Property market sentiments 2010

[Douk]

My view is, the rental and over supply has been going on for a while.. It is not going to have much effect in short term (maybe a year or two). But this will have a cumulative effect when disappointment strikes. For this 1-2 years, the IR stories should still dominate. So price will hold or
move upward unless the world sink into recession again.

As the economy recovers, and china, hk property at near bubble pricing, Singapore is obvious target for international buyer (if ppl believe that next decade belongs to Asia and with that IR stories)

As long as high end segment moves, the mid class segment pricing will be stretched upwards.

With developers still pushing out new projects, they will not run out of stories to rev up the heat. Just my thoughts.

similar views with you.

There are plenty of others who will highlight the positive news, so here's some data from URA website which may not be emphasised by the media (Since its the start of a new year, I am not here for war but to make peace. , just some contrarian info):

For the whole of 2009, rentals of private residential properties decreased by 14.6%. Rentals of non-landed properties in CCR, RCR and OCR decreased by 15.9%, 14.9% and 14.0% respectively.

As at 4th Quarter 2009, there were 60,476 private residential units in the pipeline. Of these, 34,234 units were still unsold. These comprised 3,317 units that had been launched for sale by developers and 10,620 units which had the pre-requisite conditions for sale and could be launched for sale immediately. The remaining 20,297 units with planning approvals did not have the pre-requisite conditions for sale.

Of the 60,476 uncompleted units of private housing from projects in the pipeline, 22,390 units, 17,390 units and 20,696 units were in CCR, RCR and OCR respectively.

Of these, about 45,518 private residential units were expected to be completed between 2010 and 2013.

[bargain hunter]

i agree with you on this. that's why i said, i was just lifting all of that info below directly from the URA website because it will not be emphasised by the media.

My view is, the rental and over supply has been going on for a while.. It is not going to have much effect in short term (maybe a year or two). But this will have a cumulative effect when disappointment strikes. For this 1-2 years, the IR stories should still dominate. So price will hold or
move upward unless the world sink into recession again.

As the economy recovers, and china, hk property at near bubble pricing, Singapore is obvious target for international buyer (if ppl believe that next decade belongs to Asia and with that IR stories)

As long as high end segment moves, the mid class segment pricing will be stretched upwards.

With developers still pushing out new projects, they will not run out of stories to rev up the heat. Just my thoughts.

[Reporter]

HDB prices up 8.1% from a year ago
H88
Friday, 22 January 2010, 17:02



If you have bought your HDB flat a year ago, congratulations because you are on paper 8.1% richer!

The 2009 4th Quarter results from HDB is out, rising 3.9% and beating earlier flash estimates by 0.1%. This brings the year-on-year increase to 8.1% and the resale index to an all-time historical high of 150.8.

The median Cash-Over-Valuation (COV) was S$24,000 over the last quarter, with over 93% of flats selling with COV.

Ladies and gentlemen who hail from HDB dwellings, when you are on your way home tonight, remember to buy a bottle of champagne or flowers for your family. After all your biggest asset has made you 8.1% in a year, more than any fixed deposit in Singapore can dream about. If your flat was worth 300k a year ago, you "earned" 26k!

Oh ... that is unless you have yet to buy a flat to call your own.

[Reporter]

Private home rënts to rïsë
Fiona Chan
The Straits Times
Friday, 22 January 2010, 9.48 pm


Private home rents halted their slump and started to turn around with a 0.6% rise in the fourth quarter of last year. -- Photo: Alphonsus Chern, ST

Things are looking up for landlords of private homes, such as condominiums and landed houses.

After suffering through 5 quarters of rental decline and a 20% drop in rents since 2008, they may finally be able to raise their rates this year.

Private home rents halted their slump and started to turn around with a Ö.6% rïsë in the 4th quarter of last year, according to figures released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Friday.

Although rents still haemorrhaged 14.6% for the whole of last year, consultants say they have stabilised and are on the way to rëcövëry.

'From September last year, we started seeing more landlords räïsë rents off the lows of the 1st and 2nd quarters of last year,' said Mr Donald Han, managing director of Cushman & Wakefield. 'I think the trend will probably continue this year in anticipation of an economic recovery.'

As economic growth picks up, businesses including multinationals are stepping up on hiring and are likely to bring in more expatriates, who form the bulk of tenants of private homes in Singapore, Mr Han said.

[jlrx]

All these arguments about supply and rental going up or down are irrelevant.

Property prices will always go up in the long term. Hence properties should only be bought. Not sold.

That's the central tenet of the Propertism religion. Those who believe in Propertism will attain salvation, whether its 2010 B.C. or A.D. 2010.

Why are Real Estate Prices Escalating in Jerusalem?

by Baruch Finkelstein

(IsraelNN.com)

Anyone who purchases property in the central locations of Jerusalem can rest assured that they invested their money safely, for although, prices may decline for a short period, (although there are no indications presently of a price decline) eventually they will rise again.

When we talk about supply, does that include FEO's eternal supply of unsold condos like Rafflesia? The Bayshore? Tanglin View? Hillview Regency? and goodness knows how many more that have been around for umpteen years?

Should we ask FEO's boss Mr. Ng why he doesn't quickly liquidate all his condos into cash, so that he can:

1. Donate to charity;
2. Buy an Aston Martin;
3. Buy noodles;
4. Go for a luxurious holiday?

[Regulators]

i like colourful areas as well, but not monotone areas with only parapoondeks

I LOVE EAST COAST!!!!!!!!!! Laid back, yet atas feel...

In fact, although I'm not an angmo, my likes are pretty much similar to theirs. Colorful areas, eg. Little India, rowdy market areas etc... are all nice. Just don't want bland boring HDB heartlander estate (because all are sama sama and cookie cutter)...

[gfoo]

properties should never be bought for the sake of buying

honestly understanding the property market here is quite easy as it's highly logical if you think through it.

HDB prices were kept up because of the undersupply situation the HDB created earlier on, coupled with an influx of easy-PRs/citizens who have taken quite a bit of profit from selling their properties back home; a host of locals that benefitted from enbloc; etc etc - a perfect storm propping up HDB values

Existing HDB owners who bought a 5 rm at say $200k can now sell em at $400k. So for them to take profit and upgrade to mass market condos was easy peasy - the gap wasn't that large and it was affordable.

This 'upgrade gap' is important and it defines the relationship of HDB-Mass Market Condos. The smaller the gap, the higher the demand for mass market condos - and inversely. And always remember HDB has been supported by high demand, low online supply, and loose immigration policies.

Then think: what happens when all those flats being released in 2009/2010 come online? and couple this with immigration tightening in an election year to please the masses. then think further about higher interest rates in china and singapore, and the waning of the 'IR' indirect effect. Then add a huge influx of mickey mouse units unprecedented in singapore history, typically owned as a 2nd property of existing HDB or mass market owners.

That's the demand and supply side.

Now start thinking about the launches you've been to and the michael jackson concert effect you experience.

huge masses; bidding effect; lying agents; misleading marketing materials; and out of this world showrooms that don't match up. if you bring a kid to a disneyland castle, he'll start wishing he lived in one and comes up with flights of fancy on how this room will be this, that room will be that, with the devil always whispering in one ear.

all these have today made angsuah the new tanglin, balestier the new novena, lower delta the new river valley, and little india the new prime city area.

5 years ago if someone says: would you like to have a chance to stay next to mustafa, but next to an mrt station, minutes from orchard - all for $550psf. OR: we're building a condo over old docks, with full view of the sea, mrt station and future shopping next door, minutes from CBD - all for $600psf. Which would you have bought?

what holds true in the past, holds true today if you strip away the hype and lies

[gfoo]

In July 09, i made the call for my favourite areas as carribean, sentosa, tg rhu and marina bay.

This year, i make the call for marina bay and tg rhu - esp the latter when govt sales and announcements come online.

[proud owner]

Private home rënts to rïsë
Fiona Chan
The Straits Times
Friday, 22 January 2010, 9.48 pm


Private home rents halted their slump and started to turn around with a 0.6% rise in the fourth quarter of last year. -- Photo: Alphonsus Chern, ST

Things are looking up for landlords of private homes, such as condominiums and landed houses.

After suffering through 5 quarters of rental decline and a 20% drop in rents since 2008, they may finally be able to raise their rates this year.

Private home rents halted their slump and started to turn around with a Ö.6% rïsë in the 4th quarter of last year, according to figures released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Friday.

Although rents still haemorrhaged 14.6% for the whole of last year, consultants say they have stabilised and are on the way to rëcövëry.

'From September last year, we started seeing more landlords räïsë rents off the lows of the 1st and 2nd quarters of last year,' said Mr Donald Han, managing director of Cushman & Wakefield. 'I think the trend will probably continue this year in anticipation of an economic recovery.'

As economic growth picks up, businesses including multinationals are stepping up on hiring and are likely to bring in more expatriates, who form the bulk of tenants of private homes in Singapore, Mr Han said.

landlords raising their rents becos they paid higher and higher price for their properties ..

but actual rental ..has it really gone up ?

why do i still see 3k neg for river valley area .. 1500 sqft 3 bedroom ?

it is obvious theres a surplus of ready to rent units .. and the number will increase ..

although many argue that buyers nowadays can afford to keep them empty ..waiting for capital gain .. this holds true for the rich foreign buyers .. but local buyers ..many would prefer ( or need ) to rent them out asap ..

look at Casa Merah, botannia, etc etc .. and see how many units going for rent.. alot alot

a 4-5 bedroom 2000 sqft asking 5k is common ..

like i said many times in this forum .. we only see/hear from agents .. XXX projects sold for YYYY psf ... and asking $ZZZZ rent per month

BUT we never see/hear from them .. XXX project actually only rent out at $zzzz a mth where zzzz << ZZZZ ..NEVER .. no one dare to disclose .. and yet all arguing its still good yield ..compared to leaving the money in the bank ...

i do think asset prices will still go up .. but rental yield is no longer like before .. and as more and more units going empty for months .. it will be inevitable ..some weaks will succumb and sell below market price ..
and sporeans quite kiasu, kiasi .. see a few sell lower .. it could start a selling trend ..

i know for a fact , 2 above average income friends .. looking to buy .. dont mind tenanted units .. but the tenanted units they viewed so far, which they like, have miserable yield .. and in prime districts .. and they pass on those units .. mind you they have cash ..

so a low rented unit will have problem selling .. at least .. in my opinion ..

[Property_Owner]

Hi people. Maybe cause I own a numbers of units that makes me more of a bull for e time been since prices has been heading north. It's not easy to be holding multiple properties. Sometimes i wish life is just simple as a regular Joe.

You have to know a bit of the history of real estate market of singapore. We used to have a 10 years cycles. Then it was reduced to 7 years. Now it is 2 years. What will happen next of course we don't know. This cycle seen to be getting shorter.

My feel now is that I had just started to see a bit of light @ e end of the tunnel. Of course I hope things will turn out better in next few years.

Can u imagine how it feels after Lehman's. After prices heads south. during e worse days, agents calling me everyday giving me 1300psf for my Reflection, 1500psf for my MBR, 1700psf for Ardmore 2. Asking me how's my business. Trying to test if I'm bleeding. Telling nightmares are coming, winter is here. Sell or you see blood......

Yup, business was not so good for me at that time. I did ask myself, must I sell? Can I hold? Prices are going into a free fall. When is the bottom? If winter really here? Where is tat ''Light''? Life is like a roller coaster ride and it's bad for an old man with a weak heart.

Then I try to think again.... I start to come to senses that since prices are falling...why r there buyers willing to buy and take e risk. If I can hold, why sell? Since I dun sell, must I buy? I must start to behave as a buyer rather as a seller. Be positive, when u call an agent as a buyer...he/she will tells u: Mr buyer...now is the best time to buy...never time e bottom..how low can prices drop...fire sales don't come everyday...(Of course some of you will feel that these words from agents are for marketing only)

Of course there are other factors in my mind during that ''Winter'' duration. One wrong move and i'm heading to my grave, another unforgiving event will wipe out my assets.... ''PAIN=GAIN=RISK=PAIN''

Yup, I know that there r claims to an over-supply now, sucks rental market, USA not doing well. Stock dip these few days...China, Haiti, India...you can think of all e negatives and e lists goes on....

Maybe u can think so other factors...like, as usual Singapore is always one of e first to be out of every recession, we have a first class leaders(guess those from ST forum will start to bash me), strong financial position, strong banking support...think of these and e list goes on too.....

Whether now is the time to buy or sell I can't force you. After all it's your money and you signature on tat option.

Choose your decision carefully.

an agent once suan me...Mr P, you better think carefully. As an agent I can afford to miss e deal. There are still 400 plus unit in MBR for me to sell. but you as a buyer how many deals can you afford to miss? How many units can you buy in your life time. You decide.

That all for now.
Cheers.

[jlrx]

all these have today made angsuah the new tanglin, balestier the new novena, lower delta the new river valley, and little india the new prime city area.

5 years ago if someone says: would you like to have a chance to stay next to mustafa, but next to an mrt station, minutes from orchard - all for $550psf. OR: we're building a condo over old docks, with full view of the sea, mrt station and future shopping next door, minutes from CBD - all for $600psf. Which would you have bought?

This is a very good post that supports the Propertism religious belief that property prices will always go up in the long term, simply because fiat money will lose all its value in the end.

At the end fiat money returns to its inner value—zero.” - Voltaire. François-Marie Arouet (21 November 1694 – 30 May 1778).

The action of fiat money returning to its inner value - zero - is manifested by angsuah the new tanglin, balestier the new novena, lower delta the new river valley, and little india the new prime city area.

30 years ago, who would have thought that angsuah could sell for $1,332 psf (The Metropolitan #24-04, 25 Sep 2009)?

It's really "what holds true in the past, holds true today if you strip away the hype and lies".

Just look at the "Incredible Offer" below!!!

This lying agent had the gall to advertise a 3,400 sf Grange Heights apartment as a "Luxurious Condominium" for $650,000 with vacant possession! That's $191 psf!!!

Didn't this lying agent know that Grange Heights was not in the prime part of River Valley, and vacant possession meant no rental!!! ZERO RENTAL YIELD!!! (proud owner will strongly object to this one).

Which fool would pay $191 psf for a condo hidden far from the main River Valley Road, with no rental yield some more? Really an "Incredible Offer"!!!



Someone here may want to give this agent a scolding, but remember to add a "6" in front of his telephone number, not a "9" or "8" because this stupid agent didn't even bother to apply for a mobile phone.

Wonder how we're going to reach him if he's out of his office. Stupid!!!

[Property_Owner]

This is a very good post that supports the Propertism religious belief that property prices will al....................

Lol, now my hangover is gone..

Good night

[moneyspinner]

Hi people. Maybe cause I own a numbers of units that makes me more of a bull for e time been since prices has been heading north. It's not easy to be holding multiple properties. Sometimes i wish life is just simple as a regular Joe.

You have to know a bit of the history of real estate market of singapore. We used to have a 10 years cycles. Then it was reduced to 7 years. Now it is 2 years. What will happen next of course we don't know. This cycle seen to be getting shorter.

My feel now is that I had just started to see a bit of light @ e end of the tunnel. Of course I hope things will turn out better in next few years.

Can u imagine how it feels after Lehman's. After prices heads south. during e worse days, agents calling me everyday giving me 1300psf for my Reflection, 1500psf for my MBR, 1700psf for Ardmore 2. Asking me how's my business. Trying to test if I'm bleeding. Telling nightmares are coming, winter is here. Sell or you see blood......

Yup, business was not so good for me at that time. I did ask myself, must I sell? Can I hold? Prices are going into a free fall. When is the bottom? If winter really here? Where is tat ''Light''? Life is like a roller coaster ride and it's bad for an old man with a weak heart.

Then I try to think again.... I start to come to senses that since prices are falling...why r there buyers willing to buy and take e risk. If I can hold, why sell? Since I dun sell, must I buy? I must start to behave as a buyer rather as a seller. Be positive, when u call an agent as a buyer...he/she will tells u: Mr buyer...now is the best time to buy...never time e bottom..how low can prices drop...fire sales don't come everyday...(Of course some of you will feel that these words from agents are for marketing only)

Of course there are other factors in my mind during that ''Winter'' duration. One wrong move and i'm heading to my grave, another unforgiving event will wipe out my assets.... ''PAIN=GAIN=RISK=PAIN''

Yup, I know that there r claims to an over-supply now, sucks rental market, USA not doing well. Stock dip these few days...China, Haiti, India...you can think of all e negatives and e lists goes on....

Maybe u can think so other factors...like, as usual Singapore is always one of e first to be out of every recession, we have a first class leaders(guess those from ST forum will start to bash me), strong financial position, strong banking support...think of these and e list goes on too.....

Whether now is the time to buy or sell I can't force you. After all it's your money and you signature on tat option.

Choose your decision carefully.

an agent once suan me...Mr P, you better think carefully. As an agent I can afford to miss e deal. There are still 400 plus unit in MBR for me to sell. but you as a buyer how many deals can you afford to miss? How many units can you buy in your life time. You decide.

That all for now.
Cheers.

This is an excellent reflection of what many, I dare say, are going through in deciding whether to take the plunge in view of so many ongoing uncertainties. And these uncertainties are not going to end anytime soon. In fact, if any, it appears to have increased heightening violatility concerns both in the equities and the property market. What will most probably be the market direction in the foreseeable future will decide whether the decision should be a BUY or a SELL. It's not easy!

[samsara]

This is an excellent reflection of what many, I dare say, are going through in deciding whether to take the plunge in view of so many ongoing uncertainties. And these uncertainties are not going to end anytime soon. In fact, if any, it appears to have increased heightening violatility concerns both in the equities and the property market. What will most probably be the market direction in the foreseeable future will decide whether the decision should be a BUY or a SELL. It's not easy!

The modern monetary system is a big fiasco. Through inflation, the masses lose their wealth as currency values are eroded. For the man-in-street, it is an endless uphill climb against ever-increasing prices in commodities and other items for basic sustenance.

Are properties worth more today simply because Singapore has become a better place to stay, play and work in? Personally, I believe inflation has a large part to play in the huge rise in prices over the last few decades. The purchasing power of the SGD has dropped tremendously. I remember my grandmother talking about 5c noodles and my dad reminiscing about 30c packets of Chui Kueh (6 in a brown paper pack). Today, these can't be found for anything less than a few dollars.

Ultimately, given the close links between property prices and inflation that we have seen so far, the bet then becomes one on whether inflation will continue to soar. If one subscribes to that belief, he had better be hedged against it to avoid being priced out of the market.

The sad thing about the situation is that the divide between the rich and the poor will continue to grow. The rich will find it easier to become richer while the poor will find it tougher to even just cope with daily living. As long as this trend is not reversed, there is only one inevitable outcome - anarchy as the masses rebel against the system. From the ashes and dust will then come a new system of growth and decay, similarly powered by the human emotions of greed and fear.

[moneyspinner]

The modern monetary system is a big fiasco. Through inflation, the masses lose their wealth as currency values are eroded. For the man-in-street, it is an endless uphill climb against ever-increasing prices in commodities and other items for basic sustenance.

Are properties worth more today simply because Singapore has become a better place to stay, play and work in? Personally, I believe inflation has a large part to play in the huge rise in prices over the last few decades. The purchasing power of the SGD has dropped tremendously. I remember my grandmother talking about 5c noodles and my dad reminiscing about 30c packets of Chui Kueh (6 in a brown paper pack). Today, these can't be found for anything less than a few dollars.

Ultimately, given the close links between property prices and inflation that we have seen so far, the bet then becomes one on whether inflation will continue to soar. If one subscribes to that belief, he had better be hedged against it to avoid being priced out of the market.

The sad thing about the situation is that the divide between the rich and the poor will continue to grow. The rich will find it easier to become richer while the poor will find it tougher to even just cope with daily living. As long as this trend is not reversed, there is only one inevitable outcome - anarchy as the masses rebel against the system. From the ashes and dust will then come a new system of growth and decay, similarly powered by the human emotions of greed and fear.

Ageed. The big issue is INFLATION. If you can afford, its better to hedge than not to hedge as over time, the $ you hold will not be able to get the quantum of things you wish to purchase. It all boils down to unlimited $ vs limited properties/commodities available.

[Reporter]

Almost äll 120 released Cube 8 units söld
CDL intends to release additional units in the 177-unit freehold condo over the weekend
Kalpana Rashiwala
The Business Times Weekend
Saturday, 23 January 2010


Cube 8

City Developments Ltd (CDL) has sold almost all of the 120 units it had released as of yesterday evening at its Cube 8 condo at Thomson Road during a two-day preview. Most of the units were sold yesterday .

CDL released an initial 80 units at an average price of $1,250 psf but due to strong demand, offered a further 40 units. Prïcës of the latter batch are understood to have been ïncrëäsëd slightly, probably in the order of 2%-3%.

The company said yesterday evening that it intends to release additional units in the 177-unit freehold condo over the weekend. 'The strong sales-to-date for Cube 8 reflects the positive sentiment in the property market and attests to our ability to market the appropriate products at the right time,' said CDL's group general manager Chia Ngiang Hong.

1- and 2-bedrooms were the first to be snapped; for 3-bedders, higher floor units were in greater demand, BT understands. The 36-storey condo is being built on the site of the former The Albany and Thomson Mansions in District 11. The 39 1-bedders have been sold out and a substantial number of the 58 2-bedroom apartments have also found takers.

The one bedders, with an area of 560 sqft, were priced from $740,000 upwards, BT understands. Prices of 2-bedders start from $1.1 million while 3-bedroom apartments, ranging from 1,335-1,475 sqft, cost anywhere from nearly $1.6-1.8 million. 4-bedders are priced at about $2.5 million each, while sky villas or penthouses cost at least $3.5 million apiece.

BT understands that Singaporeans had bought the majority of units as of yesterday. Förëïgnërs (including permanent residents) picked up about 20-25%. Ïndönësïäns, Indians and Koreans were among those said to have bought.

CDL opened the showflat to former owners of The Albany and Thomson Mansions on Thursday. After they had made their selections, directors and staff were invited. The 'public preview' began yesterday.

CB Richard Ellis and Huttons are the marketing agents for Cube 8.

[Reporter]

Property market eyes fruits from Rëmäkïng Singapore
Analysts büllïsh after URA data shows hike in Q4 prices and dïp in väcäncïës
Kalpana Rashiwala
The Business Times Weekend
Saturday, 23 January 2010

The increase in Singapore private home prices moderated in the 4th quarter, but there are also signs of things firming again if the economy continues to grow. After all, much of the physical infrastructure for the Rëmäkïng Singapore story is being delivered thïs yëär.



Urban Redevelopment Authority's private residential rëntäl indices posted modest quarter-on-quarter increases in Q4 - marking a rëvërsäl of the declines posted in the preceding quarter. The islandwide väcäncy rate for private homes dïppëd to 5% as at end-2009, compared with 6.2% as at end-Q3 2009 and 6.1% as at end-2008.

A total 10,488 private homes received Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) last year - the highest level since 2004 when 11,799 homes were completed. Taking into account demolitions, the net increase in the stock of completed private homes last year was 8,285. However, there was an even bïggër net jümp in dëmänd for physically cömplëtëd private homes last year to a 9-year high of 10,520 units, said Colliers Intenational.

DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah argues that with the number of private homes receiving TOP this year expected to slip 28% to 7,584 units (based on URA's surveys of developers), väcäncy will eäsë fürthër and rënts will continue to fïrm üp across the board.

Singapore also expects to see an influx of workers and expats as the integrated resorts and Marina Bay Financial Centre become operational. This will drive up demand for rental homes across the whole spectrum - from HDB flats to upscale condos.

Landed home prices, especially those for terrace houses, posted a sparkling performance last year. URA's landed property price index rose 7.7% in 2009, compared with just a 0.5% rise for non-landed homes. The terrace house price index appreciated 10% in 2009, followed by semi-detached houses (up 8.8%) and detached houses, (up 5.6%). Agents credit the landed sector's resilience to its relatively more limited supply.

URA's overall private home price index (covering both landed and non-landed segments) rose 7.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, translating to a full-year increase of 1.8%. The index slipped 18.1% in the 1st half of 2009 before recovering 24.3% in the July to December period.

Developers sold 14,688 units in 2009, nearly 3.5 times the 2008 figure and close to the all-time high of 14,811 in 2007. DTZ's South-east Asia research head Chua Chor Hoon forecasts a take-up of 8,000 to 10,000 units in 2010. Consultants generally predict 8 to 15% increase this year for URA's overall private home price index, with greater upside for high-end homes.

Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng, however, said the pace of price increase for upmarket homes will depend on how many expat tenants pour into Singapore and the size of their rental budgets since the majority of such properties are bought for investment.

On the other hand, mass-market private condo prices may still have room to power up, assuming HDB resale flat prices continue to rally, and especially if the condo launches are in plum locations, Mr Tan added. 'Landed homes will also continue to do well in 2010 due to the scarcity factor,' he added.

URA's figures also show that the supply pipeline of private homes with either provisional or written permission shrank from nearly 65,000 at end-2008 to 60,476 units at end-2009. The number of unsold units in uncompleted private housing projects contracted from 43,414 at end-2008 to 34,234 at end-2009, reflecting developers strong sales last year.

The office market achieved its second consecutive quarter of positive net demand of 301,389 sqft in Q4 2009, higher than the 32,292 sqft posted in Q3. For full year, net demand was minus 236,806 sqft; nonetheless, this was better than in 2002 and 2003, when net demand was minus 926,000 sqft and 1.13 million sqft respectively, notes Colliers director Tay Huey Ying.

Islandwide office vacancy improved slightly from 12.2% at end-Q3 2009 to 12.1% at end-Q4.

The median monthly rental for the choicer Category 1 office space based on rental contracts signed in Q4 was $8.76 psf, down 7.8% from Q3. DTZ says a recovery in office rentals at the end of this year is plausible if the economy grows more strongly than expected and more existing office blocks are redeveloped.

In the retail property segment, URA's shop rental index for the Central Region dipped 1.4% in Q4 over the preceding quarter, resulting in a 7.4% full-year drop. Despite another 404,723 sqft of new shop space being completed in Q4, the islandwide shop vacancy rate improved to 5.7% from 6% in Q3.

Knight Frank's Mr Tan said: 'There is a lot of confidence that with the completion of the IRs, there will be multiplier effects for the retail and private residential property markets. The IRs will attract a lot of MICE visitors, who tend to have higher spending power than the typical tourist. Some overseas visitors drawn by IRs may end up liking Singapore and want to buy a home here, especially if there are prospects of economic recovery.'

'The Government began telling the Rëmäkïng of Singapore story about 5 years ago. Now the physical part of the story is almost ready. And it's about time to reap the fruits of these investments.'

[jlrx]

Can u imagine how it feels after Lehman's.

Yes I can.

Although I have no intention of selling my properties whether the market goes up or down, it's really demoralising to see the numbers in my portfolio spreadsheet going down.

That's why it's very important to have a religion - Propertism - so that in times of crisis you can have the faith that property prices will always go up in the long term, simply because fiat money will eventually return to its inner value - zero.

The modern monetary system is a big fiasco. Through inflation, the masses lose their wealth as currency values are eroded.

I remember my grandmother talking about 5c noodles and my dad reminiscing about 30c packets of Chui Kueh.

That is the central tenet of the Propertism religion - that even wise men centuries ago had been able to foresee.

"At the end fiat money returns to its inner value—zero.” - Voltaire François-Marie Arouet (21 November 1694 – 30 May 1778).

"Of all the contrivances for cheating the laboring classes of mankind, none has been more effective than that which deludes them with paper money." Daniel Webster (January 18, 1782 – October 24, 1852) 19th United States Secretary of State.


In order to avoid being "cheated" like what happened to the laboring class, we have to find salvation in Propertism - the belief that property prices will always go up in the long term. Hence properties should only be bought, not sold.

Let us learn from the tribulations of 34 extremely unlucky but faithful Propertist families who bought Pin Tjoe Park in 1984, just before Singapore's first recession hit in 1985.



At $320 psf and average apartment size of 2756 sf, each of these 34 pitiful families paid a whopping $882,000 per unit, just before Singapore's first recession hit in 1985.

Who can be more unlucky than them?

Ministry of Trade and Industry Statement "The period of easy growth is now over. The recession of 1985 and 1986 is a turning point in our economic development ... Property Market - The excess supply of properties will take time to be absorbed."


Poor pitiful Pin Tjoe Park buyers ... they must be the most unlucky people in the world. The only person more unlucky than them is Mr. Tan Chin Tuan who bought his Tan Chin Tuan mansion in 1939, just before World War II broke out (Ok that's another story ).

Business Times – 22 Sep 2006
Pontiac Land Group buys Pin Tjoe Court for $201m
(SINGAPORE) The existing Pin Tjoe Court comprises 32 apartments and two penthouses. The apartment owners will receive $5.5 million per unit and the penthouse owners $11 million per unit. These sums are about 75 per cent more than the units could fetch had they been sold individually.

****************************************************

I find this Pin Tjoe Park quite interesting, although the price of $320 psf is a bit steep.

I'd wanted to go down to their show room later before they close at 5.00pm, but I just can't seem to get through to their number printed at the bottom-right corner of their advertisement. The line's dead.

Strange ... 7330055 ... how come only 7 digits? Starting with a "7" ... is that a fixed line or mobile?

Nevermind. Better not buy. Forget it!

My fortune teller just told me that next year 1985 Singapore will suffer it's first recession since independence, and property prices will drop 38% !!!

[DuffyDuck]

This is how human being re-acts:

• Buying Property for Investment or Own Stay = Must Find the cheapest and the best unit available in the project.

• When Property Price goes up = Cashing in the profit, buy more property, push up the market price, speculate and be greedy

.

• When Property Price goes south = Panic selling, everyone wants to get out, cut lost.

• When Property market not moving = Worry, predict whether the property is going north or south.

• When you buy your property at the right time = They tend to enjoy what they own.

• When you buy your property at the wrong time = We blame on everyone.

As long as property market does move too much within these few years, everyone will be happy. If happen to go south, then a chaos will happen and will directly hunt Singapore Economy .........

[samsara]

This is how human being re-acts:

• Buying Property for Investment or Own Stay = Must Find the cheapest and the best unit available in the project.

• When Property Price goes up = Cashing in the profit, buy more property, push up the market price, speculate and be greedy

.

• When Property Price goes south = Panic selling, everyone wants to get out, cut lost.

• When Property market not moving = Worry, predict whether the property is going north or south.

• When you buy your property at the right time = They tend to enjoy what they own.

• When you buy your property at the wrong time = We blame on everyone.

As long as property market does move too much within these few years, everyone will be happy. If happen to go south, then a chaos will happen and will directly hunt Singapore Economy .........

There is potential for chaos to arise because of the information gap that is present in our system. The lack of systemic transparency and knowledge/awareness of the financial system by the masses means that whenever the amount of changes (forced or otherwise) exceed the implicit tolerance threshold of human nature, the natural corrective actions are usually quite cataclysmic. The greater the gap, the more extreme the correction.

This is seen in not only the property markets but also in stock markets and any other systems where there is large information/knowledge disparity. The larger the gaps, the bigger the corrections that must inevitably take place to reattain temporary equilibrium in the systems (like a pressure cooker must let off some steam at some point in time to avoid a total systemic collapse or breakdown).

[Reporter]

Private rentals inch upwards
Turnaround comes after 5 quarters of decline
Weekend Today
Saturday, 23 January 2010

Rentals of private residential properties inched 0.6% higher in the 4th quarter of last year, reversing 5 straight quarters of decline. This was a turnaround compared to a decrease of 2.2% posted in the third quarter of last year.

The uptick in rentals was supported by the take-up rate which outstrips supply last year, said Colliers International’s research and advisory director, Ms Tay Huey Ying.

“While the net increase in the stock of private homes hit a 5-year high of 8,285 units in 2009,
demand for physically completed homes hit a 9-year hïgh
, to record at 10,520 units,” she said.

This pushed
occupancy rate to an all-time hïgh of 95%
by end-2009, from 93.9% in end-2008,” she added.

The improving economy has a part to play as well.

“The leasing market also leveraged on the improving economic fundamentals in 2H2009 and began to stabilise,” said CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho.

By regions, rental of non-landed properties in the prime areas known as the Core Central Region (CCR) and the city fringe areas or Rest of Central Region (RCR) increased by 0.9% and 0.1% respectively in the 4th quarter.

Meanwhile, rental rates for properties in other areas or those known as Outside Central Region (OCR) remained unchanged.

Overall rentals have fallen 14.6% for the whole of last year but were back at mid-2007 levels by Q4, added Mr Li.

Colliers’ Ms Tay expect rents to rise by 5 to 10% this year.

“The number of expatriates is expected to rise in 2010 given the improving business climate and confidence that will lead more firms to consider re-activating hiring plans,” she added.

She expects high-end homes in the CCR, traditionally more popular with expatriates, to experience faster rental growth of 8% to 12%. The mid-tier segment in the RCR is expected to see rental upside of 5% to 8%, while mass-market homes could see rental movements of up to 3%, she added.

Meanwhile, Urban Redevelopment Authority’s final price index showed a growth of 7.4% quarter-on-quarter growth for private homes in Q4, slightly higher than the flash estimate of 7.3%.

Sub-sales clocked 599 units in the 4th quarter — down from 1,342 homes in the previous quarter. In percentage terms however, subsales accounted for 10.3% of all sale transactions in Q4, comparable to the 10.6% in Q3.

Analysts expect private property prices to moderate this year in the light of government’s stance that it would intervene with more measures should the property price growth runs ahead of the economy. Contrary to last year’s bull run in the mass market segment, high-end and luxury properties are expected to lead the market.

[Reporter]

landlords raising their rents becos they paid higher and higher price for their properties ..

but actual rental ..has it really gone up ?

why do i still see 3k neg for river valley area .. 1500 sqft 3 bedroom ?

it is obvious theres a surplus of ready to rent units .. and the number will increase ..

although many argue that buyers nowadays can afford to keep them empty ..waiting for capital gain .. this holds true for the rich foreign buyers .. but local buyers ..many would prefer ( or need ) to rent them out asap ..

look at Casa Merah, botannia, etc etc .. and see how many units going for rent.. alot alot

a 4-5 bedroom 2000 sqft asking 5k is common ..

like i said many times in this forum .. we only see/hear from agents .. XXX projects sold for YYYY psf ... and asking $ZZZZ rent per month

BUT we never see/hear from them .. XXX project actually only rent out at $zzzz a mth where zzzz << ZZZZ ..NEVER .. no one dare to disclose .. and yet all arguing its still good yield ..compared to leaving the money in the bank ...

i do think asset prices will still go up .. but rental yield is no longer like before .. and as more and more units going empty for months .. it will be inevitable ..some weaks will succumb and sell below market price ..
and sporeans quite kiasu, kiasi .. see a few sell lower .. it could start a selling trend ..

i know for a fact , 2 above average income friends .. looking to buy .. dont mind tenanted units .. but the tenanted units they viewed so far, which they like, have miserable yield .. and in prime districts .. and they pass on those units .. mind you they have cash ..

so a low rented unit will have problem selling .. at least .. in my opinion ..

We all know it is nice to debate on topics with juicing subjects as such "Will Rivergate drop below $1,000 psf?", "Rental is dropping as nobody is renting!", etc.. However, we should realise that situations can change and we need to be updated and change too.

For the Rivergate case, shouldn't we be discussing "Will Rivergate rise above $2,500 psf?" now that it has hit $1,909 psf?

For rental, why are we still talking about rental dropping, no tenant, etc.?
1. Rënt has rïsen 0.6% in Q4 2009.
2. Dëmänd for physically completed homes has hit a 9-year hïgh.
3. Occüpäncy rate has hit an äll-tïme hïgh of 95%.

Shouldn't we be discussing "Can CCR rent rise more than 12% this year?"? I believe this is more appropriate.


Instead of repeating the hearsays over and over again, why not just get yourself updated with the latest facts at this very moment in this forum? These facts will be beneficial to you.

Private rentals inch upwards
Turnaround comes after 5 quarters of decline
Weekend Today
Saturday, 23 January 2010

Rentals of private residential properties inched 0.6% higher in the 4th quarter of last year, reversing 5 straight quarters of decline. This was a turnaround compared to a decrease of 2.2% posted in the third quarter of last year.

The uptick in rentals was supported by the take-up rate which outstrips supply last year, said Colliers International’s research and advisory director, Ms Tay Huey Ying.

“While the net increase in the stock of private homes hit a 5-year high of 8,285 units in 2009,
demand for physically completed homes hit a 9-year hïgh
, to record at 10,520 units,” she said.

This pushed
occupancy rate to an all-time hïgh of 95%
by end-2009, from 93.9% in end-2008,” she added.

The improving economy has a part to play as well.

“The leasing market also leveraged on the improving economic fundamentals in 2H2009 and began to stabilise,” said CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho.

By regions, rental of non-landed properties in the prime areas known as the Core Central Region (CCR) and the city fringe areas or Rest of Central Region (RCR) increased by 0.9% and 0.1% respectively in the 4th quarter.

Meanwhile, rental rates for properties in other areas or those known as Outside Central Region (OCR) remained unchanged.

Overall rentals have fallen 14.6% for the whole of last year but were back at mid-2007 levels by Q4, added Mr Li.

Colliers’ Ms Tay expect rents to rise by 5 to 10% this year.

“The number of expatriates is expected to rise in 2010 given the improving business climate and confidence that will lead more firms to consider re-activating hiring plans,” she added.

She expects high-end homes in the CCR, traditionally more popular with expatriates, to experience faster rental growth of 8% to 12%. The mid-tier segment in the RCR is expected to see rental upside of 5% to 8%, while mass-market homes could see rental movements of up to 3%, she added.

Meanwhile, Urban Redevelopment Authority’s final price index showed a growth of 7.4% quarter-on-quarter growth for private homes in Q4, slightly higher than the flash estimate of 7.3%.

Sub-sales clocked 599 units in the 4th quarter — down from 1,342 homes in the previous quarter. In percentage terms however, subsales accounted for 10.3% of all sale transactions in Q4, comparable to the 10.6% in Q3.

Analysts expect private property prices to moderate this year in the light of government’s stance that it would intervene with more measures should the property price growth runs ahead of the economy. Contrary to last year’s bull run in the mass market segment, high-end and luxury properties are expected to lead the market.

[Reporter]

Press Release
Core Central (CCR) boom expected on back of private property stability
PropNex
Friday, 22 January 2010

The private residential property market continued its recovery in 4Q09 with a 7.4% increase in its price index to 165.7, just 11.8 points shy of the previous peak in 2Q08 of 177.5.

“We are seeing signs of stability and the potential for sustained growth,” says PropNex CEO Mr Mohamed Ismail, recalling his earlier comments that the price index’s sudden and sharp recovery in 3Q09, with a 15.8% increase over 2Q09, was unlikely to continue at that rate.

“The bullish showing in 2009, especially for mass market projects, has cooled down, now that the demand for such properties, mainly by HDB upgraders, has largely been sated,” he says. “This is evident in the fact that the prices in the Outside Central region (OCR), where the mass market projects are located, only increased by 6.3%. In addition, there were fewer mass market launches in the last quarter of 2009, unlike the middle of the year when hundreds of units would be launched in each project per month.”

He contrasts this with the Core Central region (CCR) and Rest of Central region (RCR), whose prices showed greater increases of 7.3% and 9.5% in 4Q09 respectively.

“The OCR prices increased by 11.8% for 2009 as a whole, while the CCR's and RCR’s prices dropped by 1.8% and increased by 3.0% respectively, because 2009 saw many HDB upgraders entering the mass market,” Mr Ismail explains. “In 2010, we are more likely to see investors returning with confidence to pick up properties in the CCR and RCR at reasonable prices.

He cites The Shore Residences at Amber Road (median sale price of $1,144psf), Parvis at Holland Hill (median sale price of $1,495psf) and Espada at St. Thomas Road (median sale price of $2,337psf) as examples of such properties.

“The latest figures show us that there is still a demand for property,” observes Mr Ismail, “with buyers exhibiting confidence that prices will continue to hold. In fact, I expect the CCR and RCR to lead the private property growth in 2010.”

Mr Ismail forecasts an average growth of 3–4% per quarter in URA’s price index for 2010, with overall growths of 5–8% for the OCR, 8–10% for the RCR and 12–18% for the CCR.

He concludes by explaining that prices in 2010 will also continue to rise due to more developers launching smaller units at higher psf costs, especially from 2Q10 onwards.

[Reporter]

Singapore Property Sector
Cube 8 more than 80% sold over weekend preview
Vikrant Pandey
Singapore Research Team
UOB Kay Hian
Monday, 25 January 2010

We visited the preview of Cube 8 condo located at Thomson Road over the weekend. The developer, City Developments, launched about 120 units during the initial preview (22-24 January) but due to the strong buying demand, it released the remaining 57 units in the project as well. The project saw a strong take-up with more than 140 units (about 80%) sold at an ASP of S$1,200 psf - S$1,300 psf. The strong demand reinforces our positive view on the sustainability of the recovery in the property market. We expect sales momentum to remain at healthy levels of 8000-10,000 units for the whole year and expect the property prices to appreciate by 10-15% in 2010.

Cube 8
Developer: . City Developments Ltd
Location: ... Thomson Road (District 11)
Region: ..... Central Core Region (CCR)
Total Units: 177
Tenure: ..... Freehold
Site Area: .. 72,587 sqft
Type: ........ Condominium
Unit type: .. 1/2/3/4 bedrooms, luxury penthouses
Estimated TOP date: December 2014
Take-up: ... Approx 80%
Avg price (S$psf): S$1,200 - S$1,400psf
Expected yield: 3.25 - 3.5%

[jlrx]

Can u imagine how it feels after Lehman's. Life is like a roller coaster ride and it's bad for an old man with a weak heart. One wrong move and i'm heading to my grave, another unforgiving event will wipe out my assets.... ''PAIN=GAIN=RISK=PAIN''

The post above by the Elder of Propertism, Property_Owner who owns 40+ properties, about how he survived the Lehman crisis demonstrates the eternal truth that there could not be gain without pain.

Often, people feel envious or even jealous of the en bloc millionaires. But do people know the pain behind the gain?

In today's sermon on the Propertism religion - the belief that propery prices will always go up in the long term - I will relate the story of a young couple, Mr. & Mrs. Jeremy Lai.

Sometime in mid 1974, Mr. and Mrs. Jeremy Lai bought a 3000 sq ft unit at Singapore's first condominium, Beverly Mai, for $235,000 after seeing the following classified advertisement.


The rental yield looked good. $2,500 p.m. or $30,000 p.a., that's 12.8% p.a. !!!

Unfortunately, 3 months after they bought Beverly Mai, the Singapore Building Society Co-operative raised interest rates by 2% to 11.3% , which is still reasonable compared to those of banks, which amounted to 13.5% !!!
Unfortunately, for individual members of the Co-operative like Mr. Jeremy Lai, the actual interest rate in fact came to 14.5% !!!



Now, Mr. & Mrs. Jeremy Lai were not super-wealthy people. Mr. Lai ran a small business with uncertain income averaging $2,000 per month, while Mrs. Lai was a school teacher earning $800 per month.

They had to depend on the rental to cover their mortgage.

To their dismay, the rental yield of $2,500 p.m. promised by the agent's ad was too good to be true. They managed to rent out for only $2,000 p.m. and had to top up $800 p.m, effectively wiping out Mrs. Lai's entire school teacher salary. But they managed to hang on ...

Life was tough. The Vietnam War was raging on. On Christmas Day 1978, Vietnam attacked Cambodia. Singapore's Armed Forces was on standby. The then Prime Minister, Mr. Lee Kuan Yew, warned Vietnam that if they crossed into Thailand, our A-4 Skyhawks would meet them at the Thai border.

The Straits Times, 1 Feb 2009

Lee Wei Ling (daughter of Lee Kuan Yew) wrote "My parents called a family meeting in their bedroom soon after Saigon fell. My father, Mr Lee Kuan Yew, then Singapore’s Prime Minister, told us: ‘Mama and I will stay here to the bitter end. Hsien Loong is already in the SAF and must do his duty. But the three of you need not feel obliged to stay."

At this point, the Beverly Mai tenant left. It's very hard to find tenants when the Prime Minister of Singapore was preparing his A-4 Skyhawks to fight to the bitter end. (Is that an understatement? )

To make matters worst, Mr. Jeremy Lai's business was badly hit. So the family depended on Mrs. Lai's $800 p.m. teacher's salary to service the mortgage at an interest rate of 14.5% p.a.

It would not be an understatement to say that you need nerves of steel to service a mortgage at 14.5% p.a. with the People's Army of Vietnam (not Property Liberation Army) on offensive mode. Yet I see posts in this forum trying to scare people about the SIBOR rate creeping up from its current rate of 0.678%.

It is during difficult times like this that a strong faith in Propertism is most vital. Propertism believes that property prices will always go up in the long term simply because fiat money will return to its eventual value of ZERO. Hence properties should only be bought. Not sold. Unless through en bloc, then quickly buy a replacement property.

Business Times – 27 Apr 2006

HPL bags Beverly Mai for $238m

HOTEL Properties Ltd (HPL) has clinched Beverly Mai on Tomlinson Road through a $238 million collective sale.

The owners of Beverly Mai’s 50 apartments will receive slightly over $4.4 million per apartment while the two penthouse owners will walk away with double that amount – about $8.81 million per unit. These sums represent collective sale premiums of 76 per cent to 146 per cent – depending on which benchmark is used – in terms of what the apartments would have fetched on an individual basis.

Note: The name of the Condominium and protagonists in this sermon have been changed to protect their true identity.

[Reporter]

UBS Singapore Property 22 Jan 2010

..........
..........

Early signs of demand for luxury homes, prices could rise 40% in 2010
In Dec 09, developers reported early signs of demand for high-end homes. Capitaland sold 126 units in Urban Suites at $3M - $5M each while villas in Sentosa sold for $14M - $22M each. Property consultants now believe luxury home prices could reach 2007 peaks for selected projects. We maintain our forecasts for prime prices but expect luxury prices to rise 40% to S$4000psf by end-2010.

..........

We also believe luxury residential prices could surprise the market. Over the last 2 months, developers and property consultants also saw early demand for high-end residential projects. We now forecast luxury prices separately and expect luxury residential prices to rise by 40% while prime residential prices rise by 20%.

..........
..........

Rise 40%?
By end-2010?
Dunno wadda say!

Brothers and sisters, we have only 11 months left to end-2010.

[new2mondrian]

You have to know a bit of the history of real estate market of singapore. We used to have a 10 years cycles. Then it was reduced to 7 years. Now it is 2 years. What will happen next of course we don't know. This cycle seen to be getting shorter.

My feel now is that I had just started to see a bit of light @ e end of the tunnel. Of course I hope things will turn out better in next few years.Of course there are other factors in my mind during that ''Winter'' duration. One wrong move and i'm heading to my grave, another unforgiving event will wipe out my assets.... ''PAIN=GAIN=RISK=PAIN''

Yup, I know that there r claims to an over-supply now, sucks rental market, USA not doing well. Stock dip these few days...China, Haiti, India...you can think of all e negatives and e lists goes on....

Maybe u can think so other factors...like, as usual Singapore is always one of e first to be out of every recession, we have a first class leaders(guess those from ST forum will start to bash me), strong financial position, strong banking support...think of these and e list goes on too.....

Whether now is the time to buy or sell I can't force you. After all it's your money and you signature on tat option.

Choose your decision carefully.


That all for now.
Cheers.

Agree that cycles are now getting shorter, and over the long term, Singapore having strong leadership and strong fundamentals will translate into stable property prices.

But having said that, I do know of tonnes of people who bought during previous property cycles and are still bleeding in negative equity, not taking into account all the interest/maintenance fees and opportunity cost of capital sum invested forgone. And I am not talking about 99-year leasehold properties such as the infamous Parc Oasis. History is abound with examples such as Royal Court (FH) in D21 which was sold by for $800psf by the developer for 2-bedders in 1998, which is still transacted at below $700psf. And when I was looking at Opera Estate landed housing last year, a few of the terrace houses which I considered at $1.3M to $1.5M were bought by their owners more than 20 years ago for $1M to $1.4M (just go to the caveats lodged in INLIS and you can see the original prices, or a FOC way is to consult nationproperty.sg). I generally agree that property do hold their intrinsic values over time, but it is a dangerous assumption that property is the only and most reliable form of investment, especially for a lot of middle-income earners who might not have the means to afford multiple investment properties.

To me, property is all about holding power. To own the property, one must have the means to pay for it, not based on future income streams (it is worrying to see some of my friends taking 90% loans to service their dream property and their existing bank/cpf balances is simply enough to pay the first 10%; and it is even more so to see people using rental from the 1st investment property to leverage against the 2nd property purchase). You are absolutely right about cycles being shorter. To me, the greater implication of cycles being shorter means that economic downturns, retrenchments and wage cuts being more frequent and contract work becomes more predominant. To the uber-rich, this is not an area of concern. But to the ordinary man-in-the-street who buys based on herd instinct and developer gimmicks, it can mean years of pain down the road.

On a personal level, I certainly hope that 2010 is a year of a property bull-run. Guess I won't be buying anything, but it is good to see my portfolio appreciating. Let's all hope for the best.

[bernardy]

Agree that cycles are now getting shorter, and over the long term, Singapore having strong leadership and strong fundamentals will translate into stable property prices.

But having said that, I do know of tonnes of people who bought during previous property cycles and are still bleeding in negative equity, not taking into account all the interest/maintenance fees and opportunity cost of capital sum invested forgone. And I am not talking about 99-year leasehold properties such as the infamous Parc Oasis. History is abound with examples such as Royal Court (FH) in D21 which was sold by for $800psf by the developer for 2-bedders in 1998, which is still transacted at below $700psf. And when I was looking at Opera Estate landed housing last year, a few of the terrace houses which I considered at $1.3M to $1.5M were bought by their owners more than 20 years ago for $1M to $1.4M (just go to the caveats lodged in INLIS and you can see the original prices, or a FOC way is to consult nationproperty.sg). I generally agree that property do hold their intrinsic values over time, but it is a dangerous assumption that property is the only and most reliable form of investment, especially for a lot of middle-income earners who might not have the means to afford multiple investment properties.

To me, property is all about holding power. To own the property, one must have the means to pay for it, not based on future income streams (it is worrying to see some of my friends taking 90% loans to service their dream property and their existing bank/cpf balances is simply enough to pay the first 10%; and it is even more so to see people using rental from the 1st investment property to leverage against the 2nd property purchase). You are absolutely right about cycles being shorter. To me, the greater implication of cycles being shorter means that economic downturns, retrenchments and wage cuts being more frequent and contract work becomes more predominant. To the uber-rich, this is not an area of concern. But to the ordinary man-in-the-street who buys based on herd instinct and developer gimmicks, it can mean years of pain down the road.

On a personal level, I certainly hope that 2010 is a year of a property bull-run. Guess I won't be buying anything, but it is good to see my portfolio appreciating. Let's all hope for the best.

Hi new2mondrian,

Relevant issues raised in your post, I couldn't agree more.

Every asset class (be it property, stocks, commodities, etc...) has a part to play in a balanced portfolio, very akin to having a toolbox full of different equipment for varying tasks.

As in every investment, it's usually about holding power and entry price....

Regards.

[Reporter]

Btw I was just told a studio had been sold @ 1438psf.

Southbank's resale nëw hïgh $1,438 psf is surely nicer than last high $1,351.

38, sum fatt! Fatt ah!

At least a prosperous (fatt) start for District 7.

[Reporter]

At least a prosperous (fatt) start for District 7.

Perhaps it is no biggie for Southbank afterall.

If Northwood in District 25 Sembawang can do $710 psf, surely Southbank in District 7 can do $1,438 psf or better right?

72 Jalan Mata Ayer #03-26 Freehold $710 1313 $933k 22 Dec 09
66 Jalan Mata Ayer #04-17 Freehold $685 1313 $900k 18 Dec 09
68 Jalan Mata Ayer #05-18 Freehold $577 1948 $1125k 17 Dec 09
70 Jalan Mata Ayer #04-22 Freehold $674 1313 $885k 02 Dec 09

Not sure S$710psf is a new high in this area?