Hundred Trees (Former Hong Leong Garden @West Coast Drive)

[xebay11]

one of the key reason for high mass market condo prices is high HDB prices. Malboro Tan did not address the problem of high HDB prices, instead he focus on the speculation in condos.

Truth is, high HDB prices will remain and this will be the main target market for developers. The measures introduced will have minimal impact if any

The impact will be great as many who bought recently were speculators.

[Property_Owner]

Malboro Tan did not address the problem of high HDB prices, instead he focus on the speculation in condos.

He did, without giving much infor!!!!!!!!

[karu]

$700 psf can cover costs? Then what about the Carabelle, Botannia and Infiniti all drop prices liao.

Wah $700 psf surely spoil mkt not only for nearby development but other launches in S'pore... condo price will dive!!!

Think will be lowered to low $900s if they really are very desperate, otherwise price shouldn't defer that much. They'll wait & see then hope that the measures will have minimal impact. Both buyers & developers will not make any drastic move for now.

[W0520]

Wah $700 psf surely spoil mkt not only for nearby development but other launches in S'pore... condo price will dive!!!

Think will be lowered to low $900s if they really are very desperate, otherwise price shouldn't defer that much. They'll wait & see then hope that the measures will have minimal impact. Both buyers & developers will not make any drastic move for now.

If the launched price will be around S$900 PSF, then we should buy 'ready-to-occpied' condo and immediate get the return.

It doesn't make sense to keep on paying with no return in the next couple of years for the newly launched condo if the price is the almost the same as the completed one.

[karu]

If the launched price will be around S$900 PSF, then we should buy 'ready-to-occpied' condo and immediate get the return.

It doesn't make sense to keep on paying with no return in the next couple of years for the newly launched condo if the price is the almost the same as the completed one.

Yes agree... Bontania, Carabelle & Infiniti are selling at $800+ psf right?? Go buy those better...

[xtink]

this is a sweeping assumption...

The impact will be great as many who bought recently were speculators.

[Allthepies]

Yes agree... Bontania, Carabelle & Infiniti are selling at $800+ psf right?? Go buy those better...

Yup if launched at 900psf, then no reason to buy from the developer. the developer can be greedy to launch at 900psf, but they will have to bear the risk of poor take up

if i were the developer, i will launch at 700-800psf and try to sell as many units as possible. why hold on to uncertainty?

[Lucas]

Yup if launched at 900psf, then no reason to buy from the developer. the developer can be greedy to launch at 900psf, but they will have to bear the risk of poor take up

if i were the developer, i will launch at 700-800psf and try to sell as many units as possible. why hold on to uncertainty?

Haha, if you are really the developer, will you really launch at that price? These people are the likes of Mr Kwek and that is why they are damn rich

[Allthepies]

Haha, if you are really the developer, will you really launch at that price? These people are the likes of Mr Kwek and that is why they are damn rich

oh quite true ah... heard Interlace launched above 1k psf... so i guess the developers are intent to squeeze dry all the desperate buyers =)

[hans]

Hey guys, everybody seems to forget that in 2007, when DPS was removed, the market still went up farther.

Let's see if there'll still be any blank checques & Qs with today's announcement by MBT...

[forest tree]

With immediate effect, IAS will not be offered for new property sales. It will be interesting to see the launch price. I feel anything above 800 psf will not be attractive anymore. Imagine buy now, start paying and TOP is in 2014. I would rather buy apartment nearby and start to collect rental for 4 yrs which can fetch at least 100k++ in 4 yrs time.

In case anyone don't understand my poor english, please spare the cane.

[Teana]

My friends just came back form the developer private preview tonight.

They are selling those with west sun and facing highway units.

The crowd are about 200+ they need to ballot to get a unit.

Pricing for 2 bedrm are selling above $1K.

The Interlace has just started burning tonight.

Not sure if the Hundred Trees can catch the fire.

[echotrain]

Hey guys, everybody seems to forget that in 2007, when DPS was removed, the market still went up farther.

This may be true. The real buyers all come out in flocks cos they think the speculators hv stepped aside. Just look at how many new posters are present in this forum over the last couple of days.

[darrenp]

This may be true. The real buyers all come out in flocks cos they think the speculators hv stepped aside. Just look at how many new posters are present in this forum over the last couple of days.

an agent sms me saying its selling at 900+psf

[cher]

With immediate effect, IAS will not be offered for new property sales. It will be interesting to see the launch price. I feel anything above 800 psf will not be attractive anymore. Imagine buy now, start paying and TOP is in 2014. I would rather buy apartment nearby and start to collect rental for 4 yrs which can fetch at least 100k++ in 4 yrs time.

In case anyone don't understand my poor english, please spare the cane.

Even under progressive payment doesn't mean you pay 100% on Day 1, by the time foundation work is done is at least 1 year later so during this time you can still flip.

[xebay11]

Even under progressive payment doesn't mean you pay 100% on Day 1, by the time foundation work is done is at least 1 year later so during this time you can still flip.

If prices head South it is not whether you can flip, but rather who would buy from you unless you make a loss.

[cher]

If prices head South it is not whether you can flip, but rather who would buy from you unless you make a loss.

If price really head South that it doesn't matter whether you buy under DPS, IAS or progressive payment, you will still lose right? So what is your point???

[xebay11]

If price really head South that it doesn't matter whether you buy under DPS, IAS or progressive payment, you will still lose right? So what is your point???

Prices would heads South because of the strong message from the Govt, and the suddeness of the implementation of the policy. Now sit back and watch how it unfolds in reality.

[jonleelk]

Once Interlace and Hundred Trees public launch, all will be clearer. Next week results will be out.

[jlrx]

Prices would heads South because of the strong message from the Govt, and the suddeness of the implementation of the policy. Now sit back and watch how it unfolds in reality.

As far as I can remember, prices never headed in the direction of the Govt's "strong message".

It was always some major event beyond the Government's control.

1973 - Oil Crisis.
1985 - Singapore's first recession since independence.
1997 - Asian Financial Crisis.
2001 - Dot-Com Burst.
2008 - Lehman Brothers.

In 1995-96, the market was shooting up like crazy until the Government had to bring in the big gun - the capital gains tax - but in the end, it was the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis that brought the property market to its knees.

To curb speculation in the property market in 1996, the government had imposed income tax on gains which individuals made from selling properties within three years of purchase. It lifted the rule in 2001.

Source : Business Times – 10 Jul 2009

Then in 2001, the Government, seeing that the market was in such a pitiful state having suffered one misfortune (Asian Financial Crisis) to another (Dot-Com Burst), lifted the capital gains tax but the market remained dead and it was not until 2006 that the market started stirring to life.

Then the Govt started releasing more land, increased development charges, but all to no avail as the market kept shooting up ... until our good brother Lehman killed it.

[xebay11]

If speculators are hit, the frenzy at showrooms would die down and so would the hyped up news, everybody would act rationally, so very hard for prices to go up, anyway I hope you are right, as property owner I would welcome price increases

[Lucas]

If speculators are hit, the frenzy at showrooms would die down and so would the hyped up news, everybody would act rationally, so very hard for prices to go up, anyway I hope you are right, as property owner I would welcome price increases

Anyone know if the showrooms for hundred trees will be open this weekends?

[Lucas]

If speculators are hit, the frenzy at showrooms would die down and so would the hyped up news, everybody would act rationally, so very hard for prices to go up, anyway I hope you are right, as property owner I would welcome price increases

Anyone know if the showrooms for hundred trees will be open this weekends?

[Property_Owner]

As far as I can remember, prices never headed in the direction of the Govt's "strong message".

It was always some major event beyond the Government's control.

1973 - Oil Crisis.
1985 - Singapore's first recession since independence.
1997 - Asian Financial Crisis.
2001 - Dot-Com Burst.
2008 - Lehman Brothers.

In 1995-96, the market was shooting up like crazy until the Government had to bring in the big gun - the capital gains tax - but in the end, it was the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis that brought the property market to its knees.


Then in 2001, the Government, seeing that the market was in such a pitiful state having suffered one misfortune (Asian Financial Crisis) to another (Dot-Com Burst), lifted the capital gains tax but the market remained dead and it was not until 2006 that the market started stirring to life.

Then the Govt started releasing more land, increased development charges, but all to no avail as the market kept shooting up ... until our good brother Lehman killed it.

Oh Man, you are damn right!!!!!

[amk]

As far as I can remember, prices never headed in the direction of the Govt's "strong message".

hi jlrx, I like ur post. very objective and non emotional, unlike some others.

Your observation of the history suggests one thing: as much as the government tries to interfere an open economy, its effect is at best only sentimental. And it's almost always the external factors that have major effect. But personally I find it politically correct to introduce some measures now, if for nothing but to make the public "happy". In reality, IAS is not used by flippers. (btw xebay, this is cher's point.) Removal of IAS does not stop flippers. It only stops those who have limited funds and try to buy beyond their means. Removing of IAS makes these people think harder before buying a 1M property based on their current income. This is a socially responsible policy. Although I find it akin to, once again, PAP "babysitting" the people. Well in Singapore this is part of the game. In a real "open" market like Hongkong, ppl can buy property with 95% loan, and with "future rental income" counted when assessing the loan. Government in HK is not interfering how banks giving out loans.

[pweesng]

hi jlrx, I like ur post. very objective and non emotional, unlike some others.

Your observation of the history suggests one thing: as much as the government tries to interfere an open economy, its effect is at best only sentimental. And it's almost always the external factors that have major effect. But personally I find it politically correct to introduce some measures now, if for nothing but to make the public "happy". In reality, IAS is not used by flippers. (btw xebay, this is cher's point.) Removal of IAS does not stop flippers. It only stops those who have limited funds and try to buy beyond their means. Removing of IAS makes these people think harder before buying a 1M property based on their current income. This is a socially responsible policy. Although I find it akin to, once again, PAP "babysitting" the people. Well in Singapore this is part of the game. In a real "open" market like Hongkong, ppl can buy property with 95% loan, and with "future rental income" counted when assessing the loan. Government in HK is not interfering how banks giving out loans.

Well i agreed with you to a certain extend... but Hong Kong may not be a better place for RE ownership. I have seen prices dropping so fast and most of the bank just had to sit on a bagful of potential defaults and nothing they could do. I for one, would not rather see that happening to Singapore.

my 2 cents worth...

[xebay11]

In reality, IAS is not used by flippers. (btw xebay, this is cher's point.) Removal of IAS does not stop flippers. It only stops those who have limited funds and try to buy beyond their means.

Which is my point, the flippers would decrease not because of removal of the IAS, (as you and cher point out IAS is not used by flippers) but the number of flippers would decrease because there would be a lack of buyers who have limited funds and try to buy beyond their means.

In a nutshell, if end buyers are cautious and not bite from flippers, flippers would cease to exist. So removing the IAS is like a chain effect, the results may not be direct.

[Number_9z]

As far as I can remember, prices never headed in the direction of the Govt's "strong message".

It was always some major event beyond the Government's control.

1973 - Oil Crisis.
1985 - Singapore's first recession since independence.
1997 - Asian Financial Crisis.
2001 - Dot-Com Burst.
2008 - Lehman Brothers.

In 1995-96, the market was shooting up like crazy until the Government had to bring in the big gun - the capital gains tax - but in the end, it was the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis that brought the property market to its knees.


Then in 2001, the Government, seeing that the market was in such a pitiful state having suffered one misfortune (Asian Financial Crisis) to another (Dot-Com Burst), lifted the capital gains tax but the market remained dead and it was not until 2006 that the market started stirring to life.

Then the Govt started releasing more land, increased development charges, but all to no avail as the market kept shooting up ... until our good brother Lehman killed it.

Well said...and will govt really implement more stringgent rulings to curb speculation/depress prices? I seriously doubt so..Singapore needs the rich china/middle east investors to invest and buy property here..Imagine how it will affect the economy if everyone starts moving their riches to Australia/china etc if it becomes too cumbersome (and no upside) to invest here.. some form of regulations are good to moderate the sharp increase in property prices but I don't think it will drive prices down significantly, probably just deter some small % of flippers. my 2 cents..cheers

[Number_9z]

Which is my point, the flippers would decrease not because of removal of the IAS, (as you and cher point out IAS is not used by flippers) but the number of flippers would decrease because there would be a lack of buyers who have limited funds and try to buy beyond their means.

In a nutshell, if end buyers are cautious and not bite from flippers, flippers would cease to exist. So removing the IAS is like a chain effect, the results may not be direct.

I have different opinions..
- high end apartments/condo - who are the end buyers to buy from flippers? my guess is the rich foreigners
- mid to low end -- the trend is to launch smaller units with lower quantum $. Reasons because people are more cautious and not willing to fork out bigger quantum, evident from the slower sales for bigger units? So I think the amount of people who have limited funds are small in % and have done their maths..If prices fall (if ever), my guess is they will just hold...

Still, I think it is good to have some form of measures to curb crazy prices but it will only impact to a limited extent..btw, I have also committed to a pty which I think is also on the high side..

[mr funny]

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...31140,00.html?

Published September 16, 2009

Developers' chips are down, but launches go ahead

Property counters hit, but several projects primed for launching

By KALPANA RASHIWALA AND UMA SHANKARI


(SINGAPORE) Some developers are proceeding with plans to launch their projects despite measures announced by the government on Monday to cool an overheating private housing market.

CapitaLand Residential yesterday began previewing at its office the Interlace condo to former owners of Gillman Heights from whom it bought the site for the 99-year leasehold project. Prices of units range from $850 to $1,150 per square foot, a CapitaLand spokeswoman told BT.

Likewise, GuocoLand is proceeding to preview its freehold Elliot at the East Coast project this weekend at an average price of about $950 psf. Prices of a typical three-bedroom apartment in the development will start from about $1.2 million. The low-rise condo, with a total 119 units, comprises eight blocks which will be five storeys high and a three-storey block.

City Developments is also understood to be rushing to get its showflat ready for a possible preview next weekend of its Hundred Trees condo on the former Hong Leong Gardens site in the West Coast area.

The government's cooling measures include scrapping the interest absorption scheme (IAS) and restarting confirmed list land sales in first half 2010.

'Knowing that the government is coming up with more land, developers who have even marginally profitable projects may want to clear the decks and launch their projects this year,' said Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng.

A developer said: 'Most of us feel the impact on demand from the removal of IAS will be more psychological than real as only a minority of buyers have been opting for it in recent months in projects where we charge a price premium for the scheme.'

'Yes, buyers may now take a longer time to make a decision but they will bite if they like the product and if it's priced right,' he added.

Agreeing, Mr Tan said: 'Ultimately if the intention is to sell, they cannot fight the market impression that there must be a price adjustment.'

While removal of IAS will suck out some of the speculative demand from the market, developers remain confident of the fundamentals in the property market, and its attraction to investors in the current low-interest rate environment.

There is also consensus among analysts in stockbroking houses that the government measures will not derail the recovery in the property market. '(The) measures may dampen speculative sentiment but may not stop genuine private home demand if the trajectory of economic recovery continues,' Citigroup noted in a report.

Analysts also observed yesterday that while the increase in private home prices seen in the past few months may have come to a standstill, developers are unlikely to cut prices by much either.

'We believe that developers, buffeted by strong start-of-year sales, are unlikely to cut prices aggressively,' noted DBS Vickers analyst Adrian Chua. 'The key impact would be a slowdown in sales as speculative buying gets flushed out of the market.'

However, property counters such as City Developments Ltd (CDL), CapitaLand and Ho Bee were downgraded by a few analysts. As of yesterday's market closing, CDL has lost 9.4 per cent from its closing price last week. Over the same period, Wing Tai and Allgreen have shed 9.5 per cent, Keppel Land 8.1 per cent, GuocoLand 7.4 per cent, and CapitaLand 4.1 per cent.

The Interlace comprises a total 1,040 units. For the preview that began yesterday, five blocks with 153 units were released. 'The units comprise a selection from a full spectrum of unit types, from two-, three-, three plus study, four-bedroom apartments, townhouses and penthouses. The units range from 807 sq ft to 5,877 sq ft in size.

'These units, located on different levels in the development, also offer various facings - towards the pool, towards the sea, and towards the greenery at HortPark,' a CapitaLand spokeswoman said.

BT understands that the appointed agents for Interlace will begin marketing the project on Friday from a temporary showflat at the corner of Kim Seng and River Valley roads.