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Market Update: Where is the Private Home Market Heading?
The unrequited love of supply and demand in 2009
Apr 17, 2009This is the time when everybody tries to keep their jobs – including property analysts and consultants who have also fallen on bad times. God knows which one will lose his or her job for predi window.google_render_ad();cting the wrong thing.
So, to play it safe, the vast majority of property consultants are placing their bets on the private home prices falling a further 10 per cent to 20 per cent in the full year of 2009. That is really not a difficult guess, considering their own incipient fears.
Home prices took a tumble in Q4 2008
The January 2009 Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) data confirms that the private home prices continued to fall in the final quarter (Q4) of 2008, losing a further 6.1 per cent.
The slump is on top of a 2.4 per cent fall in Q3 2008, which was the first decline in over four years – in stark contrast to the spectacular bull-run in 2007 with home prices rising 31.2 per cent for the whole year.
In Q4 2008, homes in prime districts fell the most – by 6.5 per cent; while suburban home prices dropped 5.9 per cent.
The slump in suburban home prices coincided with price rise in HDB resale flats in the same period, indicating general cautiousness among wage earners who may have opted for the safety of subsidised housing in these difficult times.
New home market the worst hit
The loss of buying confidence was clearly shown in the new home market. For the whole of 2008, only 4,584 new home units (see table at the next page) were sold – which is about 31 per cent of the record 14,811 private home units sold in 2007.
The 2008 sales figure is the lowest in a decade – worse than the previous low of 5,156 and 5,520 units in the last two recessions in 2003 and 1998 respectively.
In terms of supply, the developers launched a total of 6,114 units in 2008, down 56 per cent from a record 14,016 a year ago.
The sales in 2008 were also significantly lower than the annual 10 year average (1998-2007) of 8,200 units.
Within the new home segment, upmarket luxury homes are the worst hit this time round after almost two years of boom. However, the segment is now widely expected to experience higher ratio of distressed sale in 2009. Most buyers are looking at prices at least 20 per cent below Q3 2008 levels before they are willing to commit to a luxury home.
Some property experts predicted developers may sell 5,000-6,000 units in 2009, as the take-up rate may get a boost by more goodies dangled by the developers and cheaper prices.
Unsold inventory is actually much higher
According to data compiled by URA, the total cumulative new home units launched in 2008 were 32,516. Of these units, 28,365 units have been sold. The success rate was 87.23 per cent of all unit launched.
Let’s dissect the numbers and match them with the timeline to ascertain how the market has evolved from the onset of the global recession in early 2008.
Of the total 28,365 units that have been sold, 14,811 units were sold in 2007, and another 4,584 units in 2008. That means 8,970 units were sold in 2006 and earlier.
This shows that the main bulk of the 28,365 units were sold before the October 2008 worldwide stock market crash.
In fact, in the final quarter of 2008, only 680 new home units were sold, comprising 112 units in October 2008, 192 units in November 2008 and 376 units in December 2008. The low figures show that the buying mood has been adversely affected by the global financial woes.
When compared with the sales figure in the preceding months, the quantum of the fall in transaction volume is startling and it is also a faithful reflection of the topsy-turvy in the global financial market.
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Quarters 2008[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']New units sold[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Q1[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']795[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Q2[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']1,516[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Q3[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']1,593[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Q4[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']680[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Total[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']4,584[/FONT]
Besides, the total number of units in all the projects that have been launched so far is 45,335, which means only about 72 per cent of the total units have been launched in the market. And that puts the actual unsold inventory much higher at 16,970 units.
Supply of new home units in the pipeline
According to URA, the total supply of new home units in the pipeline is 64,982 uncompleted units.
Of these, 43,414 units remain unsold, including 3,880 units that had been launched for sale by developers and 14,386 units which had the pre-requisite conditions for sale and could be launched for sale immediately.
The remaining 25,148 units are allowed to be deferred to much later dates, and hopefully, will not aggravate the current supply-demand constraints.
At the end of the day, we are still staring at a high unsold inventory of 18,266 new home units that will be completed and ready for occupancy in this year and next.
And when the 25,148 units eventually join the fray, they will dilute whatever price gains in the future.
Unsold inventory for luxury condo rose
Official data shows that only 1,096 caveats were lodged against luxury apartments/condos in prime districts 9 and 10 in 2008. This represents 19 per cent and 32 per cent of sales done in 2007 and 2006 respectively.
According to a recent CBRE report in January 2009, about 55 per cent of units in luxury projects launched by developers between 2007 and 2008 remained unsold at the close of the misery year of 2008.
The number of apartments sold for more than S$10 million dropped to 82 last year from 143 in 2007. As such, there was also a corresponding fall in prices for the luxury properties.
Average launch price fell to S$2,000 to S$2,600 psf in in the final quarter (Q4) of 2008 from S$2,000 to S$4,000 psf in Q4 2007.
Average resale prices of luxury apartments/condos had dropped to about S$2,000 to S$2,400 psf of strata area in Q4 2008 from S$2,000 to S3,300 psf in 2007.
Secondary market huffed and puffed
The secondary market took a slightly longer time to chill in 2008; however, chill it did.
This is because prospective buyers in general started to take cover after the October worldwide stock market crashes. For the whole of last year, only about 7,400 to 7,600 resale deals were done, compared with 20,985 transactions in 2007.
As such, most experts reckon that there will be a further 10 per cent to 20 per cent decline in prices this year in the benchmark index.
Landed home sales lost momentum
The worldwide stock market crash on 10 October 2008 seems to be the watershed of property market in Singapore. Since October 2008, the buying mood became more circumspect.
The total sales of landed homes in Q4 2008 were 184 houses, compared with 869 houses in the same period a year ago. This represents a fall in sales volume of around 79 per cent.
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Table [1] – Landed property transactions in 2008 [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']2008[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Detached[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Semi-D[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Terrace[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Total [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Jan [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']34[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']47[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']116[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']197[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Feb [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']20[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']38[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']101[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']159[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Mar [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']18[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']37[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']119[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']174[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Apr [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']21[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']39[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']107[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']167[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']May [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']31[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']56[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']108[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']195[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Jun [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']17[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']39[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']114[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']170[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Jul [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']21[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']41[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']115[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']177[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Aug [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']9[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']33[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']91[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']119[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Sept [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']15[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']40[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']88[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']143[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Oct[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']11[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']23[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']60[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']94[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Nov[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']8[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']10[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']46[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']64[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Dec[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']0[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']6[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']20[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']26[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Source of information: SISVRealink[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif'][/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Table [2] – Landed property transactions in 2007[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']2007[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Detached[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Semi-D[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Terrace[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Total[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Jan [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']83[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']106[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']188[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']377[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Feb [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']55[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']110[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']194[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']359[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Mar [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']59[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']130[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']213[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']402[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Apr [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']105[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']168[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']317[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']590[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']May [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']128[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']211[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']439[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']778[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Jun [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']106[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']213[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']374[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']693[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Jul [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']123[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']184[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']382[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']689[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Aug [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']70[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']116[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']258[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']444[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Sept [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']38[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']57[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']160[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']255[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Oct [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']48[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']88[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']230[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']366[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Nov [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']52[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']83[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']177[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']312[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']Dec [/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']31[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']56[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']104[/FONT]
[FONT='Maiandra GD','sans-serif']191[/FONT]
Prices of landed properties fell by 4.8 per cent in Q4 2008, compared with the decrease of 1.9 per cent in Q3.
Prices of detached, semi-detached and terrace houses fell by 5.3 per cent, 3.9 per cent and 4.7 per cent respectively in Q4 2008.
For the year 2008 as a whole, prices of detached, semi-detached and terrace houses fell by 3.1 per cent, 1.0 per cent and 1.7 per cent respectively.
Sub-sale sellers appear edgy
Likewise, sub-sale deals also fell from the height of 4,863 units in 2007 to between 1,600 and 1,650 units in 2008.
According to Savills’ recent report in February 2009, sub-sale deals of new home units at some popular projects were transacted at close to the average launched prices. At some prime projects which are still under construction, many units were even sub-sold recently at below their launch prices.
Sub-sale prices may be at touching distance of launch prices of 2006. Savills says that units at 11 developments that were launched between 2006 and 2008 have come down to below their launch levels.
For example, Duchess Residences in Bukit Timah, which was launched in 2007 at an average launch price of S$1,825 per square foot (psf), had a couple of sub-sale deals that were done at an average of S$1,675 psf. A 1,604 sq ft home at Duchess Residences was recently advertised for sale at S$1,500 psf – way below the original launch price.
Two recent sub-sale deals done in January 2009 at Park Infinia at Wee Nam in Lincoln Road were at S$1,180 psf for a 969 sq ft unit and S$1,061 psf for a 1,442sq ft unit, which are more than 20 per cent cheaper than the average sub-sale prices of between S$1,500 and S$1,600 psf achieved in 2008.
Sellers of new condominium units are also appearing to be edgy of late, judging by the level of asking prices in the classified advertisements. For example, a unit at The Orchard Residences was advertised for sale at S$2,600 psf, compared with the highest transacted price of S$4,750 psf in February 2008.
A seller at One Shenton in Shenton Way asked for S$888 psf, compared with its launch price of between S$1,500 to more than S$2,000 psf in early 2007.
Sellers at The Sea View at Amber Road are asking for slightly over S$1,000 psf, compared with the sub-sale prices of around S$1,200 psf to S$1,500 psf earlier.
The fall in sub-sale prices will no doubt further compound the problems faced by the developers, who are trying to lure back buyers into the show units with more carrots.
It seems that the worst has yet to come for the private residential market.
No respite in sight for falling office rents
Office rents in prime districts, which have already shown signs of weariness recently, could dive due to a huge stock of office space that is rising amid tough times and rising job losses. Singapore is being hit hard by the falling foreign direct investment as the small economy relies heavily on foreign participation in its economy.
An international consultancy put the expected rent fall to as much as 40 per cent of 2008 rent by 2010 due to the following reasons:
(a) So far this year, pre-lease agreements by tenants for office space to be available in 2009 and 2010 are estimated to be only 30 per cent.
(b) A total of 10.7 million sq ft of office space will be available by 2013 - of which 15 per cent of the space or 2.7 million sq ft will be ready by 2010.
(c) Demand, which averaged about 2 million sq ft a year in the past two years, is expected to fall by more than half, and possibly to just 500,000 sq ft a year.
Prime office rents may fall from a high of S$14.20 per sq ft a month in December 2008 to S$12 psf a month in 2009 and further to S$8 psf in 2010 – in the meantime, prime office vacancy rates are set to go up by easily more than 10 per cent.
Office vacancy will shoot from mid 2009
With more new supply of office space coming on stream in 2009 and 2010, the vacancy rate will rise, and this will have a negative implication for office rents.
In all, about 1.7 million sq ft of new offices are slated for completion this year and they include 71 Robinson Road, the Straits Trading Building redevelopment, Tampines Grande and an extension to 78 Shenton Way.
In 2010, another 2.8 million sq ft of new office space will be added into the stock, followed by a further 2.5 million sq ft in 2011.
A market observer pointed out that Just this year alone there may be some 500,000 sq ft of office space without takers, due to the corporate shake-up which is taking place throughout the globe.
In the mean time, the migration of backroom operations of the major financial institutions, such as banks, from the Central Business District (CBD) to lower cost areas continues.
Prepared by Sam Gian - Independent Real Estate Sales Trainer