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Thread: 8@Woodleigh (D13, 99 years Leasehold, Fraser Centrepoint)

  1. #61
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    D13 location is littered with cemetries, graves and crematoriums

  2. #62
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    And if you ever wonder why some "landed" properties are selling so cheap, you can be sure that the developer has bought very, very cheap "sewage land" from the govt. Make sure you check out the sewage system b4 you commit or else you are buying a house full of shit

    In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all if you unearth several manholes in very close vicinity to your property. T junctions, cemeteries or prayer houses behind the property, sewage points. suicide or murder in the house.... all account for big no nos in the purchase. Donch regret.... make sure you do your due diligence first.

  3. #63
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    it is Sime Rd, not Siam Rd. i used to live along University Rd. The environment in that area is very nice but driving past Sime Rd at nite really gives one the creeps with many hauntings there over the years.
    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    ever drive thru Kheam hock rd ? right thru to Siam rd? look at the amount of nice big houses there ..with the grave within 100 m ....

    i almost bought a semi D there in 2006 ... should have ... plans been made to exume the cemetery ..and the landed houses there are now worth alot more than when i saw them in 2006

  4. #64
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    Just got this invite:

    Estimated Price for 1 and 2 bedroom from about $400k ($960psf?)
    Estimated Price for 3 and 4 bedrooom from about $940k ($1000psf?)

    IF this project proves to be a sellout, and shows people are willing to pay $1000psf for 99 year cemetary land, i'm going to seriously consider migrating. I don't want to bring up my kids in a nation of morons - if i did, i would much rather bring them up in the US - at least i can subscribe to playboy there cheap.

    One questions for the lau chiaus and gurus: Does the law of relativity apply to private property in Singapore? If so and compared to cemetary condos, wouldn't prime orchard props be now worth about $50,000psf?

  5. #65
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    with developers like FEO pricing suburban projects like hillvista at 9xx to 1kpsf, how do u apply theory of relativity? That being said it shud be gd news for residents in D1
    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    Just got this invite:

    Estimated Price for 1 and 2 bedroom from about $400k ($960psf?)
    Estimated Price for 3 and 4 bedrooom from about $940k ($1000psf?)

    IF this project proves to be a sellout, and shows people are willing to pay $1000psf for 99 year cemetary land, i'm going to seriously consider migrating. I don't want to bring up my kids in a nation of morons - if i did, i would much rather bring them up in the US - at least i can subscribe to playboy there cheap.

    One questions for the lau chiaus and gurus: Does the law of relativity apply to private property in Singapore? If so and compared to cemetary condos, wouldn't prime orchard props be now worth about $50,000psf?

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    with developers like FEO pricing suburban projects like hillvista at 9xx to 1kpsf, how do u apply theory of relativity? That being said it shud be gd news for residents in D1
    If cemetary condos are priced at $1kpsf, then hillvista should be at $5kpsf, Sembawang about $2kpsf, D15 about $7kpsf etc etc

    $1kpsf for cemetary land. sheesh

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    Just got this invite:

    Estimated Price for 1 and 2 bedroom from about $400k ($960psf?)
    Estimated Price for 3 and 4 bedrooom from about $940k ($1000psf?)

    IF this project proves to be a sellout, and shows people are willing to pay $1000psf for 99 year cemetary land, i'm going to seriously consider migrating. I don't want to bring up my kids in a nation of morons - if i did, i would much rather bring them up in the US - at least i can subscribe to playboy there cheap.

    One questions for the lau chiaus and gurus: Does the law of relativity apply to private property in Singapore? If so and compared to cemetary condos, wouldn't prime orchard props be now worth about $50,000psf?
    haha this is already a nation of morons when they repeatedly cast their votes for the gang in white ~

  8. #68
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    Default wat is the fair price?

    What is the fair price to purchase for the 99LH Woodleigh new launch?

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    Quote Originally Posted by yokoosi
    What is the fair price to purchase for the 99LH Woodleigh new launch?
    Hahaha.... it really depends on which school of thought you subscribe to! Can be as low as $200psf as some forumers suggest, or as high as $1000psf!

    gfoo, actually I am surprised that the price they quoted you is so high. So far the indicative pricing I got from the ERA agents (which is the marketing agency for this project) is between $750psf to $830psf for all 2bedders to 4bedders, which works out to about $6xxK for a 2-bedder and $7xxK to $8xxK for a 3-bedder.

    Honestly, I think we have all got past the cemetary land issue. In the first place, Singapore being small as it is, which area does not have a cemetary? And in the second place, the cemetary is across the road and not on this plot. And in the third place, the cemetary has been cleared and it is now Woodleigh Park. So it is really caveat emptor. As long as the buyer is comfortable with this, there is really nothing much to shout about. The same thing can be said about reclaimed land too. Marina is on reclaimed land. Huge parts of the East Coast is on reclaimed land. Pandan and Teban Gardens is on reclaimed land. Singapore being small as it is, land is a definitely a scarce resource. At the end of the day, it is a willing buyer vs a willing seller. Who is to call the buyers morons at the end of the day? It is all a matter of perspective.

    Whilst everyone can appreciate the bay-view of the Sail, but not every family can afford the psf pricing. At the end of the day, as long as the unit is for self-stay, I do not think that paying $7xxpsf in D13 is insane. For $850K, one can get a decent sized 3-bedder at about 1150sqft. With 3 decent sized bedrooms, there is adequate space for the family, there is a nice nursery for the baby, ample storage space for all the toys, and probably also space for that live-in domestic helper, all at the city fringe. But for $850k in D1 or D9, what one gets is probably a studio or a 2-bedder. With cramped living space, livability and quality of life gets compromised. After all, it is difficult to appreciate the vast gardens, the proximity to Orchard, when a family of 3/4 is cramped side by side in a mousehole. But of course, if money is never a concern, or the party involved does not mind being highly leveraged for that potential upside, then I suppose the sky is the limit right? If that case, maybe a GCB at D9 might be the best alternative.

    My 2 cents. Hope I didn't offend any party with the above posting. If I did, pls accept my sincere apologies.

  10. #70
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    Red face

    if u are migrating, can you do us singaporeans a favor by selling ur sail at 500psf to me? we definitely need to do our utmost to bring people to their senses!


    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    If cemetary condos are priced at $1kpsf, then hillvista should be at $5kpsf, Sembawang about $2kpsf, D15 about $7kpsf etc etc

    $1kpsf for cemetary land. sheesh

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by KT_Lim
    if u are migrating, can you do us singaporeans a favor by selling ur sail at 500psf to me? we definitely need to do our utmost to bring people to their senses!
    sure thing mate - i'll put you on a really long waiting list

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by new2mondrian
    Hahaha.... it really depends on which school of thought you subscribe to! Can be as low as $200psf as some forumers suggest, or as high as $1000psf!

    gfoo, actually I am surprised that the price they quoted you is so high. So far the indicative pricing I got from the ERA agents (which is the marketing agency for this project) is between $750psf to $830psf for all 2bedders to 4bedders, which works out to about $6xxK for a 2-bedder and $7xxK to $8xxK for a 3-bedder.

    Honestly, I think we have all got past the cemetary land issue. In the first place, Singapore being small as it is, which area does not have a cemetary? And in the second place, the cemetary is across the road and not on this plot. And in the third place, the cemetary has been cleared and it is now Woodleigh Park. So it is really caveat emptor. As long as the buyer is comfortable with this, there is really nothing much to shout about. The same thing can be said about reclaimed land too. Marina is on reclaimed land. Huge parts of the East Coast is on reclaimed land. Pandan and Teban Gardens is on reclaimed land. Singapore being small as it is, land is a definitely a scarce resource. At the end of the day, it is a willing buyer vs a willing seller. Who is to call the buyers morons at the end of the day? It is all a matter of perspective.

    Whilst everyone can appreciate the bay-view of the Sail, but not every family can afford the psf pricing. At the end of the day, as long as the unit is for self-stay, I do not think that paying $7xxpsf in D13 is insane. For $850K, one can get a decent sized 3-bedder at about 1150sqft. With 3 decent sized bedrooms, there is adequate space for the family, there is a nice nursery for the baby, ample storage space for all the toys, and probably also space for that live-in domestic helper, all at the city fringe. But for $850k in D1 or D9, what one gets is probably a studio or a 2-bedder. With cramped living space, livability and quality of life gets compromised. After all, it is difficult to appreciate the vast gardens, the proximity to Orchard, when a family of 3/4 is cramped side by side in a mousehole. But of course, if money is never a concern, or the party involved does not mind being highly leveraged for that potential upside, then I suppose the sky is the limit right? If that case, maybe a GCB at D9 might be the best alternative.

    My 2 cents. Hope I didn't offend any party with the above posting. If I did, pls accept my sincere apologies.
    Your argument is fair and a very good one. Here's my humble flip side of the coin.

    I'm not comparing woodleigh to orchard or marina bay, but to other city fringe properties. D15 OA in 1Q was going for $850psf, it's FH, within walking distance to the upcoming MRT, surrounded by amenities and malls. Other condos pre run-up in D15 were priced at $650-$750. Over at D5, prices in 1Q were sub $600psf. River Valley/Tanglin was about $1k.

    My point is that the recent run up defies not only fundamentals and pricing benchmarks, but human decency as well when developers have this 'it's green shoots, so let's rip 'em and run' mentality.

    True that every part of Singapore was once a cemetary - even Sentosa Cove sits on top a rumored WW2 killing field, ion orchard sits on an 1800s cemetary etc. But modern cemetaries like Bishan was given a much longer vesting period before pte and landed properties were put up for planning. Biddadari was cleared starting 2001 and completed in 2006.

    My point as always, is pricing. Bishan started in the mid 80s really cheap due to the cemetary issue, and only started its run up in the 90s. but almost 2 decades separated the exhumation and when the first HDB families moved in. Woodleigh has barely seen a few years.

    No doubt i'm gonna get flamed for minding my own business and i don't know why i bother. But potential buyers should do comparison studies first, and not just jump in just because it fits a budget. because at the end of the day, entry prices dictate the manner in which you exit.

  13. #73
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    Hmm ... for most people, if budget is not one of the more important factor for consideration (for owner-buyer) then wonder wat would it be?

    Your intention may be good but not nec. every buyer is buying with the mentality of invest with 'entry' & 'exit'.

    But u're rite to say that buyers should still shop around & compare the various locations .. this of cuz makes sense & even if with budget oso should practise that. Only thing is if the potential really really likes a place so much or so used to a vicinity, then buyer is not so logical liao lor ... look at the total sales in May, oso doesn't appear to be logical rt ..

    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    No doubt i'm gonna get flamed for minding my own business and i don't know why i bother. But potential buyers should do comparison studies first, and not just jump in just because it fits a budget. because at the end of the day, entry prices dictate the manner in which you exit.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    Your argument is fair and a very good one. Here's my humble flip side of the coin.

    I'm not comparing woodleigh to orchard or marina bay, but to other city fringe properties. D15 OA in 1Q was going for $850psf, it's FH, within walking distance to the upcoming MRT, surrounded by amenities and malls. Other condos pre run-up in D15 were priced at $650-$750. Over at D5, prices in 1Q were sub $600psf. River Valley/Tanglin was about $1k.

    My point is that the recent run up defies not only fundamentals and pricing benchmarks, but human decency as well when developers have this 'it's green shoots, so let's rip 'em and run' mentality.
    In that case, do you think it is a mistake for HDB to launch DBSS HDB flats priced from 500-700k at AMK, TPY, Boon Keng, Simei etc? Strangely, the buyers of all these glorified HDBs do not even care about whether got greens shoots or market is going to crash next year or not. And they are so excited after getting a 600k HDB. So getting a condo at Potong Pasir at 700k does not sound too illogical isn't it?

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    In that case, do you think it is a mistake for HDB to launch DBSS HDB flats priced from 500-700k at AMK, TPY, Boon Keng, Simei etc? Strangely, the buyers of all these glorified HDBs do not even care about whether got greens shoots or market is going to crash next year or not. And they are so excited after getting a 600k HDB. So getting a condo at Potong Pasir at 700k does not sound too illogical isn't it?
    there will always be buyers, comfortably leveraged or ridiculously overstretched, at different price tiers.

    hdb buyers r most likely 1st time home owners, so sometimes emotion may get the better of reason

  16. #76
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    developers in that area sometimes use Boon Keng DBSS as comparison as a benchmark for pricing. They would always say "if DBSS can charge so much for public housing, why not pay slightly more for a condo in the vicinity..."


    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    In that case, do you think it is a mistake for HDB to launch DBSS HDB flats priced from 500-700k at AMK, TPY, Boon Keng, Simei etc? Strangely, the buyers of all these glorified HDBs do not even care about whether got greens shoots or market is going to crash next year or not. And they are so excited after getting a 600k HDB. So getting a condo at Potong Pasir at 700k does not sound too illogical isn't it?

  17. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    Your argument is fair and a very good one. Here's my humble flip side of the coin.

    I'm not comparing woodleigh to orchard or marina bay, but to other city fringe properties. D15 OA in 1Q was going for $850psf, it's FH, within walking distance to the upcoming MRT, surrounded by amenities and malls. Other condos pre run-up in D15 were priced at $650-$750. Over at D5, prices in 1Q were sub $600psf. River Valley/Tanglin was about $1k.

    My point is that the recent run up defies not only fundamentals and pricing benchmarks, but human decency as well when developers have this 'it's green shoots, so let's rip 'em and run' mentality.

    True that every part of Singapore was once a cemetary - even Sentosa Cove sits on top a rumored WW2 killing field, ion orchard sits on an 1800s cemetary etc. But modern cemetaries like Bishan was given a much longer vesting period before pte and landed properties were put up for planning. Biddadari was cleared starting 2001 and completed in 2006.

    My point as always, is pricing. Bishan started in the mid 80s really cheap due to the cemetary issue, and only started its run up in the 90s. but almost 2 decades separated the exhumation and when the first HDB families moved in. Woodleigh has barely seen a few years.

    No doubt i'm gonna get flamed for minding my own business and i don't know why i bother. But potential buyers should do comparison studies first, and not just jump in just because it fits a budget. because at the end of the day, entry prices dictate the manner in which you exit.
    Actually I have always appreciated your insights, and your knowledge of the local property market. I do agree that the recent run-up in pricing is not sustainable, and from a technical standpoint, a correction has to occur, esp since the underlying fault lines which led to this sub-prime/demand destruction/recession crisis still exists. But market can be irrational, since it is dictated by human behaviour. And in this part of the world, there is still a lot of liquidity in the system, largely due to years of high savings and our proximity to Asian countries such as China/Malaysia/Indonesia where old wealth exists and Singapore is regarded as a safe haven. Hence this may cushion the impact of the eventual correction. How far and how deep and how long any correction can happen, it is up to the market to eventually decide. No one ever has the benefit of hindsight.

    My point of view is that should a property be purchased for self-stay, affordability and sustainability are the principal issues. Affordability requires one to have the means, even when one suffers a financial setback (such as retrenchment, paycut, illness), to continue maintaining the property and not let it be put up for a forced sale. And if one purchases a $800K mass-market property, in the event of a 25% correction, the book-loss will be capped at $200k, and there is always a natural HDB price support level for mass-market properties. But if one purchases a $1.5M property in the prime district, the book-loss can be easily $300-400K. It is a very different risk level altogether.

    Sustainability means that the property is suited for one's lifestyle, and one can be happy living in it for at least the medium term. To a yuppie or a childless couple, staying in a studio along Oxley or at the Icon or Sail may be a great option. There are pubs below, great shopping, proximity to the workplace and of course the lure of staying next to a casino where there is entertainment round the clock. But to a family with children, needs become different. Then factors such as adequate living space for the children to romp around, ample storage for toys and plenty of bookshelves, a tranquil environment (hopefully not next to the scintillating lights of Orchard or a casino in my case), proximity to good schools or even a good public library such that the child can cultivate a reading habit all come into play. And should the unit be purchased for self-stay and is affordable and sustainable, then the entry price will not be of the principal concern since the owner is able to hold it through various property cycles.

    The above does not just relate to the Woodleigh Close launch, but across all properties in general. I am a firm believer of being comfortably leveraged. Coming back to D13, Potong Pasir is really not suited to people which wish to flip it for a quick gain, as I mentioned before in other D13 threads. One needs to be able to hold it over the medium to long term to see the area developed. But it is not without its charm and its potential. And of course, for all property investors and buyers out there, I toally agree that it is key to do comparison studies at the end of the day.

  18. #78
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    you have also failed to point out what the future population of singapore is going to be like in 10 years time. I can safely say that our rate of influx of foreigners and population growth is definitely greater than growth in number of housing and please bear in mind that the land size is more or less a fixed constraint while population will continue to expand. There will come a time when Singapore will face a gross housing shortage like london and prices will reach fever pitch. it is not too hard to imagine that happening as singapore has yet to become a full blown cosmopolitan city. Also remember that we are much smaller than the size of london....


    Quote Originally Posted by new2mondrian
    Actually I have always appreciated your insights, and your knowledge of the local property market. I do agree that the recent run-up in pricing is not sustainable, and from a technical standpoint, a correction has to occur, esp since the underlying fault lines which led to this sub-prime/demand destruction/recession crisis still exists. But market can be irrational, since it is dictated by human behaviour. And in this part of the world, there is still a lot of liquidity in the system, largely due to years of high savings and our proximity to Asian countries such as China/Malaysia/Indonesia where old wealth exists and Singapore is regarded as a safe haven. Hence this may cushion the impact of the eventual correction. How far and how deep and how long any correction can happen, it is up to the market to eventually decide. No one ever has the benefit of hindsight.

    My point of view is that should a property be purchased for self-stay, affordability and sustainability are the principal issues. Affordability requires one to have the means, even when one suffers a financial setback (such as retrenchment, paycut, illness), to continue maintaining the property and not let it be put up for a forced sale. And if one purchases a $800K mass-market property, in the event of a 25% correction, the book-loss will be capped at $200k, and there is always a natural HDB price support level for mass-market properties. But if one purchases a $1.5M property in the prime district, the book-loss can be easily $300-400K. It is a very different risk level altogether.

    Sustainability means that the property is suited for one's lifestyle, and one can be happy living in it for at least the medium term. To a yuppie or a childless couple, staying in a studio along Oxley or at the Icon or Sail may be a great option. There are pubs below, great shopping, proximity to the workplace and of course the lure of staying next to a casino where there is entertainment round the clock. But to a family with children, needs become different. Then factors such as adequate living space for the children to romp around, ample storage for toys and plenty of bookshelves, a tranquil environment (hopefully not next to the scintillating lights of Orchard or a casino in my case), proximity to good schools or even a good public library such that the child can cultivate a reading habit all come into play. And should the unit be purchased for self-stay and is affordable and sustainable, then the entry price will not be of the principal concern since the owner is able to hold it through various property cycles.

    The above does not just relate to the Woodleigh Close launch, but across all properties in general. I am a firm believer of being comfortably leveraged. Coming back to D13, Potong Pasir is really not suited to people which wish to flip it for a quick gain, as I mentioned before in other D13 threads. One needs to be able to hold it over the medium to long term to see the area developed. But it is not without its charm and its potential. And of course, for all property investors and buyers out there, I toally agree that it is key to do comparison studies at the end of the day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    If cemetary condos are priced at $1kpsf, then hillvista should be at $5kpsf, Sembawang about $2kpsf, D15 about $7kpsf etc etc

    $1kpsf for cemetary land. sheesh
    Geylang should be priced about $8k psf

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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    you have also failed to point out what the future population of singapore is going to be like in 10 years time. I can safely say that our rate of influx of foreigners and population growth is definitely greater than growth in number of housing and please bear in mind that the land size is more or less a fixed constraint while population will continue to expand. There will come a time when Singapore will face a gross housing shortage like london and prices will reach fever pitch. it is not too hard to imagine that happening as singapore has yet to become a full blown cosmopolitan city. Also remember that we are much smaller than the size of london....
    I remember paying close to SGD200 per day for a really crappy room in a run down service apt just last year

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    just check up on the psf in central london. Their 1k to 2k psf is all in pounds. Most pte pty in london are apt status n no facilities also. Sme dont even have lifts n got to climb up n down 4 storeys if it is a 4 storey apt.
    Quote Originally Posted by Geylang OKT
    I remember paying close to SGD200 per day for a really crappy room in a run down service apt just last year

  22. #82
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    Hi Friends,

    June 20, 2009 (Sat) from 0900 hrs is THE DAY!

    For those who is interested to get more information on the unit size / no. of units for each room type / est. psf
    +
    (i) 8 @ Woodleigh Fact Sheet (ii) COMPLETE floor plan (partial floor plan was released earlier) and (iii) 8 @ Woodleigh Model photo

    Please sms at 9772-7777 or email me at [email protected]

    I look forward to hear from you and serve you.

    Thank you.



    Cheers,
    Ray
    9772-7777

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    May i know the price psf ?

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    I'm probably gonna get flamed for this, but here's a theory that i'm betting on. Now i may be wrong, or right, but my disclaimer is that i'm obviously vested/biased; this is another one of my stupid theories which probably won't come to pass; and heck, it's been a tiring day at CMMA and i'm typing this in a stupor of exhaustion.

    The recent run up, just as with other run ups, is all down to the herd mentality and kiasuism. Just like in our stock market, the property market in Singapore doesn't price in fundamentals - it prices in mass psychology and the unique 'i'm better than you' aspiration Singaporeans hold so dear.

    HDB upgraders and most Singaporeans make their property buying decisions not on fundamentals, but on just one thing - CPF. As long as the absolute price of the loan does not exceed the monthly contri of 2 working spouses - ie $2200 pm - they won't think so much. At current interest rates, $2200 services a loan of $800k for 33-35 years, or a $1m property. stretch this to 40 years, and that becomes $1.2m. Banks give up to 45 years, making it $1.3m. DBSS buyers have it better - HDB's moral security, and easy to obtain loans.

    Local buyers today thus do not seriously factor in location, potential, etc as long as certain key words like 'CCR, RCR, minutes to IR/Orchard/etc, MRT' appear on marketing brochures. Heck they dun really even factor in LH/FH anymore. As long as the quantum meets CPF contri, 'we're practically getting this property for free since we can't draw out our CPF anyways'.

    Others add to this list with other justifications like 'must be close to good schools'. People, proximity is no longer a determinant of entry. OBA and service affiliation rank higher today for the really good ones.

    This CPF crutch even applies to the little more well off crowd that buy the One Devonshires and 'close to Orchard' properties. Heck, and additional $300-500 per spouse per month 'ain't gonna bust the bank.' and 'I'm essentially paying just $600-$1000 pm for Orchard property!! (not counting CPF contri of course)'

    Thus:

    I see a tripolarisation of the the property market in Singapore. One segment catered to the fundamentals, another for the price inelastic, and another for all the rest.

    Fundamentals
    Those that buy on fundamentals look at areas that have definite and quantifiable infrastructural/living/growth investments planned and executed. This market is truly price elastic. If prices outstrip fundamentals, prices will drop - if undervalued, prices will rise. These areas are growth areas hinged on expectations for the future based on existing, confirmed and executed planning investments. Such areas include the Biopolis belt, Marina Bay only. All the other areas - Paya Lebar, Lakeside, Punggol - when I see the money and the start of construction, then i'll call it.

    Thus before you buy that 'close to orchard' property, ask yourself - is there growth potential in orchard road? how likely is it for lucky plaza/ paragon/ NAC to be torn down and rebuilt higher and denser? Is is cheaper to enbloc, tear down and build, or just to build in new growth areas on bare land?

    Price Inelastic
    The rich are not idiots. They buy properties that either will give them much much more returns in the future, or those that protect the sanctity, privacy and prestige of their family. differences in valuation by a million or two will not make much of a dent in purchasing decision more than how well the economy at large will serve them; or even tax laws. You have to really visit a private enclave in Singapore to understand how out of this world old money (and even new money like Jet Lee), and out ministars live. This market segment is intertwined with the fundamentals segment. Case in point - Sentosa. No doubt an exclusive enclave, but as the infrastructural and commercial investments supporting this enclave are in doubt - prices are still underwater. The rich really hate it when there's nothing around to pamper themselves with, and sailing every day is boring. Heck you can't even open the door and swim in the choppy waters or even the lagoon.

    The govt is obviously creating a playground for the rich in Singapore - whether the Gardens, entertainment, resorts, tax laws, private banking, HQs, private marinas etc. Now this really hinges not on the success of the IR, but on how Singapore is successful in:
    1) positioning itself for high net worth, and tax exempt monies.
    2) building a playground for these individuals and thus upping the quality of life

    Point 1) has me worried. US tax law changes and the OECD blacklist might be a game changer, and will work only if Singapore and beneficiaries find a way to skirt around this. Otherwise, it'll affect everything to FDI to expats to just about everything non-local around here. This is a huge issue that scares me. IT will affect the 'Fundamentals' segment, less so the private enclaves.

    Point 2) is happening right now. It's not the IR per se - although it does add an element of excitement and fun to things. Rather, it's the other stuff like the Gardens, private enclaves, mixed high-end commercial/residential, and recreation/entertainment facilities. Again, this benefits the fundamentals segment, up and down. IF this turns out to be another marina bay park of old, i'm f@cked.

    So here's my short-sighted, probably erroneous, and highly flamable prediction for the future. The property market is going to mirror the huge divides in Singapore society in time to come.

    The Hamptons vs Manhattan vs Brooklyn

    I'm also gonna predict the stagnation of Orchard Road as new commercial destinations come up, and as such destinations become decentralised. The govt has spent $55m putting in lighted walks, and glowing trees. Some good that has done.

    I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict the emergence of all new enclaves in the suburbs - and right now, only coney island and sembawang makes sense to me (assuming the shipyard moves out). This prob is a decade down the road.

    Singapore is tiny, and really, everywhere is minutes away to somewhere. Even Sengkang to Suntec is a 15min drive in normal traffic via the KPE.

    Flame me if you must, but citizens like myself who have worked so hard for our CPF balances and our savings MUST always look at fundamentals today, and for the future, and not base million dollar decisions on emotion and the lies of marketeers. Stuff like 'limited land' etc etc is bullshit, esp not when we are constantly building up, not wide. Drive around the island, see how much flat land that we have bare. Look at the govt's reserve list that's still unsold.

    We are not like Jet Li with his quadrillions who can buy a GCB. If we can penny pinch and compare the cost of rice; price shop during GSS; - then why can't we take a step back and compare PSFs?
    Last edited by gfoo; 18-06-09 at 14:32.

  25. #85
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    1,069

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    I'm probably gonna get flamed for this, but here's a theory that i'm betting on. Now i may be wrong, or right, but my disclaimer is that i'm obviously vested/biased; this is another one of my stupid theories which probably won't come to pass; and heck, it's been a tiring day at CMMA and i'm typing this in a stupor of exhaustion.

    The recent run up, just as with other run ups, is all down to the herd mentality and kiasuism. Just like in our stock market, the property market in Singapore doesn't price in fundamentals - it prices in mass psychology and the unique 'i'm better than you' aspiration Singaporeans hold so dear.

    HDB upgraders and most Singaporeans make their property buying decisions not on fundamentals, but on just one thing - CPF. As long as the absolute price of the loan does not exceed the monthly contri of 2 working spouses - ie $2200 pm - they won't think so much. At current interest rates, $2200 services a loan of $800k for 33-35 years, or a $1m property. stretch this to 40 years, and that becomes $1.2m. Banks give up to 45 years, making it $1.3m. DBSS buyers have it better - HDB's moral security, and easy to obtain loans.

    Local buyers today thus do not seriously factor in location, potential, etc as long as certain key words like 'CCR, RCR, minutes to IR/Orchard/etc, MRT' appear on marketing brochures. Heck they dun really even factor in LH/FH anymore. As long as the quantum meets CPF contri, 'we're practically getting this property for free since we can't draw out our CPF anyways'.

    Others add to this list with other justifications like 'must be close to good schools'. People, proximity is no longer a determinant of entry. OBA and service affiliation rank higher today for the really good ones.

    This CPF crutch even applies to the little more well off crowd that buy the One Devonshires and 'close to Orchard' properties. Heck, and additional $300-500 per spouse per month 'ain't gonna bust the bank.' and 'I'm essentially paying just $600-$1000 pm for Orchard property!! (not counting CPF contri of course)'

    Thus:

    I see a tripolarisation of the the property market in Singapore. One segment catered to the fundamentals, another for the price inelastic, and another for all the rest.

    Fundamentals
    Those that buy on fundamentals look at areas that have definite and quantifiable infrastructural/living/growth investments planned and executed. This market is truly price elastic. If prices outstrip fundamentals, prices will drop - if undervalued, prices will rise. These areas are growth areas hinged on expectations for the future based on existing, confirmed and executed planning investments. Such areas include the Biopolis belt, Marina Bay only. All the other areas - Paya Lebar, Lakeside, Punggol - when I see the money and the start of construction, then i'll call it.

    Thus before you buy that 'close to orchard' property, ask yourself - is there growth potential in orchard road? how likely is it for lucky plaza/ paragon/ NAC to be torn down and rebuilt higher and denser? Is is cheaper to enbloc, tear down and build, or just to build in new growth areas on bare land?

    Price Inelastic
    The rich are not idiots. They buy properties that either will give them much much more returns in the future, or those that protect the sanctity, privacy and prestige of their family. differences in valuation by a million or two will not make much of a dent in purchasing decision more than how well the economy at large will serve them; or even tax laws. You have to really visit a private enclave in Singapore to understand how out of this world old money (and even new money like Jet Lee), and out ministars live. This market segment is intertwined with the fundamentals segment. Case in point - Sentosa. No doubt an exclusive enclave, but as the infrastructural and commercial investments supporting this enclave are in doubt - prices are still underwater. The rich really hate it when there's nothing around to pamper themselves with, and sailing every day is boring. Heck you can't even open the door and swim in the choppy waters or even the lagoon.

    The govt is obviously creating a playground for the rich in Singapore - whether the Gardens, entertainment, resorts, tax laws, private banking, HQs, private marinas etc. Now this really hinges not on the success of the IR, but on how Singapore is successful in:
    1) positioning itself for high net worth, and tax exempt monies.
    2) building a playground for these individuals and thus upping the quality of life

    Point 1) has me worried. US tax law changes and the OECD blacklist might be a game changer, and will work only if Singapore and beneficiaries find a way to skirt around this. Otherwise, it'll affect everything to FDI to expats to just about everything non-local around here. This is a huge issue that scares me. IT will affect the 'Fundamentals' segment, less so the private enclaves.

    Point 2) is happening right now. It's not the IR per se - although it does add an element of excitement and fun to things. Rather, it's the other stuff like the Gardens, private enclaves, mixed high-end commercial/residential, and recreation/entertainment facilities. Again, this benefits the fundamentals segment, up and down. IF this turns out to be another marina bay park of old, i'm f@cked.

    So here's my short-sighted, probably erroneous, and highly flamable prediction for the future. The property market is going to mirror the huge divides in Singapore society in time to come.

    The Hamptons vs Manhattan vs Brooklyn

    I'm also gonna predict the stagnation of Orchard Road as new commercial destinations come up, and as such destinations become decentralised. The govt has spent $55m putting in lighted walks, and glowing trees. Some good that has done.

    I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict the emergence of all new enclaves in the suburbs - and right now, only coney island and sembawang makes sense to me (assuming the shipyard moves out). This prob is a decade down the road.

    Singapore is tiny, and really, everywhere is minutes away to somewhere. Even Sengkang to Suntec is a 15min drive in normal traffic via the KPE.

    Flame me if you must, but citizens like myself who have worked so hard for our CPF balances and our savings MUST always look at fundamentals today, and for the future, and not base million dollar decisions on emotion and the lies of marketeers. Stuff like 'limited land' etc etc is bullshit, esp not when we are constantly building up, not wide. Drive around the island, see how much flat land that we have bare. Look at the govt's reserve list that's still unsold.

    We are not like Jet Li with his quadrillions who can buy a GCB. If we can penny pinch and compare the cost of rice; price shop during GSS; - then why can't we take a step back and compare PSFs?
    I must applaud your effort in writing up this piece. However, most of the buyers of this project may not even come to this forum. All I know is that the 1/2 bedrooms will probably be snapped up immediately on the 1st day of launch by the HDB upgraders living around Potong Pasir Each may have their own reason of buying, just like in stock market, some prefer blue chip value investment like you, some go after high yield stocks, some just buy 2nd-line stocks for speculation ...
    Last edited by jitkiat; 18-06-09 at 14:47.

  26. #86
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    130

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    I'm probably gonna get flamed for this, but here's a theory that i'm betting on. Now i may be wrong, or right, but my disclaimer is that i'm obviously vested/biased; this is another one of my stupid theories which probably won't come to pass; and heck, it's been a tiring day at CMMA and i'm typing this in a stupor of exhaustion.

    The recent run up, just as with other run ups, is all down to the herd mentality and kiasuism. Just like in our stock market, the property market in Singapore doesn't price in fundamentals - it prices in mass psychology and the unique 'i'm better than you' aspiration Singaporeans hold so dear.

    HDB upgraders and most Singaporeans make their property buying decisions not on fundamentals, but on just one thing - CPF. As long as the absolute price of the loan does not exceed the monthly contri of 2 working spouses - ie $2200 pm - they won't think so much. At current interest rates, $2200 services a loan of $800k for 33-35 years, or a $1m property. stretch this to 40 years, and that becomes $1.2m. Banks give up to 45 years, making it $1.3m. DBSS buyers have it better - HDB's moral security, and easy to obtain loans.

    Local buyers today thus do not seriously factor in location, potential, etc as long as certain key words like 'CCR, RCR, minutes to IR/Orchard/etc, MRT' appear on marketing brochures. Heck they dun really even factor in LH/FH anymore. As long as the quantum meets CPF contri, 'we're practically getting this property for free since we can't draw out our CPF anyways'.

    Others add to this list with other justifications like 'must be close to good schools'. People, proximity is no longer a determinant of entry. OBA and service affiliation rank higher today for the really good ones.

    This CPF crutch even applies to the little more well off crowd that buy the One Devonshires and 'close to Orchard' properties. Heck, and additional $300-500 per spouse per month 'ain't gonna bust the bank.' and 'I'm essentially paying just $600-$1000 pm for Orchard property!! (not counting CPF contri of course)'

    Thus:

    I see a tripolarisation of the the property market in Singapore. One segment catered to the fundamentals, another for the price inelastic, and another for all the rest.

    Fundamentals
    Those that buy on fundamentals look at areas that have definite and quantifiable infrastructural/living/growth investments planned and executed. This market is truly price elastic. If prices outstrip fundamentals, prices will drop - if undervalued, prices will rise. These areas are growth areas hinged on expectations for the future based on existing, confirmed and executed planning investments. Such areas include the Biopolis belt, Marina Bay only. All the other areas - Paya Lebar, Lakeside, Punggol - when I see the money and the start of construction, then i'll call it.

    Thus before you buy that 'close to orchard' property, ask yourself - is there growth potential in orchard road? how likely is it for lucky plaza/ paragon/ NAC to be torn down and rebuilt higher and denser? Is is cheaper to enbloc, tear down and build, or just to build in new growth areas on bare land?

    Price Inelastic
    The rich are not idiots. They buy properties that either will give them much much more returns in the future, or those that protect the sanctity, privacy and prestige of their family. differences in valuation by a million or two will not make much of a dent in purchasing decision more than how well the economy at large will serve them; or even tax laws. You have to really visit a private enclave in Singapore to understand how out of this world old money (and even new money like Jet Lee), and out ministars live. This market segment is intertwined with the fundamentals segment. Case in point - Sentosa. No doubt an exclusive enclave, but as the infrastructural and commercial investments supporting this enclave are in doubt - prices are still underwater. The rich really hate it when there's nothing around to pamper themselves with, and sailing every day is boring. Heck you can't even open the door and swim in the choppy waters or even the lagoon.

    The govt is obviously creating a playground for the rich in Singapore - whether the Gardens, entertainment, resorts, tax laws, private banking, HQs, private marinas etc. Now this really hinges not on the success of the IR, but on how Singapore is successful in:
    1) positioning itself for high net worth, and tax exempt monies.
    2) building a playground for these individuals and thus upping the quality of life

    Point 1) has me worried. US tax law changes and the OECD blacklist might be a game changer, and will work only if Singapore and beneficiaries find a way to skirt around this. Otherwise, it'll affect everything to FDI to expats to just about everything non-local around here. This is a huge issue that scares me. IT will affect the 'Fundamentals' segment, less so the private enclaves.

    Point 2) is happening right now. It's not the IR per se - although it does add an element of excitement and fun to things. Rather, it's the other stuff like the Gardens, private enclaves, mixed high-end commercial/residential, and recreation/entertainment facilities. Again, this benefits the fundamentals segment, up and down. IF this turns out to be another marina bay park of old, i'm f@cked.

    So here's my short-sighted, probably erroneous, and highly flamable prediction for the future. The property market is going to mirror the huge divides in Singapore society in time to come.

    The Hamptons vs Manhattan vs Brooklyn

    I'm also gonna predict the stagnation of Orchard Road as new commercial destinations come up, and as such destinations become decentralised. The govt has spent $55m putting in lighted walks, and glowing trees. Some good that has done.

    I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict the emergence of all new enclaves in the suburbs - and right now, only coney island and sembawang makes sense to me (assuming the shipyard moves out). This prob is a decade down the road.

    Singapore is tiny, and really, everywhere is minutes away to somewhere. Even Sengkang to Suntec is a 15min drive in normal traffic via the KPE.

    Flame me if you must, but citizens like myself who have worked so hard for our CPF balances and our savings MUST always look at fundamentals today, and for the future, and not base million dollar decisions on emotion and the lies of marketeers. Stuff like 'limited land' etc etc is bullshit, esp not when we are constantly building up, not wide. Drive around the island, see how much flat land that we have bare. Look at the govt's reserve list that's still unsold.

    We are not like Jet Li with his quadrillions who can buy a GCB. If we can penny pinch and compare the cost of rice; price shop during GSS; - then why can't we take a step back and compare PSFs?
    well said !!

  27. #87
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    32

    Default

    Hi,

    Can anyone verify. The ERA agent told me I must bring cheque book and IC in order to enter the showroom. Gee.. How did condo launch reach this stage????

  28. #88
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    5,841

    Default

    very simple, DESPERATION
    Quote Originally Posted by jhokc0007
    Hi,

    Can anyone verify. The ERA agent told me I must bring cheque book and IC in order to enter the showroom. Gee.. How did condo launch reach this stage????

  29. #89
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    32

    Default

    That's true. I should have say " I only bring CASH to showroom"

  30. #90
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    804

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by jhokc0007
    Hi,

    Can anyone verify. The ERA agent told me I must bring cheque book and IC in order to enter the showroom. Gee.. How did condo launch reach this stage????
    Wah biang... I almost fell off my chair when I saw this... when has condo launches been like this???!!! So what if people bring cheque book and IC??!!! Will they buy?

    Very funny indeed. This really sets a precedence.... But nonetheless, my ERA agent never tell me to bring any cheque or IC leh. So this will not stop me from taking a stroll down on Sat morning, with my toddler and my helper from Leicester Road to Woodleigh to take a look without my IC and my cheque. Let's see what they can do. Evidently now DTZ also got into the fray. They are co-launching this with ERA. Maybe that's why the ERA folks are feeling the heat.

    Hi gfoo,

    There are a number of good points which you brought up. Firstly, I agree with you on the land issue. There is no shortage of housing land in SGP, except in the landed category. In fact, HDB caters to the housing needs of 80% of the populace, and in building denser and higher, there is really no lack of land for the masses. The en-bloc process (both by the Govt and by private developers) is also a continual exercise to create more living space for all.

    And the housing market in Singapore is unique due to 2 factors. One is the role of Government in providing housing for the masses through the HDB. It controls the demand and supply of housing, and therefore providing a floor and ceiling price for mass-market housing. Two is through CPF, as you have correctly pointed out. CPF monies becomes "invisible" to the masses since there is a long lock-in period and there is no real cash outlay as long as the property is fully financed by the monthly CPF contibutions. But there are ways in which the CPF monies can be monetized, such as through the purchase of properties and renting it out. The property purchased for self-stay is always a form of consumption. Should one wishes to reduce consumption rate, then the most logical solution is to stay in a HDB.

    And lastly, I totally agree with you on the growth potential of the Biopolis/Holland area. That's why I have acquired a property in that area last week. But for the IR area, the long term potential is still mixed and the risk involved given the investment quantum is not small. But as with all gambles, high risk high returns right?

    But my take is that the Government is trying to rejuvenate the whole of SGP, though it will take a number of years. Areas such as Jurong Lake District, Paya Lebar and Kallang Basin development, and of course the IR consruction will have a positive impact on the market over the long run. Let's hope that SGP economy continues to grow, and there is constant rejuvenation and revitalisation of SGP as a whole for its citizens to see an eventual rise in their real estate in the years to come.

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