2002, did stocks fall in the next 12 months, the data showed.

Stalin care to share how big is your position ?

I am not cheering for whether he is right or wrong. but on general market trend, i believe he is right ..

In my personal opinion, i think he has a very logical analysis on the economy and linking the economy to property market, that make sense. It just doesn't make sense to me using short term stock market bull run to predict a property market... just my personal opinion.

[august]

went to look see martin place residences and wharf over the weekend...
wharf left handful of units, martin by now probably 80% sold, fantastic response!

martin especially is overpriced.. 1700psf for a 2 bedder ~ lol