Pavilion 11 Owners

[dmonddd]

the link to balestier is because of the access road.

[andy]

the link to balestier is because of the access road.

Is this what makes the $psf go from 880 to 13xx?

[mogyi]

Is this what makes the $psf go from 880 to 13xx?

NO! but it's certainly the reason to prevent it from hitting 1500!
anyway... why bother when the garment has decided to bring down the property price...so if i dun have any property yet...just wait lah..
u know... before election every thing cheap cheap good good..
so u know when to enter the market now?

[dmonddd]

Is this what makes the $psf go from 880 to 13xx?

it should not, logically.
if it does, the condos in newton or orchard shld jump to higher levels.

[andy]

it should not, logically.
if it does, the condos in newton or orchard shld jump to higher levels.

So caveats are wrong again or buyers paying too much?

So why would someone pay $13xx for this area when they can get one near Orchard for the same?

[dmonddd]

So caveats are wrong again or buyers paying too much?

So why would someone pay $13xx for this area when they can get one near Orchard for the same?

your guess is as good as mine.
whether the buyers are rationale or herd mentality kicks in or stronger rupiah agst USD or too much savings with not many options/alternatives.

if financing is required with minimal downpayment, it will be a challenge to find valuer who can provide such higher value.
valuers as we know works on historical data.

like stocks, last to hold the ball when music stops.

fund managers who hold blocks of units need to ensure prices hold or at higher. otherwise......

buyers in the project -risk adverse/risk seeker.

for condos, ambience, security, profile of occupants/tenants, good maintenance matter alot.

Quality finishes - Why spent $$$ to re-do/renovate while common area is the same.

[Newbie Homebuyer]

I thought this thread is talking about Pavilion 11? P11 is a different class than Montebleu as the latter is on lower ground and view is not as good.
Also, the centralised rubbish collection is so HDBish for a mid class condo. That's why P11 is already selling at 1300psf whereas Montebleu still hovering around 1000psf. Walking to MRT is a chore as there are slopes all over but good for exercise.

Sorry, what do you mean by "centralised rubbish collection"?

[questa]

It means you have to bring out your trash to the lift lobby to dump it. There isnt any disposal chute in the units.

[Newbie Homebuyer]

It means you have to bring out your trash to the lift lobby to dump it. There isnt any disposal chute in the units.

I see. Thanks.

I went by to that area last night. First time I went at night. There is a certain quietness in that area at night that will please people who like peace. Only sound i thought was a bit irritating was the sound of the tennis ball coming from Ansley. But on the whole, its nice.

P11 doesn't look like it has many occupants even though it has TOPed for a while. You can tell easily cos the walls are all glass windows and there are only like 3 or 4 lighted units. Not sure why no one is staying ... all busy selling?

In front of P11 are a few low-lying bungalows. Not sure if they are privately owned as the part is quite dark. Quite a big area though ... dunno if a condo will sprout out here.

On the right are the pavilion wards which are the low-lying blue roof buildings. They are renovating the wards which I guess means no new building there within the next 3 years (otherwise Government waste money).

Oppo the wards (near TTSH) are some ruins of buildings in a plot of grass. Is this a historical relic? Not sure if this is state land or private land...

Btw, a new development is coming up just outside P11's entrance. Some piling sounds to come from there and also from Nova 88 and 48 behind. Speaking of which, Nova 88 and 48 have the slimmest piece of plots I have seen for condos! They will however be another "cleaning up" process for the balestier side. You can see more and more old buildings been torn down or earmarked to be torn down ... and maybe more condos will come up.

After that, I went home .. tired liao.

[andy]

I see. Thanks.

I went by to that area last night. First time I went at night. There is a certain quietness in that area at night that will please people who like peace. Only sound i thought was a bit irritating was the sound of the tennis ball coming from Ansley. But on the whole, its nice.

P11 doesn't look like it has many occupants even though it has TOPed for a while. You can tell easily cos the walls are all glass windows and there are only like 3 or 4 lighted units. Not sure why no one is staying ... all busy selling?

In front of P11 are a few low-lying bungalows. Not sure if they are privately owned as the part is quite dark. Quite a big area though ... dunno if a condo will sprout out here.

On the right are the pavilion wards which are the low-lying blue roof buildings. They are renovating the wards which I guess means no new building there within the next 3 years (otherwise Government waste money).

Oppo the wards (near TTSH) are some ruins of buildings in a plot of grass. Is this a historical relic? Not sure if this is state land or private land...

Btw, a new development is coming up just outside P11's entrance. Some piling sounds to come from there and also from Nova 88 and 48 behind. Speaking of which, Nova 88 and 48 have the slimmest piece of plots I have seen for condos! They will however be another "cleaning up" process for the balestier side. You can see more and more old buildings been torn down or earmarked to be torn down ... and maybe more condos will come up.

After that, I went home .. tired liao.

Thanks. Was the purpose of the scotting mission to check if it was worth buying? Recommendations?

[Newbie Homebuyer]

Thanks. Was the purpose of the scotting mission to check if it was worth buying? Recommendations?

Errr... didn't go in any development so cannot recommend. But yes, I would like to buy somewhere in this area and just wanted to see the area at night.

If budget/ size no issue, i think my ranking is:

1. P11 or M21 (which is the one oppo Ansley, still under construction) - these are the kings of that area

2. Ansley - only reason it is not ranked 1 is cos it is older and I hear some odd shaped units

3. Montebleu - the mass market (ie. very big) condo in that area - probably most budget friendly

Can't comment on Nova 88 and 48 and the new one beside P11 now as I haven't even seen one brick of it. But unlikely to break into the rankings above.

[chweegrace]

oh ya forgot to put down the other reasons i like this place,
1) near town (just 2 train to orchard) or within 5 to 10 min drive, very convinient for me to go shopping
2)i like private lift condo since young
3) if u live high in enough can still see singapore flyer. i like sit in the balcony at night drink coffee and lookin at nice night views
4) the layout of the floor plan are quite squarish.
5)there is no afternoon sun and quite windy


yes it is near balastier not doubt about it, this area needs to
be clean up and i can feel that it is slowing cleaning up , with lot of old building going off aand building new condo and apartment... so maybe 5 or 10 years later i dunno how long , it may have more upside capital appreaciation if it become cleaner.

and of cos there may be other cheap buy at other areas near orchard, but it is either low floor or odd layout or with afternoon sun or being block by all around.
anyway buying properties can be for short or long term just make sure u r comfortable with the most important factor that affect your purchase before you buy. then u wont regret.

[Bionic Leek]

Haha, no I do realise I'm close to balestier. In fact far far closer than I am to Novena. Yes I'm not spatially retarded. However, calling Pavilion 11 and Montebleu "Novena" is a privilege you enjoy for two simple reasons: 1) District 11 status 2) Access road alternatives. Anything across balestier road basically you have zero access road options. As I stated quite clearly, the ansley/pav11/montebleu condos can all be accessed from Novena side, be it shan road from irrawaddy, moulmein road, jalan tan tock seng etc

As to why its worth 1300psf... well, historically it was worth up to 1400psf+... I'm sure some of you know that the entire M21 development was purchased by a single wealthy individual at around 1400psf. So early this year, it looked like he was bleeding money, now its just a controlled cut. Who knows, by TOP time he might be close to break even?

It is worth more on this side due to many of the reasons that I've stated. And yes, of course half the reasons belong to Balestier too, I'm not denying it. Its the other half in addition that makes all the difference.

Because really, when you look at it, the same distance from Pav11 is balestier jalan rajah udang kind of place, and the same distance again from there is well, toa payoh, and a whole new valuation. Singapore is small, so small differences result in huge value shifts.

Oh, and for the brilliant person that said $1300psf can live in orchard, sorry, i don't think that bus stop is for sale anymore. How on earth is orchard 1300psf??

I'd love to see the view from DKSH's pavilion 11 unit. I'm sure it must be quite a sight. Pav is definitely a buy for the views. The quality is just rather shabby though.

Oh and one more thing about the price of Pav 11 vs Montebleu, in case you didn't know, pre-top prices are almost always cheaper than TOP prices, since you get an uncertainty discount. After you can touch, see and feel the actual unit, the price would usually shoot up a significant amount. 10-20% premiums are quite common for pre vs post TOP projects.

[Bionic Leek]

Errr... didn't go in any development so cannot recommend. But yes, I would like to buy somewhere in this area and just wanted to see the area at night.

If budget/ size no issue, i think my ranking is:

1. P11 or M21 (which is the one oppo Ansley, still under construction) - these are the kings of that area

2. Ansley - only reason it is not ranked 1 is cos it is older and I hear some odd shaped units

3. Montebleu - the mass market (ie. very big) condo in that area - probably most budget friendly
above.

Hi Newbie,
Sorry to all if I veer slightly off topic here. Historically, Ansley is the king of this area. The only full facility condo.

Further on, P11 and Montebleu were both developed almost simultaneously.
If you actually read the forums going back into the past, Montebleu was easily considered the more premium of the two, not the mass market one. P11 launched low 800+psf, montebleu launched 1000psf average.

P11 has homogenous tiles on all flooring surfaces vs natural marble for montebleu. Toilets in P11 are also ceramic tiles while montebleu has natural marble in the master. Montebleu also comes with full appliances vs p11 having only a washer and no built in wardrobes in all rooms except the masterbedroom.

I do think that P11 has the better external facade and offset, so better views and more space all around. But whether that applies to you depends on which floor and stack you got.

M21 was launched as a luxury apartment kind of development, so high end designer finishings to draw the necessary crowd.

Ultimately, its your decision, but it looks like you're doing the slow shopping route (87posts) and you want to look at the finished product before you commit. Think you should review your choices carefully so you're satisfied in the end having waited this long =)

[andy]

Haha, no I do realise I'm close to balestier. In fact far far closer than I am to Novena. Yes I'm not spatially retarded. However, calling Pavilion 11 and Montebleu "Novena" is a privilege you enjoy for two simple reasons: 1) District 11 status 2) Access road alternatives. Anything across balestier road basically you have zero access road options. As I stated quite clearly, the ansley/pav11/montebleu condos can all be accessed from Novena side, be it shan road from irrawaddy, moulmein road, jalan tan tock seng etc

As to why its worth 1300psf... well, historically it was worth up to 1400psf+... I'm sure some of you know that the entire M21 development was purchased by a single wealthy individual at around 1400psf. So early this year, it looked like he was bleeding money, now its just a controlled cut. Who knows, by TOP time he might be close to break even?

It is worth more on this side due to many of the reasons that I've stated. And yes, of course half the reasons belong to Balestier too, I'm not denying it. Its the other half in addition that makes all the difference.

Because really, when you look at it, the same distance from Pav11 is balestier jalan rajah udang kind of place, and the same distance again from there is well, toa payoh, and a whole new valuation. Singapore is small, so small differences result in huge value shifts.

Oh, and for the brilliant person that said $1300psf can live in orchard, sorry, i don't think that bus stop is for sale anymore. How on earth is orchard 1300psf??

I'd love to see the view from DKSH's pavilion 11 unit. I'm sure it must be quite a sight. Pav is definitely a buy for the views. The quality is just rather shabby though.

Oh and one more thing about the price of Pav 11 vs Montebleu, in case you didn't know, pre-top prices are almost always cheaper than TOP prices, since you get an uncertainty discount. After you can touch, see and feel the actual unit, the price would usually shoot up a significant amount. 10-20% premiums are quite common for pre vs post TOP projects.

Thanks for your perspective and also the notion that TOP is more valuable than pre-TOP. I also thought that buyers at P11, particularly also pay for the views more so than proximity to Balestier since the 13xx transacted unit is very near the top floor.

Yes I checked up the master plan 2008 and note that the Novena & Balestier area is targetted for substantial re-development. Hope you will enjoy your stay @ P11 and do keep us posted when you move in.

BTW, I mentioned you can get a unit NEAR orchard at $1300. Pls check the latest caveats for Pinetree Condo @ Balmoral park going for $1105psf which is about 10 minutes walk to Orchard

[echotrain]

Thanks for your perspective and also the notion that TOP is more valuable than pre-TOP. I also thought that buyers at P11, particularly also pay for the views more so than proximity to Balestier since the 13xx transacted unit is very near the top floor.

Yes I checked up the master plan 2008 and note that the Novena & Balestier area is targetted for substantial re-development. Hope you will enjoy your stay @ P11 and do keep us posted when you move in.

BTW, I mentioned you can get a unit NEAR orchard at $1300. Pls check the latest caveats for Pinetree Condo @ Balmoral park going for $1105psf which is about 10 minutes walk to Orchard

Yup tehre are actually some good developments at the balmoral area going for around 1300+ PSF, which suddenly appear reasonably priced. Just have to bargain.

[andy]

Yup tehre are actually some good developments at the balmoral area going for around 1300+ PSF, which suddenly appear reasonably priced. Just have to bargain.

But no point. S'porean die die must have new unit. I think resale units will be worthless in future

[mogyi]

But no point. S'porean die die must have new unit. I think resale units will be worthless in future

actually..more like new estate than just new units. Look at FEO new units at old estate like rafflesia etc.. still no one willing to take a look.
But indeed.. s'poreans would happily pay extra 10-15% for new development to their older neighbour

[dmonddd]

Haha, no I do realise I'm close to balestier. In fact far far closer than I am to Novena. Yes I'm not spatially retarded. However, calling Pavilion 11 and Montebleu "Novena" is a privilege you enjoy for two simple reasons: 1) District 11 status 2) Access road alternatives. Anything across balestier road basically you have zero access road options. As I stated quite clearly, the ansley/pav11/montebleu condos can all be accessed from Novena side, be it shan road from irrawaddy, moulmein road, jalan tan tock seng etc

As to why its worth 1300psf... well, historically it was worth up to 1400psf+... I'm sure some of you know that the entire M21 development was purchased by a single wealthy individual at around 1400psf. So early this year, it looked like he was bleeding money, now its just a controlled cut. Who knows, by TOP time he might be close to break even?

It is worth more on this side due to many of the reasons that I've stated. And yes, of course half the reasons belong to Balestier too, I'm not denying it. Its the other half in addition that makes all the difference.

Because really, when you look at it, the same distance from Pav11 is balestier jalan rajah udang kind of place, and the same distance again from there is well, toa payoh, and a whole new valuation. Singapore is small, so small differences result in huge value shifts.

Oh, and for the brilliant person that said $1300psf can live in orchard, sorry, i don't think that bus stop is for sale anymore. How on earth is orchard 1300psf??

I'd love to see the view from DKSH's pavilion 11 unit. I'm sure it must be quite a sight. Pav is definitely a buy for the views. The quality is just rather shabby though.

Oh and one more thing about the price of Pav 11 vs Montebleu, in case you didn't know, pre-top prices are almost always cheaper than TOP prices, since you get an uncertainty discount. After you can touch, see and feel the actual unit, the price would usually shoot up a significant amount. 10-20% premiums are quite common for pre vs post TOP projects.

a true hybrid of private and public housing environment.
private as to interior
public as to surroundings, balestier road, hotel 61, Bak kut teh, hardware shops, tau sar peah, etc....

best of both worlds. developers reap the margins although project sitting at brink of D11. I can read and say that most prefer heart of D11 (near Newton MRT) but would not pay for the higher psf.

so long in D11 happy -lah.
so long cheaper than D11 heart condos, can buy lah.

for e.g. what's the walking distance from Park Infinia condo to novena MRT station entrance? next to big drain- no problem







compare

[Newbie Homebuyer]

Yes I checked up the master plan 2008 and note that the Novena & Balestier area is targetted for substantial re-development. Hope you will enjoy your stay @ P11 and do keep us posted when you move in.

Hi andy, could you share what these substantial redevelopments are? This is important to me of course ... i only see maps in the master plan. Where can i find what's in store?

[andy]

Hi andy, could you share what these substantial redevelopments are? This is important to me of course ... i only see maps in the master plan. Where can i find what's in store?

Just look at the legend in the master plan you will see what's being planned

[hoching]

Since everyone likes new and if time is on your side, then don't buy pre- TOP or TOP units. Buy them a few years after TOP in resale where the novelty is gone. Also I want to comment it is not so simple that the higher launch price imply that a development is more prestigious than another. Does Centro at 1150psf makes it more premium than Montebleu? I doubt so. In this case, I believe P11 3-room has bigger floor area and with a larger price quantum developer preview price is at 8xx psf. During launch with good response, the units are all at 9xxpsf.

[jlrx]

Since everyone likes new and if time is on your side, then don't buy pre- TOP or TOP units. Buy them a few years after TOP in resale where the novelty is gone. Also I want to comment it is not so simple that the higher launch price imply that a development is more prestigious than another. Does Centro at 1150psf makes it more premium than Montebleu? I doubt so. In this case, I believe P11 3-room has bigger floor area and with a larger price quantum developer preview price is at 8xx psf. During launch with good response, the units are all at 9xxpsf.

A few years after TOP the condo wouldn't smell as nice. It's just like ... people pay more for a new car because it's new leather seats and wood panels smell nice.

The price of a project depends not only on its inherent value, but the pricing power of the developer.

In the case of Centro, the developer is a family business so they can hold the units for eternity, maybe pass on to their children and grandchildren and great grandchildren, and in future maybe en bloc again and again, and make more money for their own family business, rather than let the buyers make money from the en-blocs.

On the other hand, developers run by salaried executives don't have such holding power. If a listed company doesn't make money for 4 generations, the CEO would starve to death,. Even his children would have no money to go to school, and grandchildren no money to buy milk powder.

[focus]

I dream of the day when I can be like Peter Lim.. having a whole condo by myself.. and his is in ORCHARD somemore! Gosh..

I not so ambition.. a whole condo like BluWaters 1 in Pasir Ris is good enough.

[tamp81]

I guess it is not always true that value of a condo will drop after top. Depends on which part of the property cycle we are in and whether there is any further development in the location as well.

[Bionic Leek]

There is a fallacy in the arguments being put up above regarding condo age. I'm going to explain things in a fairly broad scenario - meaning we assume that the macro economic situation stays on low to moderate growth throughout the years.

First of all, the value of a property GAINS when it TOPs for a few reasons.
1) Like I said, people pay a premium for the ability to physically see what they are getting. Like in Pav 11, the owners of high floor units command the ability to get 13XXpsf simply BECAUSE people can walk in and see the amazing views.
2) Investors that Need to dump typically do so just before TOP so that they avoid the final payments that are called for
3) Those that DO pay or settle the banks tend to require a premium or are prepared to settle in for the long wait for a willing buyer/tenant

Second, valuation of a property does NOT fall over time. So its not true that you wait 5 years and you can buy Pav11/Monte for less. What actually happens is that each New condo in the area is priced premium to the older units. I mean, if you're the developer of course you'll sell your brand spanking new condo at a premium to other developments in the area. This then creates "value" for your older resale unit as you're cheaper than the surrounding new projects. Typically year on year private property prices trend upwards at least at inflation rate levels (more true in prime/subprime areas over a long timeline view e.g. 10 years) and developers will just plonk down a new development in the vicinity and price in all the upside + a premium for newness.

This is how neighborhoods gain value over time. Worst case a unit gets so old nobody buys it, someday it will be sold enbloc, torn down, and the new development again will be premium to the surroundings.

[andy]

Second, valuation of a property does NOT fall over time. So its not true that you wait 5 years and you can buy Pav11/Monte for less.

Don't be naive. If you buy a new property about to TOP or a sub-sale property at the peak of the property cycle, you are paying a premium.

If the market crashed in 5 years, the brand new properties cannot even sell at the price you have bought at the peak. Hence your 5 year old property will therefore sell at 30% lower than what you have paid for

[gemstone]

Don't be naive. If you buy a new property about to TOP or a sub-sale property at the peak of the property cycle, you are paying a premium.

If the market crashed in 5 years, the brand new properties cannot even sell at the price you have bought at the peak. Hence your 5 year old property will therefore sell at 30% lower than what you have paid for

exactly! couldn't agree more with Andy

[teddybear]

But if you bought a CCR FH property and close eyes for 20 years (as has been the case for any past 20 years period), still make decent profit.

Don't be naive. If you buy a new property about to TOP or a sub-sale property at the peak of the property cycle, you are paying a premium.

If the market crashed in 5 years, the brand new properties cannot even sell at the price you have bought at the peak. Hence your 5 year old property will therefore sell at 30% lower than what you have paid for

[echotrain]

But if you bought a CCR FH property and close eyes for 20 years (as has been the case for any past 20 years period), still make decent profit.

That is why the <5 yrs old FH condos in D10 (Esp around balmoral where recent launches are hitting 2000psf) that are going for 1300-1400psf are great bargains now. There are lots of upside in the medium to long term.

Gave you guys hint already.