[quote=jc]Missed this... easy.. flippers and those successful sub sale units within a month or two.. flippers start with 1% and usually takes back in excess of 25% or much much more.Originally Posted by Condorich
[quote=jc]Missed this... easy.. flippers and those successful sub sale units within a month or two.. flippers start with 1% and usually takes back in excess of 25% or much much more.Originally Posted by Condorich
[quote=Condorich]Then it is not comparable to someone who has exercised the option.Originally Posted by jc
[quote=jc]Sub Sale = Exercised optionsOriginally Posted by Condorich
Better conditions to do so with Interest Only Scheme or Deferred Payment Scheme. Both gone now as it is 80% normal progressive from now on.
read carefully...
[quote=Condorich]U said "Flippers and subsale"...My statement refer to Flippers. And i know those DPS scheme for subsale. That's why i said earlier don't tell me the 2007 Mambo Jambo times.Originally Posted by jc
Why don't u quote some solid examples that occur more recently, caveat lodged, 100% profits instead of mocking at someone's 20% profit.
20% profit in 1 yr i give credit to the person. 100% profit? which unit, i want to learn.
[quote=jc]Sorry if I come across as mocking you. I don't mean to. I'll try to give just one example as I need effort to dig more up and at risk of revealing the successful strategies by savvy investors. Caveat is that the analysis is based on caveat lodged which may not be accurate at all. That's for those who are more advanced.Originally Posted by Condorich
Ok let me clarfy my point, above 20% i.e. 100% within a year (be it flippers or sub sale). My point is that 20% is really not much.
Based on what you asked for, caveats lodged. Please study the following which were lodged in 04 Jun 09 and 04 Mar 10 (8 months to 10 months for max period and it is definitely less than 12 months).
18 Marina Boulevard #24-06 99 Yrs Fr 14/07/2005 $1600 753 $1205k 04 Jun 09
18 Marina Boulevard #24-06 99 Yrs Fr 14/07/2005 $2296 753 $1730k 04 Mar 10
Now let's try to show the margins. Not subjected to the sellers stamp duty for property bought and sold within a year as they are bought before the announcement date. Rough workings but still can be used as proof.
Key assumption paying only 20% but no since it is at advance stage of development.
1. $1205k + Stamp (31k) = $1236k
2. Original buyer down a total of 20% (assuming normal progressive and 80% loan, margin higher if at 90% or other schemes - if it is still available). = Capital outlay of = $247k
3. Done Deal at $1730K
4. Gross margin $1730K -$1236K = $494k
5. Margin level = $494k / 247K = 200% gain excluding commission which can vary.
Which is definitely more than your 20%. Please note that if it is under IAS or NPS at 10%, Margins are definitely higher. let us work and try on the NPS at 10%
1. $1205k + Stamp (31k) = $1236K
2. Original buyer down a total of 10% (assuming normal progressive and 90% loan) = Capital outlay of $124k
3. Done Deal at $1730K
4. Gross margin $1730K - $1236k = $494k
5. Margin level = $494k / $124k = 398% gain excluding commission which can vary.
The margins are even higher for Interest Only / Deferred Payment Scheme. Figure that out yourself.
Key Assumption if they are paying 100%
$1730k - $1231K = $500 gross margin. That's about 41%.
I'll need time and effort to truely convince you that even above 100% is achievable but please do with the example above until I find one. Just making a statement that 20% is really not much. Hope you understand my point.
Expert Investors, please provide more example if you are free and willing to share. Which I doubt that they will be willing to reveal their secret here.
Marina Bay Residence, do you know where it is? It is not for you or any other oridinary folks as you would have placed your money there instead of the 20% gain elsewhere. (No offence).
Forget to add that the loans will kick in in phases, so you are not likely to pay 100% at a go. i.e 20% down and monthly installments over the maximum loan period.. the longer it is, the less capital involved within a year. Margin is the net profit over the net cost of holding (all money paid till disposal of house).
As for the 1 year time frame. Caveats are lagging so you should look for caveats lodged between Jun 2009 (1st quarter 2009 buys) and (1st quarter sales - which should lodged by 2nd Quarter 2010). Look at ultra rich sector where the meat is.
Which means deals done now.. If done later... more meat though the 1 year time line may be breeched. I will wait for more meat for at least 1 quarter more.
20% .... look elsewhere.
Last edited by Condorich; 14-04-10 at 05:14.
Some minor corrections required in the Gross Profit margin required.
[(I2-I1)/I1] and not (I2/I1). Recalled it as a PSLE type question many years ago. But the result is still consistent.
Formula to Calculate Percent Increase
http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/67764.html
20% capital gain on the property valuation = 100% gain on investment bec of the 5 x leverage, i.e. pay 20% downpayment not full price...For any investor to make that within a year is a very nice P&L.Originally Posted by Condorich
Of cos, I am not saying that only D15 can make that kinda money. Everywhere else can, but some CCR supporters here only think the traditional prime districts can do it. It all depends on what price you bought and what price you exit. The fundamental rule of a successful investment is buy low sell high. It does not matter where the location is. As long as it's popular, people will be willing to pay higher price for it.
[QUOTE=proud owner]Depends on how you define the basket. The whole of Singapore island can be one basket. D15 can be one basket. If you put all your monies in one project, i.e. buying several units within one development, then it certainly is putting all eggs in one basket. But if you put monies in different projects or different types of units eg. 1 bedder, 2 bedder, 3 bedder, penthouse, then it is different baskets bec all these target to different buyers.Originally Posted by DC33_2008
Of cos if I can buy multiple properties in D15, I certainly have the dough to buy prime districts. But my investment criteria and risk appetitie is different. In the worst case scenario, if market crashes, I will hv to stay or rent out at low price or force sell if I cannot hold. So instead of paying high for a mickey mouse unit in CCR, I prefer to buy something bigger in the RCR. At the minimum, a 2 bedder is the minimum size that a small family can squeeze in. When I see pple snapping up all the one bedders or studio units in CCR, I wonder who would want to stay long in these units.
Of cos, some may think the rental yield for these mickey mouse units are better cos of the lower price. Then again, to each its own. I hv seen many many foreigners and expats staying in city fringe and sub-urban areas. Singapore is too small to talk about prime locations.
Heavy traffic??? It is everywhere in Singapore during peak hours. I find it hilarious when pple say D15 has the most heavy traffic. Everyday I drive to / fro CBD from D15, and it takes me only 20 mins at most even at the heavest traffic conditions.
If you think D15 at sub $1000 psf is not your cuppa, by all means go and pay $2000 to $3000 psf for the prime districts.
Wrong conclusion.
If I didn't remember wrongly, you (&/or somebody) mentioned before that CCR too high risk because prices transacted up and down too much right? Precisely because when the prices transacted can go up and down too much then you would have the advantage to time the buy and sell with much better profits. The difference will definitely be much much greater than your D15 which is more for own stay and hence up and down not too much and hence less risky right? (Less risky => less profits, simple as that). Just as you said, you return is 20% of purchased property value. If you have bought in CCR, the profits as a % of property purchased value will easily have been >50% now. (I think I am sharing too much. Worse is I don't get appreciated and get hum-tum by others. )
Originally Posted by Blue
20 mins in start-stop traffic? That is worse than driving for 30 mins in a smooth traffic. By the way, CCR D9-D11 most places just need no more than 10 mins to reach CBD (depending on which part of CBD you are going). Don't think you can reach Orchard in 20 mins during heaviest traffic conditions. D9-D11 area within 3km from Orchard can reach Orchard within 5 mins even during heaviest traffic conditions.
[quote=Blue]Originally Posted by proud owner
[QUOTE=teddybear]20 mins in start-stop traffic? That is worse than driving for 30 mins in a smooth traffic. By the way, CCR D9-D11 most places just need no more than 10 mins to reach CBD (depending on which part of CBD you are going). Don't think you can reach Orchard in 20 mins during heaviest traffic conditions. D9-D11 area within 3km from Orchard can reach Orchard within 5 mins even during heaviest traffic conditions.
Gd for u if u go to Orchard Rd to window shop everyday. I go to Orchard Rd maybe only once a month during the weekend. And during the wkends, it takes me at most 10 mins to reach.
U rich bear stay HDB but buy Orchard Rd just to window shop there everyday wor.
I poor man, buy D15 and go to work in CBD everyday.
[quote=Blue]20% capital gain on the property valuation = 100% gain on investment bec of the 5 x leverage, i.e. pay 20% downpayment not full price...For any investor to make that within a year is a very nice P&L.
Of cos, I am not saying that only D15 can make that kinda money. Everywhere else can, but some CCR supporters here only think the traditional prime districts can do it. It all depends on what price you bought and what price you exit. The fundamental rule of a successful investment is buy low sell high. It does not matter where the location is. As long as it's popular, people will be willing to pay higher price for it.[/quote]
Excellent! Do it in double quick time is even better!
Wrong argument! I are not talking about rich or poor or need to go Orchard to shop or not. I am talking about where we should buy properties (regardless of own stay or investment) which can give us the best profit (paper or real if we sell). As such, my reasoning is CCR within 3km of Orchard is the best bet. Furthermore, getting to anywhere within CBD is so much more fuss-free as compared to D15, especially going to the reputable schools many around the vicinity of lower Bukit Timah Road & Newton. The market has already agreed with me as transacted prices around such vicinity hitting high of $3000+ now although the historical high is actually about $5600+ psf during 2007/2008 peak (so more room to go?). What is the highest transacted price in D15 now and what is the highest transacted price previously during 2007/2008 peak? (Seems that D15 current transacted is already above 2007/2008 peak and how much more do we expect?). You logic that D15 is the most popular and hence is the best place to buy properties and can give highest profit (as you cited 20%) holds no water.
[quote=Blue]Originally Posted by teddybear
Last edited by teddybear; 14-04-10 at 10:44.
I think any districts can make money lah. Its your timing of your entry and exit that is important. Marketing timing always beats asset allocation any time in any investment - that is what your learn in CFA isn't it? Those stupid fund managers who spend time allocating assets underperform the market index. But I prefer to diversify across districts - some in west, some in east and some in fringe - and I must say my investments outside prime are doing well. Not touching the prime districts now because I think prices are quite bubbly. I always believe in placing my bets in "developing areas" instead of "developed" areas - more room to grow mah. Haha.
[QUOTE=teddybear]Wrong argument! I are not talking about rich or poor or need to go Orchard to shop or not. I am talking about where we should buy properties (regardless of own stay or investment) which can give us the best profit (paper or real if we sell). As such, my reasoning is CCR within 3km of Orchard is the best bet. Furthermore, getting to anywhere within CBD is so much more fuss-free as compared to D15, especially going to the reputable schools many around the vicinity of lower Bukit Timah Road & Newton. The market has already agreed with me as transacted prices around such vicinity hitting high of $3000+ now although the historical high is actually about $5600+ psf during 2007/2008 peak (so more room to go?). What is the highest transacted price in D15 now and what is the highest transacted price previously during 2007/2008 peak? (Seems that D15 current transacted is already above 2007/2008 peak and how much more do we expect?). You logic that D15 is the most popular and hence is the best place to buy properties and can give highest profit (as you cited 20%) holds no water.
Right right....I'll be awesomely surprised that anyone would pay more than SGD 3M to stay in a studio @ $5600 psf in Orchard Rd. Then again, I do hope it does go to that level in Orchard Rd, so D15 can go up to $3000 psf likewise! Then I will experience $2000 psf gain, i.e. 200% valuation gain or 1000% investment gain on leverage!
Alright, everyone, look no further, go and wack all Orchard Rd properties cos BEAR says it can go to $5600psf wor. Not enuf money never mind, just wack all the studios...only $600K (20%) downpayment...just sell your HDB and put all your coffin savings in Orchard Rd!
last week, there was a fund just off loaded about 20 units at around $100 psf below market. Sold out within days
Market timing is indeed most important but it is never easy to do. Just look at the crash and surge in the last year, it has confounded even property experts. It is indeed also true that the rising tide will lift all boats. But the prime has proven time and again to be the last to fall and the first to rise. More rich locals and foreigners staying there, with many more aspiring to stay there, thus holding up prices. Prices of properties in 9, 10, 11 have not reached the records set in 2007 compared to the rest, which are mostly at an all time high. Thus prime is probably the safer bet. Though I totally agree with placing bets in "developing areas". How about betting on "developing areas" within the prime???Originally Posted by Wild Falcon
Hi Teddy Bear...i agree..u are sharing too much...just keep quite and we all know what's happening...Originally Posted by teddybear
Shhhhh...another carrot in the making. Carrots trying to redeem themselves. They need other carrots in order to get out.Originally Posted by luzman
a raddish thinks others is a carrot...what an idiotOriginally Posted by Blue
You know definitely people are becoming carrot head ripe for choping when they are willing to pay for a RCR property that is not at least 25% less than a CCR property. For that, there are a lot in D15 as prices get transacted close to or >$1800 psf. For that sort of price, what do the buyers think they can sell at later? The ceiling of $2000 psf in D15? If they pay $2200 or more psf for CCR property (still available in CCR for now), at least they know that the ceiling is at $5600 psf and there is more room for upside!
And don't tell me about the D15 boutique apartments such as plenty of those in Telok Karu. Doubt those can even sell above $1500 psf!
Originally Posted by Blue
[quote=Condorich]OMG your 100% gain is based on the 20% downpayment Enuff said, i thought u r referring to 100% up from the purchased price for goodness sake.Originally Posted by jc
I know MBR better than u. I don't have studio there now. I have put $ in other place. Sail n MBR has a lot of owners also has HDB address. So where have u invested? Not the Sail i hope
Last edited by jc; 14-04-10 at 23:15.
[QUOTE=Condorich]Originally Posted by jcMBR sold out In Dec 2006 pal.Marina Bay Residences has been fully sold; 14 December 2006
The developers of the Marina Bay Residences announced today that the development has been fully sold.
“The sale result reflects local and overseas buyers’ confidence in the Singapore economy and outlook going forward, as well as the Singapore Government’s vision in developing the Marina Bay precinct,” said Mr Kan Kum Wah, Head of Residential Marketing for BFC Development Pte Ltd.
Across the whole development, the average price achieved was in the region of S$1,850 per square foot.
The planned public launch of the Marina Bay Residences this Friday has been cancelled.
The developers, Cheung Kong (Holdings), Hongkong Land and Keppel Land would like to thank buyers of the Marina Bay Residences for their support.
Piet de Jong
Direct: +65 6230 5117
Main: +65 6538 9211
Mobile: +65 9830 7311
14 December 2006
[QUOTE=Property_Owner]Sorry, my mistake. Mistaken the lease date as transaction date.Originally Posted by Condorich
[quote=jc]Can't be bothered with you too much now. Ask and yet dont appreciate.. let me repeat the salient points. Took me some effort to find u know?Originally Posted by Condorich
1. I say others gain more than 20% or more... maybe 100%.. and not definitely 100%. The point is gain more than 20% than yours. Indeed there is, just that I don't have much time to find and crunch the numbers. My point is >20% to >100% and not >100%. Harder to find if >100%. Yours on paper, useless, mine real deals, harder as even there are paper gains, owners are not selling if they have bullish views and right about it. and their Paper Gain (go figure yourself now if you still don't get it....)
I have already said in the earlier post. The likely examples are those transacted in the 1st and 2nd quater of 2009 and SOLD in the 1st or 2nd Quarter in 2010. Caveats takes a times and so the tail end transactions should be those from the 2nd and 3rd Quarter of 2010. We are just into the 2nd Quarter 2010.
Give this some time.. If I am free enough to find examples for the benefit of others, I will post and share after 2nd quarter has passed.
But I have already made by point. Better Gains Elsewhere at More than 20% (than yours). Had indeed used to 100% payment model and its around 41%... but do remember, that's for 3 months back. Now and 3 Months later... It will be even higher on PAPER LIKE WHAT YOU SAID. but not transacted. Enough Proof made? Read it carefully please. TQ.
You will never know where I have invested cause I am not going to reveal too much even under the veil of anonymity. Its like my dick is bigger than yours or my car is better than yours, my gf has bigger boobs than yours that kind of argument. Save it for the wife. Kiddish and seen it used too often here (including others - so please dont take too much offence) to save face or win arguments.
Ok, let's try to respect each other more. Peace.... Thanks.
[quote=Property_Owner]No worries Mr Heavy Weight.Originally Posted by Property_Owner
Can I claim that I own 100 properties more than you and a few more resort islands? Since forum allows talk cock sing song and claim whatever you want to claim? Just joking. I rather choose to believe what others said about your holdings.
[quote=jc]jc... just to refresh your memory.... more than 20% within days or weeks could only be referring to Flippers and short term holding of less than 1 year (whether 20% or 100% paid).Originally Posted by Condorich
Don't come back and ask me to give proof based on 100% paid up within a 1 year period to win the debate. Though my statement would still be correct if you paid up 100% for a completed project and enjoy more than 20% capital gains on paper. For that you have to find as I am not going to do the extra research and analysis for you here. Do note that transactions based on caveats, are deals that are lagging, in boom times, seller is loser, in reverse, buyer is loser. A 1 year period could mean sky and hell for some. My example MBR in 2010. Can dig further for the rest but am not wasting my time to prove to myself something that I already know. You can pay someone else to teach you.
1 year ago, STI Index 1300 - 1400..
1 year later, STI Index exceeds 3000
Net gain in index = 3000 -1300 / 1300 = 131 % gain.. anyhow hit the right stocks in SGX would also result in winnings. In between 25% to 75% gain within a 1 year period PLENTY. Of course, the savy ones are the ones who made the right choice and have bigger margins. your 20% paper gain is a mockery.
Move to stocks if you more savy there.
Gd Luck!
property is better than stocks and property like double bay residence in simei which has high upside potential and high rental yield....
[quote=Condorich]Originally Posted by jc
... bell rang ... enough discussion on One Amber ... time to move to another project ...Originally Posted by tanumy, 15 April 2010 8.06 am