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Thread: Property market sentiments?

  1. #91
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    but this is your agent friend, surely won't be a bluff bid? anyway, you said the market is crazy, quote a crazy price and if the ang mor still want it then let him have it!

    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    yeah, reno finished, this is my 2nd week staying there.

    but an agent friend brought his angmor client who was looking for a retirement home, and i did a 10min open house house. agent call back offer the next morning.

    but wife reluctant to sell, esp when the dog has gotten used to shit in the right corner of the right toilet.

  2. #92
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    I know i'm in 2 minds about it actually. But if i'm offerd thus when the whole area is a construction site, what will the pricing be like when everything comes online early 2010? Wife wants me to wait - we hv adequate reserves for now anyways

    But it is v v tempting

  3. #93
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    Default Stampede

    Property market has gone crazy, buyers all rushing in at the same time. Mix of genuine buyers, speculators, investors. All were on the side line now jumping in. I don't know where this will end.

  4. #94
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    the scary thing about trends is that the masses, rational or not, make the market.

    if 1 person say pigs can fly, no one will believe. If 100,000 people say pigs can fly, then pigs can fly.

  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    the scary thing about trends is that the masses, rational or not, make the market.

    if 1 person say pigs can fly, no one will believe. If 100,000 people say pigs can fly, then pigs can fly.
    Not yet from a technical analysis of PPI, the next major resistance is at 220 and above, we are just boucing off at 140 friend, the 1996 propery bubble actually went beyond the major resistance (even technical analysis will fail to predict that). But this could take a few more years.

  6. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    the scary thing about trends is that the masses, rational or not, make the market.

    if 1 person say pigs can fly, no one will believe. If 100,000 people say pigs can fly, then pigs can fly.
    Gfoo, sorry for my 2 cents. My thoughts are more bad news to come. Maybe after June. This stock rally will not stays long. Once reach 2500 may crash. For sellers who believe market is good and move prices up few hundreds psf, good luck to your for doing so. Those smart sellers will let go now to buyers willing to chase market without moving up prices. Bank valuation has no chance at all this few weeks. If market is really moving up, do you think bank don't want to earn more? This current situation is also cause by agents that knows nothing about stock and the REAL MARKET value in Singapore. believe me, offer comes in, cash out. Don't believe the sky.

  7. #97
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    no worries PO, i share your views completely.

  8. #98
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    CityDev ... broke 2 major resistances with strong volume within 2 months. Sooner or later, bullish technical must be proven by bullish data ... may be this week US data is going to be good
    Attached Images Attached Images

  9. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    1. The stock market has already priced in the chance of S&P downgrading Britain ... exactly when nobody knows. The point is if market chooses to ignore bad news and focus on good news ... you have to just follow the market trend and increase your long position when the next major resistance is broken .. this is what a professional trader will do

    2. Ok, other than S&P, Dry Bulk Shipping Index is already up continuously for 17 days. Crude oil price is up at 62USD to everyone's surprise. HK futures has suddenly spiked 800+ points today ... we have URA new homes sales index > 1000 continuously since Feb... Indian stock market rallying 17% recently ... need I say more?

    I guess a fundametalist will never agree with a technical analyst
    Funda your head lah, I'm not a fundamentalist. I just giving my share to balance up and you always don't re-focus to our discussion and spourt new subjects..

    1. May I know what is the market trend for the next 2 weeks and how you derive that? Thats what a lot of ppl do accompany by all the analyst in pre-lehman leh.. Including GIC & TH.. but why huh? You so good you must have short post-lehman all the way to March and what is it.. increase your long position after that in April right?

    Ok, save the sacrasm, ultimately, what I'm trying to say is, Market, Index, Credit Rating are all unpredictable and in fact, full of volatility at present times. Everyone are using all factors be it breakpoint or historical data to forecast but none are soothsayer. AND I hope you Mr Kiat don't publish illustration base on bullish element ONLY. Thats all, simple right? After all, you may be right in the next 3 mths and it ok.. just give a balance view..

    2. Wa.. You are really a big hard-core bull raiser.. and since when crude oil at 62 is everyone surprise? Anyway..

    Ok. Our government last Thu still maintained its forecast of the economy shrinking by between 6 per cent and 9 per cent. External demand from the United States and Europe has not returned. Inventory though lower now but yet to led any "kick-start" with exports still at an unexpected monthly fall in April. For US, housing sector, rising retrenchments, GM Chp11 still looming. First-quarter non-oil domestic exports fell by 7.4 per cent from last year's fourth quarter. Resident unemployment rate was still at 4.8 per cent, fund manager yet to return with their favourite less maybe F&N and a couple and they are letting the small player having the fun.. NEED I SAY MORE?

    Can I bring in H1N1? Since you India Election also can dump in..


  10. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    one caution to pet owners. Until the Central Park is built, there's no where for the dog to take a natural shit. it's all concrete, and it's kinda bad walking the dog over to ORQ, and letting her have a shit where inconsiderate husbands illegally park while waiting to pick up their wives.
    Ok, this gonna be my favourite.. how are you going to walk your dog then? I always thinking of walking my dog along shenton, cecil, anson.. etc. So.. hmmm..

    If 1 dog poo at shenton concrete, no one bother and big brother will take action.

    If 100,000 dogs poo at shenton concrete, will they build a dog-run at shenton?

    I can help if you wanna to start the drive, I got 3 dogs..

  11. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by apple3
    Funda your head lah, I'm not a fundamentalist. I just giving my share to balance up and you always don't re-focus to our discussion and spourt new subjects..

    1. May I know what is the market trend for the next 2 weeks and how you derive that? Thats what a lot of ppl do accompany by all the analyst in pre-lehman leh.. Including GIC & TH.. but why huh? You so good you must have short post-lehman all the way to March and what is it.. increase your long position after that in April right?

    Ok, save the sacrasm, ultimately, what I'm trying to say is, Market, Index, Credit Rating are all unpredictable and in fact, full of volatility at present times. Everyone are using all factors be it breakpoint or historical data to forecast but none are soothsayer. AND I hope you Mr Kiat don't publish illustration base on bullish element ONLY. Thats all, simple right? After all, you may be right in the next 3 mths and it ok.. just give a balance view..

    2. Wa.. You are really a big hard-core bull raiser.. and since when crude oil at 62 is everyone surprise? Anyway..

    Ok. Our government last Thu still maintained its forecast of the economy shrinking by between 6 per cent and 9 per cent. External demand from the United States and Europe has not returned. Inventory though lower now but yet to led any "kick-start" with exports still at an unexpected monthly fall in April. For US, housing sector, rising retrenchments, GM Chp11 still looming. First-quarter non-oil domestic exports fell by 7.4 per cent from last year's fourth quarter. Resident unemployment rate was still at 4.8 per cent, fund manager yet to return with their favourite less maybe F&N and a couple and they are letting the small player having the fun.. NEED I SAY MORE?

    Can I bring in H1N1? Since you India Election also can dump in..

    Yah, market already priced in all the negative fundementals you & the bears in this forum keep repeating. How do you explain property stocks are up 10% today on average with confirmed 1st H1NI case in Singapore? Are the funds who bought up large number of shares in Hong Kong, India and Singapore nuts?

    I do not believe in any publicly known fundamental news as a guidance of future movement becos they are simply outdated and priced into the market. On the contrary, the market may have already priced in something that you have yet to know.... we will soon find out.

    And to answer your question, the market trend for next 2 weeks is bullish because STI closed above 2,283 with good volume today. Of course, if H1NI suddenly kills half of Singaporeans next 2 weeks ...

  12. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    I do not believe in any publicly known fundamental news as a guidance of future movement becos they are simply outdated and priced into the market. On the contrary, the market may have already priced in something that you have yet to know.... we will soon find out.
    Hmmm ... me know nothing much about those chime chime technical analysis or fundamentalist, etc. etc. .... but if TA is not using funda/old news to do analysis, then wat do they use har????? Those charts got old data included leh ... *scratch head*

    Maybe mr apple is no bull no bear, but likes to play with bull leh ....

  13. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by cheerful
    Hmmm ... me know nothing much about those chime chime technical analysis or fundamentalist, etc. etc. .... but if TA is not using funda/old news to do analysis, then wat do they use har????? Those charts got old data included leh ... *scratch head*

    Maybe mr apple is no bull no bear, but likes to play with bull leh ....
    Yes, TA does use old data in order to plot to moving average, resistance and support lines. A pure fundamentalist, will dismiss anything technical i.e. he/she will think TA is bullshit in helping to make/time an investment decision. For example, in TA, 200 day moving average is widely regarded as a divider between bull & bear and used by lots of analysts for their calls for long/short. A pure fundamentalist will never believe in that.

    In general, a professional fundementalist will be better in predicting long term trend. For example, bcos Singapore governement is good, clean and Singaporeans has high saving rate, limited land, so must be good idea to buy property for long term in SG .. this is pure fundamental analysis. Whereas in TA, we will seek to predict the market direction in the short term (typically no more than 2 weeks) by reading bullish or bearsh signal. For example, if CityDev breaks down below 200d MA, immediately start selling your properties in Singapore and vice versa. So far, we have already 2 bullish signals ...1st is the STI breaking above 1,950, 2nd is today, breaking above 2,283 (same for CityDev & other property stocks).
    Last edited by jitkiat; 27-05-09 at 22:10.

  14. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    one caution to pet owners. Until the Central Park is built, there's no where for the dog to take a natural shit. it's all concrete, and it's kinda bad walking the dog over to ORQ, and letting her have a shit where inconsiderate husbands illegally park while waiting to pick up their wives.
    Just try not to let your dog shit at my spot at the slip road adjacent to the marina especially around 6-7 pm until the missus leaves ORQ...

    Thank you in advance hor....paisey for being inconsiderate, but now i've moved myself to the car park at the Partyworld KTV nearer to Tg Pagar coz i see too many cars there blocking traffic..

    Sure to drive ppl nuts...

  15. #105
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    Perhaps I should have just quoted somebody else's TA ... save my breath .. this is really excellent TA

    http://www.sias.org.sg/sites/sias.or...lip140509.html

  16. #106
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    ahh .. oic ... like that means the tech analysis is not suitable or appropriate to be used to predict/forecast the property mkt izit which is supposed to be mid or long-term in nature rt???

    If correlation is not 1-1, then wat kinda ratio would make more sense for us to see the link stock & property? Can it be done in the first place?

  17. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by cheerful
    ahh .. oic ... like that means the tech analysis is not suitable or appropriate to be used to predict/forecast the property mkt izit which is supposed to be mid or long-term in nature rt???

    If correlation is not 1-1, then wat kinda ratio would make more sense for us to see the link stock & property? Can it be done in the first place?
    Read the TA on PPI I posted a few times to this forum.

    For the ratio, take the All property index divide by PPI loh

  18. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    Yah, market already priced in all the negative fundementals you & the bears in this forum keep repeating. How do you explain property stocks are up 10% today on average with confirmed 1st H1NI case in Singapore? Are the funds who bought up large number of shares in Hong Kong, India and Singapore nuts?

    I do not believe in any publicly known fundamental news as a guidance of future movement becos they are simply outdated and priced into the market. On the contrary, the market may have already priced in something that you have yet to know.... we will soon find out.

    And to answer your question, the market trend for next 2 weeks is bullish because STI closed above 2,283 with good volume today. Of course, if H1NI suddenly kills half of Singaporeans next 2 weeks ...
    How do you explain property stocks are up 10% today on average with confirmed 1st H1NI case in Singapore?

    Then? Sorry, maybe I'm stupid but whats there to explain? No one expect the stocks market to crash upon the 1st confirmed case especially after Uncle Koh had explained in great length. And so? I'm confuse, I thought we are on broad base and now you zoom in on property counter? And what is so different that need to be explain? I meant.. shares.. counter.. so Wilmar at 4.71 so cooking oil are selling good? Pal, there are many reasons for a stock movement and you can't use today CDL and Cap movement/volume to justify anything yet!

    And talk about fund, you just name it. Aberdeen? Superfund? Lion? Come on, you don't turn my words. They are not nut and will they be call nut or saint no one know and thats NOT MY POINT! Goodness, I'm saying the volume from them is very minimum. They are still parking somewhere. Please read! Thank you!

  19. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    Perhaps I should have just quoted somebody else's TA ... save my breath .. this is really excellent TA

    http://www.sias.org.sg/sites/sias.or...lip140509.html
    Fairly well. But.. what does this got to do with property???

    hahahha.. hey, you are using short-term tools/methology for long-term. And both of them are on wideness corner. This is beginning to look like shareinvestor.com and not condosingapore.com. Hardly anyone I came across using so TA or FA to quantify property price at short term.

    lol.. Can I not having a property but I sell you first? I collect the full amount on T+3 and upon TOP I deliver the unit to you. In between none of your business, I could sell out buy back, buy back sell out.. even sell more than one or buy one sell two.. also can buy down average or trail loss... quite fun

    hahhahhahah.. If you know what I mean

  20. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by cheerful
    Hmmm ... me know nothing much about those chime chime technical analysis or fundamentalist, etc. etc. .... but if TA is not using funda/old news to do analysis, then wat do they use har????? Those charts got old data included leh ... *scratch head*

    Maybe mr apple is no bull no bear, but likes to play with bull leh ....
    Both equally fun..

  21. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by apple3
    Both equally fun..
    It wont be fun for desperate bears when STI closed above 2,283 today

  22. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    Read the TA on PPI I posted a few times to this forum.

    For the ratio, take the All property index divide by PPI loh
    Cheerful, my opinion is don't bother lah. Even URA took a quarter to generate the index and here Mr Kiat is per day TA charting on breaking point here and holding point there with all the triangle to affect on the index.

    Wa lau, I finally understand where you coming from after see your reference site. Please lah, 2 different good indicators or methology doesn't mean combine will give a ultra power gauge to property pricing lah. Even BT put 6mths for STI against Property. I thought you have gen-x methology that could even include HDB resale index.

    you somemore even use S&P, crude oil, shipping index!! India election rally... hahahha.. You really so hard up to bulldozer the property sentimental in this forum meh?? Just because of your DB?

    hahhahah.. ai ya.. don't take it too hard, go on lah..

  23. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    It wont be fun for desperate bears when STI closed above 2,283 today
    True. I must be a lucky gummy bear cause I short GAR today.

  24. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by apple3
    Cheerful, my opinion is don't bother lah. Even URA took a quarter to generate the index and here Mr Kiat is per day TA charting on breaking point here and holding point there with all the triangle to affect on the index.

    Wa lau, I finally understand where you coming from after see your reference site. Please lah, 2 different good indicators or methology doesn't mean combine will give a ultra power gauge to property pricing lah. Even BT put 6mths for STI against Property. I thought you have gen-x methology that could even include HDB resale index.

    you somemore even use S&P, crude oil, shipping index!! India election rally... hahahha.. You really so hard up to bulldozer the property sentimental in this forum meh?? Just because of your DB?

    hahhahah.. ai ya.. don't take it too hard, go on lah..
    Well, at least I contributed my TA to this forum, if you don't appreciate it other people will. I am eagerly waiting to see what kind of so-called timing to buy you are going to contribute to this forum I guess you will just keep saying "no hurry lah", "sure go sideways one lah" ...

  25. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Begbie
    Just try not to let your dog shit at my spot at the slip road adjacent to the marina especially around 6-7 pm until the missus leaves ORQ...

    Thank you in advance hor....paisey for being inconsiderate, but now i've moved myself to the car park at the Partyworld KTV nearer to Tg Pagar coz i see too many cars there blocking traffic..

    Sure to drive ppl nuts...
    lol sorries dude, but sometimes the jam does get irritating when it's wholly unecessary.

    nvm. gimme your chia pai, make and color of car. i post it up on notice board, and advise people not to launch high-floor water balloons

  26. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    Well, at least I contributed my TA to this forum, if you don't appreciate it other people will. I am eagerly waiting to see what kind of so-called timing to buy you are going to contribute to this forum I guess you will just keep saying "no hurry lah", "sure go sideways one lah" ...
    Hmm.. No one is saying you are not contributing and thats perfectly your right. I mean, good or bad are both equally a form of contribution and likewise, you could see ppl appreciate or criticise on both end. Thats the beauty of a forum.

    As for my analysis/posting, by all mean do go ahead and judge, comment or criticise as you deem fit. It absolutely perfectly alright.

  27. #117
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    Default Geithner as China's ally

    It is interesting that China and US are forced into a very special relationship as now economy tops the agenda and I am surprised Geithner can speak Mandarin ?! Extract from BT:

    Geithner as China's ally
    Beijing may well cite its fear that surging US debt risks devastating the value of its estimated US$1.5 trillion in dollar-denominated investments. But Mr Geithner's visit is shaping up as more of a confidence-building exercise than a forum for hashing out concrete plans to address the many thorny issues in the Sino-US economic relationship.
    'China may again raise concerns about the safety of its assets in the United States, but it will probably not issue any detailed proposals or to-do lists,' said Xi Junyang, a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.
    'Its messages are more likely to be diplomatic and friendly,' he said. One reason that Chinese leaders may be wary of pressing Mr Geithner too hard is because they see him as a crucial ally in Washington.
    Beijing worries that the Democrat-dominated US Congress may turn to protectionism against Chinese-made goods. Experience has taught China that the most effective way to make its voice heard in Washington is to go to straight to the top.
    'It is better for the Chinese leadership to talk with Geithner and (President Barack) Obama than to lobby the House or the Senate,' said Tao Xie, an expert on Sino-US relations at Beijing Foreign Studies University.
    Mr Geithner has a tough act to follow. Henry Paulson, his predecessor, made China the centre of his international focus, repeatedly visiting Beijing and launching regular cabinet-level meetings.
    For his part, Mr Geithner, a Mandarin speaker, has taken pains to make amends after an early misstep in January in which he called China a currency manipulator, a label Treasury declined to apply in a report to Congress in April.
    He has succeeded in putting this early slip-up behind him, and his eagerness to mend fences has cemented Beijing's belief that the Obama administration will treat China as an equal, not as a country it can lecture.
    'They are getting on to better terms as they get to know each other better,' Mr Tao said. 'The Chinese leadership has very high expectations for President Obama

  28. #118
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    Other weekend launches include Balcon East in Upper East Coast Road. Tong Eng Group started sales at its 37-unit development on Thursday last week and managed to sell 28 units. Prices ranged from just below $500,000 to $1.39 million, with the one- to two-bedders costing about $850 psf, and three-bedders at $780 psf, said Savills Residential director Phylicia Ang.



    Next month, new re-launches could include the 91-unit Nathan Residences in Nathan Road and Frasers’ 330-unit leasehold project near the Woodleigh MRT station. The former’s preview last September at an average of $2,000 psf met with no success.



    Frasers has reconfigured the layout in the Woodleigh project, which previously had 300 units, to accommodate the more affordable one-bedders of 400 sq ft. The rest will be two-, three- and four-bedders. Prices will be ‘at the upper end of $750 psf to $780 psf’, said Mr Cheang.

  29. #119
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    Do you have the full article for this?

    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    Other weekend launches include Balcon East in Upper East Coast Road. Tong Eng Group started sales at its 37-unit development on Thursday last week and managed to sell 28 units. Prices ranged from just below $500,000 to $1.39 million, with the one- to two-bedders costing about $850 psf, and three-bedders at $780 psf, said Savills Residential director Phylicia Ang.



    Next month, new re-launches could include the 91-unit Nathan Residences in Nathan Road and Frasers’ 330-unit leasehold project near the Woodleigh MRT station. The former’s preview last September at an average of $2,000 psf met with no success.



    Frasers has reconfigured the layout in the Woodleigh project, which previously had 300 units, to accommodate the more affordable one-bedders of 400 sq ft. The rest will be two-, three- and four-bedders. Prices will be ‘at the upper end of $750 psf to $780 psf’, said Mr Cheang.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    Do you have the full article for this?
    http://blog.hotvictory.com/

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