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Thread: Property market sentiments 2010

  1. #91
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    Won't it be better for future generations of Singaporeans if HDB has no value. So they can afford a roof over their heads without needing to taking a huge loan and servicing it for long period (30 years)? Say a 4-room flat remains at $40k which most Singaporeans can pay up in under a year. U don't call a property an asset unless u have more than 1 =) majority of Singaporeans don't own more than 1 so property is actually a liability to them.

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    i LOL when i read the news... old man getting gan cheong liao

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    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    Bad News!!! Bad News!!!

    Property prices could possibly crash after the next general election!!!

    The Straits Times - 27 Jan 2010



    Mr Lee's blunt remarks were in response to a question by dialogue moderator Tommy Koh, who pulled out a Straits Times report which said at least three opposition parties are keen to contest Tampines GRC that Mr Mah helms. -- ST PHOTO: LAU FOOK KONG

    THE current contentious issue on the affordability of public housing was given another airing by Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew who cautioned Singaporeans not to cast a protest vote against the ruling party over this.

    As Singaporeans lament about rising flat prices, he said they ought to understand the Government sells them at a subsidised price, below market rate, so that they can own an asset that will appreciate in value over the years. It adds to their wealth and this is asset-enhancing policy Mr Lee believes citizens should not find fault with.

    If they do, they must be 'daft', he said at a dialogue during a housing conference as part of a series of events to mark the Housing Board's (HDB) 50th anniversary.

    "And if National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan is unable to defend this policy, 'he deserves to lose' at the next General Election, he quipped to laughter from the participants, including a chuckling Mr Mah.

    But if Mr Mah loses to the opposition, he warned that Singaporeans better sell their flats fast as it would no longer be of any value.

    WOW ... looks like our Great Religiion - Propertism - which believes that property prices will always rise in the long term, is under threat tonight!!!

    First, we have terrace houses with prices that decrease, rather than increase, with time!!!

    Now, we have MM warning that HDB flats could be no longer be of any value.

    If HDB flats become no longer be of any value, what will happen to private properties?

    Should I betray my own Propertism religious belief, that properties should only be bought but not sold, and sell off my entire portfolio of properties?

    Should Reporter quickly sell his District 9 condo, which he'd just recently bought in Nov 2009?

    Will Property_Owner, an old man with a weak heart who owns 40+ properties, suffer a heart attack?

    All these lie in the hands of Tampines GRC.

    Who here stays in Tampines GRC?

    What if someting untowards happen to MBT like disease,natural disasters and he kick the bucket(GOD forbid,touch wood).Will HDB also crash?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Blair
    What if someting untowards happen to MBT like disease,natural disasters and he kick the bucket(GOD forbid,touch wood).Will HDB also crash?
    HDB flats prices will tumble and my 6 properties will follow him down his grave?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    HDB flats prices will tumble and my 6 properties will follow him down his grave?
    Sigh..4 horsemen are coming then....A loaf of bread will be a day wage.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xebay11
    Anyway if property prices drop and my income don't drop, it will be a dream come true. GCB at Queen Astrid Park at $500k here I come.
    Quote Originally Posted by Allthepies
    Say a 4-room flat remains at $40k which most Singaporeans can pay up in under a year.
    The posts made by these two people "xebay11" and "Allthepies" suddenly hit me by lightning.

    I suddenly realised several profound truths of the Propertism religion - the belief that property prices will always go up in the long term.

    Just look at these ...


    January 2010
    For Sale -Queen Astrid Bungalow (D10)
    S$ 26,800,000 Negotiable
    Land area: 25,500 sqft



    Housewife Yeo Wee Geck, 85, is one. The grandmother of six lives with her only daughter and their maid in a five-room HDB flat in Marine Parade. She bought the 20th-storey unit in the early 1970s for $30,000. Today, buyers are willing to pay $500,000.

    Today, the Queen Astrid Park Bungalow is asking $26.8 million, which is 54 times the asking price 30+ years ago. Whereas a Marine Parade five-room HDB flat is worth only 17 times what it was 30+ years ago.

    Propertism 101 - Morals of the Story

    1. If Granny Yeo's Marine Parade HDB 5-room flat had appreciated by the same proportion as the Queen Astrid Park bungalow, a Marine Parade HDB 5-room flat will cost $1.6 Million today.

    2. If Granny Yeo had come up with a bit more money back in the 1970's and bought a Queen Astrid Park bungalow for $500,000 instead of a Marine Parade HDB 5-room flat (the difference of $470,000 is quite insignificant, just ask her daughter), then Granny Yeo will be a very rich lady today.

    3. If time machines exist, then xebay11 would have gone back to buy a Queen Astrid Park bungalow for $500,000, while Allthepies would have gone back to buy a Marine Parade HDB flat for $40,000. And then history would have repeated itself yet again, whereby the rich gets richer and the poor gets poorer.

    4. The reason why HDB flats are not appreciating as much as Queen Astrid Park is because HDB holds the title of the freehold land on which all HDB flats are sitting. HDB is the GOD of PROPERTISM !!! Even more powerful than the Godfather of Propertism - FEO!!! Even more powerful than Koh Sek Lim!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    Good News!!! Good News!!!

    A 2,200 sq ft terrace house right here in Singapore can now be bought for only $500k!!!

    They sit on a large plot of freehold land which belonged to Mr Koh Sek Lim, a property owner in the east who has since died.

    Mr Koh sold a 70-year lease for the land in the 1960s to several developers who built and marketed the houses there.

    Only 26 years remain on the lease of the land.

    WOW ...

    This Koh Sek Lim is really a man with great foresight!!!

    He's even more powerful than our Godfather of Propertism, FEO, who only recently woke up to the fact that land should only be bought. Not sold.

  7. #97
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    But at least HDB flats appreciate with time. Not like e Shore or Livia....

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    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    Bad News!!! Bad News!!!

    Property prices could possibly crash after the next general election!!!

    The Straits Times - 27 Jan 2010



    Mr Lee's blunt remarks were in response to a question by dialogue moderator Tommy Koh, who pulled out a Straits Times report which said at least three opposition parties are keen to contest Tampines GRC that Mr Mah helms. -- ST PHOTO: LAU FOOK KONG

    THE current contentious issue on the affordability of public housing was given another airing by Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew who cautioned Singaporeans not to cast a protest vote against the ruling party over this.

    As Singaporeans lament about rising flat prices, he said they ought to understand the Government sells them at a subsidised price, below market rate, so that they can own an asset that will appreciate in value over the years. It adds to their wealth and this is asset-enhancing policy Mr Lee believes citizens should not find fault with.

    If they do, they must be 'daft', he said at a dialogue during a housing conference as part of a series of events to mark the Housing Board's (HDB) 50th anniversary.

    "And if National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan is unable to defend this policy, 'he deserves to lose' at the next General Election, he quipped to laughter from the participants, including a chuckling Mr Mah.

    But if Mr Mah loses to the opposition, he warned that Singaporeans better sell their flats fast as it would no longer be of any value.

    WOW ... looks like our Great Religiion - Propertism - which believes that property prices will always rise in the long term, is under threat tonight!!!

    First, we have terrace houses with prices that decrease, rather than increase, with time!!!

    Now, we have MM warning that HDB flats could be no longer be of any value.

    If HDB flats become no longer be of any value, what will happen to private properties?

    Should I betray my own Propertism religious belief, that properties should only be bought but not sold, and sell off my entire portfolio of properties?

    Should Reporter quickly sell his District 9 condo, which he'd just recently bought in Nov 2009?

    Will Property_Owner, an old man with a weak heart who owns 40+ properties, suffer a heart attack?

    All these lie in the hands of Tampines GRC.

    Who here stays in Tampines GRC?
    Think carefully, the MM is trying to use reverse psychology on people by making a contrast between the opposition party (value plunges) and PAP (value goes up). In a sense, he's just trying to scare people to vote for PAP, in another, he's darn right about property prices plunging if PAP looses. I hope PAP and HDB hold, as this is the only way our wealth can be preserved.

  9. #99
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    Default Maybe next crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by new2mondrian
    now that stocks are heading south, maybe equities are looking attractive all over again, especially since i off-loaded most of my stuffs few weeks back....

    maybe when OCBC hits $5.50, DBS hits $9, I will start accumulating again. and maybe SPH as well.... yield is not too bad...

    anyone into stocks here too? focus?
    I think you need to see another major crisis before you see this price. A pullback is possible but that kind of price you hope for, very remote. My 2 cents' worth of thoughts....

    Anyway, cycles getting shorter, probably can wait for another 5 to 10 years.

  10. #100
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    I think it is unfair to compare D10 bungalow with D15 HDB. Let's compare apple to apple outside of D9/D10.

    Gillman Height 1984 (with facilities, privatized in 1995) - 1800sqft about 280k
    Sold enbloc for 900k after 20+ years (300%)

    Simei 4A flat, bought 90k in 1988, now about 400k (400%)

    Obviously, Gillman Height enbloc price was too low ... but 400% gain in 20y is the norm outside D9/D10. It only translates to annualized gain of about 7%, close to STI performance.

    But again, there are places like Pasir Ris/Woodlands that may not be able to fetch this kind of long term return as highlighted by Property_Owner.
    Last edited by jitkiat; 28-01-10 at 10:20.

  11. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by pmet
    Think carefully, the MM is trying to use reverse psychology on people by making a contrast between the opposition party (value plunges) and PAP (value goes up). In a sense, he's just trying to scare people to vote for PAP, in another, he's darn right about property prices plunging if PAP looses. I hope PAP and HDB hold, as this is the only way our wealth can be preserved.
    Even if the opposition wins in Tampines, PAP will still be the Government, so what's the issue? Is not like overnight we will have a new Government in Singapore right?
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    Quote Originally Posted by sleek
    Even if the opposition wins in Tampines, PAP will still be the Government, so what's the issue? Is not like overnight we will have a new Government in Singapore right?
    MBT is the most profitable minister mah ...

    when in LTA .. there COE, ERP ...made so so much money ... check spore reserves during the year MAH in LTA

    when he in HDB .. new HDB sell so high ..sell so well ..

    land Sale during down period , price not right dont count, dont sell

    price high high ..sell more land


    AGAIN Mah helps the govt make SO much money ... losing him .. whos going to pay for the other ministers' pay ???

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    Quote Originally Posted by sleek
    Even if the opposition wins in Tampines, PAP will still be the Government, so what's the issue? Is not like overnight we will have a new Government in Singapore right?

    This is scary after e win opposition will tell all Tampines flats owner to sell their flats with a -20% of current price formula.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Property_Owner
    This is scary after e win opposition will tell all Tampines flats owner to sell their flats with a -20% of current price formula.
    I want ... sell it to me

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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    I want ... sell it to me
    I also want.. 1time buyer 30% off.?

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    MBT is easily replaceable n not indispensable
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Blair
    What if someting untowards happen to MBT like disease,natural disasters and he kick the bucket(GOD forbid,touch wood).Will HDB also crash?

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    I dun think prices will be heading for a major correction.
    If someone is so confident that the market will be heading for a 20/30% crash, he/she should sell now and buy when that day come.
    Risk is only 3%. Upside is 17/27%.

    So will prices comes down?

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    'No' to more rental housing
    Rachel Chang
    The Straits Times
    Thursday, 28 January 2010

    Building more flats for rent could ease the burden on younger Singaporeans starting out in life - just as it could help others invest their resources in developing their businesses.

    The idea of increasing the Housing Board's pool of rental flats to help those Singaporeans concerned about affordable housing, was put to Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew at a conference yesterday.

    But he was quick to disagree, arguing that it was tantamount to putting the HDB in a position of subsidising rents indefinitely. It would also create a 'dependency group' - those constantly dependent on the Government and on subsidies.

    The right policy is to, instead, subsidise the price of the flat for the buyer, who then has an asset that will appreciate in value as the economy grows.

    'I'll improve the surroundings, I'll improve the lifts, the conditions, I'll give you more space. But it is yours and you look after it. And we do not have rundown public housing like other countries which are rental (units),' he said.

    The idea was put forward by Professor Deng Yongheng, director of the National University of Singapore's Institute of Real Estate Studies. He said that having more rental flats would help low-income earners, and also allow others to put their money into meeting 'entrepreneurship and other demands'.

    Mr Lee said that for those needing resources for their businesses, there was 'nothing to stop you from taking your house, your flat, you go to the bank and say... I've got so much more to pay, this is my income, I need this capital to start a business'.

    The HDB clarified later to the media, however, that an HDB flat cannot be used as collateral for a bank loan.

    In his response at the dialogue, Mr Lee also said that young Singaporeans wanting to invest in business and not be burdened with financing a flat, could rent from the private sector.

    'If you believe you can be a great entrepreneur, then rent a flat from somebody. All the HDB flats are now rentable.'

    Mr Lee also disagreed with another idea, raised by Ambassador-at-large Tommy Koh, that the HDB could build retirement communities like those found in Australia and the United States.

    Mr Lee said he had read an article by a US doctor, who had assets but who stopped his practice and went into such a home.

    'This retirement home was like a hotel and there were other doctors with whom he could discuss things at an intellectual level ... He is in that profession, so he has saved enough to pay for the facilities as if it were a hotel,' Mr Lee said.

    'You want American standards of living, be an American doctor. Singapore cannot give you that. We haven't got that kind of economy, nor that kind of land. Not even the developer can afford to go and retire in that kind of situation.'

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    Quote Originally Posted by Property_Owner
    This is scary after e win opposition will tell all Tampines flats owner to sell their flats with a -20% of current price formula.
    The more reason why the MIW cannot afford Oppositions to win, as if HDB prices really drops and become more affordable, then come next election they will lose majority.
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    Default HDB Resale quote for the PR

    1. PR knows limited supply, and will pay for it high
    2. Sg sellers want to sell to PR for higher price
    3. Sg buyers will have to match to price

    interesting policy

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    Quote Originally Posted by Laguna
    1. PR knows limited supply, and will pay for it high
    2. Sg sellers want to sell to PR for higher price
    3. Sg buyers will have to match to price

    interesting policy
    Its called Asset Enhancement.
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    Quote Originally Posted by sleek
    Even if the opposition wins in Tampines, PAP will still be the Government, so what's the issue? Is not like overnight we will have a new Government in Singapore right?
    PAP loosing Tampinese will be an important milestone. The opposition will take this opportunity to launch their offensives against PAP using "overinflated" property prices as an excuse causing PAP to take on a defensive approach to avoid more blood shed. Thus, the current policy (see above article) undertook by HDB/PAP will have to be reviewed under the new threat.

    From another standpoint:

    So answering your question, even if the opposition does not overthrow the government, (PAP) loosing Tampinese to the opposition means the current policy undertook by Mah will become shaky. As a result, HDB might lower new HDB prices and tighten control on the resale market to regain control of the property market. Prices will plunge as panic sellers think of the long term prospect. MM will say, I told you so.

    If opposition takes over, they will try to do a change (think Obama) that will surely not benefit the property market.
    Last edited by pmet; 28-01-10 at 14:27.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Straits Times

    Don't cast protest vote
    Sue-Ann Chia
    Senior Political Correspondent
    The Straits Times


    Mr Lee's blunt remarks were in response to a question by dialogue moderator Tommy Koh, who pulled out a Straits Times report which said at least 3 opposition parties are keen to contest Tampines GRC that Mr Mah helms. -- Photo: Lau FookKong, ST

    The current contentious issue on the affordability of public housing was given another airing by Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew who cautioned Singaporeans not to cast a protest vote against the ruling party over this.

    As Singaporeans lament about rising flat prices, he said they ought to understand the Government sells them at a subsidised price, below market rate, so that they can own an asset that will appreciate in value over the years. It adds to their wealth and this is asset-enhancing policy Mr Lee believes citizens should not find fault with.

    If they do, they must be 'daft', he said at a dialogue during a housing conference as part of a series of events to mark the Housing Board's (HDB) 50th anniversary.

    And if National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan is unable to defend this policy, 'he deserves to lose' at the next General Election, he quipped to laughter from the participants, including a chuckling Mr Mah.

    But if Mr Mah lose to the opposition, he warned that Singaporeans better sell their flats fast as it would no longer be of any value.

    Mr Lee's blunt remarks were in response to a question by dialogue moderator Tommy Koh, who pulled out a Straits Times report which said at least three opposition parties are keen to contest Tampines GRC that Mr Mah helms, as they want to raise the affordability of public housing as an election issue to gain votes.
    Will they put M Mah in MM Lee's GRC?

    Will Singaporeans need to sell their flats fast?

    Will ..... ?

  24. #114
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    If the opposition is going to use the increasing flat prices as an issue in debate, it will be a folly on their part. Majority of voters are flat owners and MM indeed has a point (which I already thought of a long time ago), that nobody who owns a flat would want to see prices stagnate or plummet coz the flat is after all their largest asset and investment. The government has done the right thing by not putting a curb on flat prices as that would be unsound policy-making. I think in this sense, i will have to agree with propertism.

    Quote Originally Posted by pmet
    PAP loosing Tampinese will be an important milestone. The opposition will take this opportunity to launch their offensives against PAP using "overinflated" property prices as an excuse causing PAP to take on a defensive approach to avoid more blood shed. Thus, the current policy (see above article) undertook by HDB/PAP will have to be reviewed under the new threat.

    From another standpoint:

    So answering your question, even if the opposition does not overthrow the government, (PAP) loosing Tampinese to the opposition means the current policy undertook by Mah will become shaky. As a result, HDB might lower new HDB prices and tighten control on the resale market to regain control of the property market. Prices will plunge as panic sellers think of the long term prospect. MM will say, I told you so.

    If opposition takes over, they will try to do a change (think Obama) that will surely not benefit the property market.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Property_Owner
    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    HDB flats prices will tumble and my 6 properties will follow him down his grave?
    Sigh..4 horsemen are coming then....A loaf of bread will be a day wage.
    Don't worry!!! Don't worry!!!

    After thinking long and hard, I finally realise what the government will do to make the flats "no longer be of any value" in case Mah Bow Tan loses.



    Saint Double-O to the rescue !!!

    Dec 1, 2009
    N.Korea cuts 2 zeros off bills.

    So Queen Astrid Park will now be worth $26.8 Million/100 = $268,000!!!

    Granny Yeo's Marine Parade HDB 5-room flat will become $500,000/100 = $5,000!!!

    From tomorrow onwards all fresh graduates' starting pay = $20 per month!!!

    Chicken rice = 2 cts per plate!!!

    All existing currency notes will no longer be legal tender, and have to be exchanged into new currency notes. Every old $100 note exchange for one new $1 note. All deposits in bank accounts, share values in CDP accounts will be shifted by two zeros.

    Exchange rate becomes new S$1 = US$71.

    Effectively nothing has changed.

    But then people cannot complain.

    Imagine at the opposition rally ... "Down with the PAP!!! Thirty years ago, the bloody Granny bought a flat for only $30,000, yet today she is asking for ... asking for ... $5,000."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    If the opposition is going to use the increasing flat prices as an issue in debate, it will be a folly on their part. Majority of voters are flat owners and MM indeed has a point (which I already thought of a long time ago), that nobody who owns a flat would want to see prices stagnate or plummet coz the flat is after all their largest asset and investment. The government has done the right thing by not putting a curb on flat prices as that would be unsound policy-making. I think in this sense, i will have to agree with propertism.
    I think the folly is when ppl believe property prices will always shoot up. To say that Mah being voted out will result in HDB prices plunging is really quite illogical. After all Mah also did not foresee HDB prices rising by so much. So basically it is just fear mongering aka election tough talk from the old man lah ~

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    Property market in Singapore will always go up in the long term (with correction along the way) because the supporting fundamental conditions do not change easily:

    1. Clean / transparent government with world class English/Chinese education (Jet Li, Jim Rogers ...)

    2. Neighbouring countries corrupted and politically unstable with high inflation. Indonesians park their $$ in Orchard, Malaysians at Bukit Timah, Chinese near NTU/NUS, Indians at Tanjong Rhu. Rich Vietnamese / Americans / British are coming ...

    3. Competition dying. Once we were alarmed by opening of KLIA and Bangkok's new airport and seaport like PTP but they are now in ashes. Once we were alarmed by Dubai as an alternative ... now?

    4. During the past few years, GIC/Temasek manage to buy a big stake in UBS, Citi, Barclays, StanChart ... further strengthening our position as financial service centre

    5. Singapore delivers (although slower than China) - massive infra projects like IRs, Changi Airport Terminal 3, KPE, Circle line ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    If the opposition is going to use the increasing flat prices as an issue in debate, it will be a folly on their part. Majority of voters are flat owners and MM indeed has a point (which I already thought of a long time ago), that nobody who owns a flat would want to see prices stagnate or plummet coz the flat is after all their largest asset and investment. The government has done the right thing by not putting a curb on flat prices as that would be unsound policy-making. I think in this sense, i will have to agree with propertism.
    Beg to differ:

    Sometimes, people just don't think straight. We all know, if all flat owners as majority of voters see this point, there shouldn't be so much unhappiness with the PAP over issues with rising housing cost. Furthermore, we have heard a lot of noise from young people who are next generation voters. These people only have a short term goal in sight.

    The potential of the opposition exploiting this issue is very high but I'm sure not as their only "weapon". My point is that the opposition requires support from those noisy people (above) to win and if they do, I'm sure the property market is going in a different direction than today.
    Last edited by pmet; 28-01-10 at 16:53.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pmet
    Beg to differ:

    Sometimes, people just don't think straight. We all know, if all flat owners as majority of voters see this point, there shouldn't be so much unhappiness with the PAP over issues with rising housing cost. Furthermore, we have heard a lot of noise from young people who are next generation voters. These people only have a short term goal in sight.

    The potential of the opposition exploiting this issue is very high but I'm sure not as their only "weapon". My point is that the opposition requires support from those noisy people (above) to win and if they do, I'm sure the property market is going in a different direction than today.
    Do you know what percentage of the total population is "noisy people"? I am trying hard to figure out this number.

    Noise can easily catch our attention but not silence.

    My point is: People with loud voice (i.e. "noisy people") may not represent the general public.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    Do you know what percentage of the total population is "noisy people"? I am trying hard to figure out this number.

    Noise can easily catch our attention but not silence.

    My point is: People with loud voice (i.e. "noisy people") may not represent the general public.
    I'm trying hard to figure it out too but as a matter of fact, a bit a noise is sufficient to catch the attention of PAP/oppositions. For instance, those online petitioners represent only a small fraction of dissatisfied people but their noise were effective.

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