The Minton (D19, 99 years leasehold, Kheng Leong)

[jlrx]

absolute quantum not a lot of difference, but in % terms will be at least 20% higer than your estimates.

forum so quiet these days... looks like all the bulls have either gone on holiday or gone to hibernate. Even jlrx is preaching less of his propertism this days....

I'm preaching less of PROPERTISM nowadays firstly because most people here have already successfully converted to PROPERTISM and secondly there are some clouds in the sky which provides a good opportunity to test the faith of new converts.

Hence I'm observing who will keep the faith and ascend to PROPERTISM heaven, and who will sell their properties and descend to Straits Times Complainers' forum.

PROPERTISM Rule No. 1 - Property prices always go up in the long term hence properties should only be bought and not sold.

For those who miss my sermons, here is an interesting website for some nostalgia:

http://goodmorningyesterday.blogspot...kit-timah.html

Freehold terrace houses in Bukit Timah District 10 going for only $28,000!!!

[teddybear]

Not true. You can live in Johor, even much more cheaper! (I know of people who do that and drive SG-registered car to work in SG).

living in the UK, you have a choice to live much further out like a johor equivalent in terms of distance and commute via train, that in itself defrays some of the demand for the zone 4 properties. for singapore, the furthest you can go is woodlands, beyond which you'll fall off into the sea.

[kane]

most people won't be that willing to commute across borders, resulting in sticky prices. if it was really easy to shuffle across, Johor house prices will rally 100% and woodlands & sembawang will drop 20%.

[devilplate]

not to tok down JB ppty

but i hf seen and heard enuff true cases whereby ur ppty is burgled every now and den...if u buy and dun stay there often...u will be shocked to death when u see many drug addicts etc camping in ur HSE when u go back to ur hse!!!

i got msia relatives...just recently, my niece nearly got kidnapped just outside her condo! luckily she was saved by the condo security guards! now she was told to wait for cab inside her condo beside the guardhouse....very scary...but its real and true life incidents!

[rainy]

Stock market so bearish still people dare to buy, hats off to them.

Sometimes people just don't understand what is going on in Europe, only blinded by low interest rate

Richard Russell, the famous writer of the Dow Theory Letters, has a chilling line in today's note:

Do your friends a favor. Tell them to "batten down the hatches" because there's a HARD RAIN coming. Tell them to get out of debt and sell anything they can sell (and don't need) in order to get liquid. Tell them that Richard Russell says that by the end of this year they won't recognize the country. They'll retort, "How the dickens does Russell know -- who told him?" Tell them the stock market told him.

That's pretty intense!

agree with you ... now that individual europe country can't devalue their own currency ... more countries might be in trouble ... greece may go bankrupt in two years' time ...

[Wild Falcon]

True. Going through immigration is a pain, imagine going through this everyday few times a day. And also one has to look at fundementals like rental yields. If Orchard Road property should be 10x suburbs, does Orchard Rd property command 10x the rental? I.e. imagine a 1000sq ft property that can be rented out at $3k per month at suburbs. Can similar 1000sq ft property in Orchard command $30k rental today? Obviously not. Orchard Road property is only 2-3x suburbs - for good reason. If Orchard Rd property is 10x, then rental yield is 0.01% and it will start to correct to fair value - as simple as that. That is why I don't like to use REFERENCE POINTS for valuation. The reference points like London is not a good reference. One still has to do homework, conduct diligence and look at the unique attributes and regulations in any country. And Singapore has a large middle class.

most people won't be that willing to commute across borders, resulting in sticky prices. if it was really easy to shuffle across, Johor house prices will rally 100% and woodlands & sembawang will drop 20%.

[teddybear]

More correct to say that Singapore has a fast growing $m annual income personnel (i.e. more middle income upgrading to upper income (more richer people) & at higher income) and a thinning middle income who got hit left right centre by GST, COE, not qualified for HDB yet over-stretch to buy larger private properties etc etc (lower income just can't upgrade to middle income for similar reasons). No wonder the sizes of the 3BR properties keep getting smaller and smaller (make worse by the big big planter areas and bay windows).
You would be surprised by the actual number of people crossing the causeway everyday to work in Singapore and get back home in Johor!

True. Going through immigration is a pain, imagine going through this everyday few times a day. And also one has to look at fundementals like rental yields. If Orchard Road property should be 10x suburbs, does Orchard Rd property command 10x the rental? I.e. imagine a 1000sq ft property that can be rented out at $3k per month at suburbs. Can similar 1000sq ft property in Orchard command $30k rental today? Obviously not. Orchard Road property is only 2-3x suburbs - for good reason. If Orchard Rd property is 10x, then rental yield is 0.01% and it will start to correct to fair value - as simple as that. That is why I don't like to use REFERENCE POINTS for valuation. The reference points like London is not a good reference. One still has to do homework, conduct diligence and look at the unique attributes and regulations in any country. And Singapore has a large middle class.

[gohsoonk]

In a way, Kane is addressing the distance issue. The fact of the matter is that the zones in Singapore (CCR, RCR, OCR) are less than 1.5 hours drive (worse cast). There is a limit to the ratio in premium for the properties in different regions.

most people won't be that willing to commute across borders, resulting in sticky prices. if it was really easy to shuffle across, Johor house prices will rally 100% and woodlands & sembawang will drop 20%.

[new2mondrian]

I'm preaching less of PROPERTISM nowadays firstly because most people here have already successfully converted to PROPERTISM and secondly there are some clouds in the sky which provides a good opportunity to test the faith of new converts.

Hence I'm observing who will keep the faith and ascend to PROPERTISM heaven, and who will sell their properties and descend to Straits Times Complainers' forum.

PROPERTISM Rule No. 1 - Property prices always go up in the long term hence properties should only be bought and not sold.

For those who miss my sermons, here is an interesting website for some nostalgia:

http://goodmorningyesterday.blogspot...kit-timah.html

Freehold terrace houses in Bukit Timah District 10 going for only $28,000!!!

Indeed you are back!!! =) Missed your active preaching sometimes... kekekee.... Propertism heaven versus ST Complainers' Forum indeed!

[teddybear]

The time taken to drive from Zone 4 to Zone 1 in London is also less than 1.5 hours, but that still causes the price of Zone 1 / Zone 4 to rise to 10:1. So distance is just part of the equation.

In a way, Kane is addressing the distance issue. The fact of the matter is that the zones in Singapore (CCR, RCR, OCR) are less than 1.5 hours drive (worse cast). There is a limit to the ratio in premium for the properties in different regions.

[stalingrad]

The time taken to drive from Zone 4 to Zone 1 in London is also less than 1.5 hours, but that still causes the price of Zone 1 / Zone 4 to rise to 10:1. So distance is just part of the equation.

In london, however, Zone 4 is much less developed than zone 1. In singapore, every zone is a perfect reflection of another, except of course the far off places like woodlands. and even woodlands today are pretty much like orchard road. I, for one, have not gotten my ass in the orchard zone for years, I mean years.

[stalingrad]

this is what zone 4 looks like, nothing like zone one.

[scsc]

In london, however, Zone 4 is much less developed than zone 1. In singapore, every zone is a perfect reflection of another, except of course the far off places like woodlands. and even woodlands today are pretty much like orchard road. I, for one, have not gotten my ass in the orchard zone for years, I mean years.

ya man... The current Singapore picture is like our shopping malls... once u step into one or two, you can forget to visit others copycats lookalike...

Hope the Re-making of Spore is on the fast track with major townships in Jurong, Paya Lebar, Marina, Seletar... we need more unique characteristics than juz food

[august]

this is what zone 4 looks like, nothing like zone one.

zombieland ??

[kane]

that's the equivalent of johor with english architecture.

zone 4 to zone 1: 1.5hours. johor to downtown plus jam: 2.5hours.

actually, if you want a slower pace and less crowded out feeling on weekends, zone 4 or johor offers such advantages.

[gohsoonk]

I missed his newspaper articles...classic

Indeed you are back!!! =) Missed your active preaching sometimes... kekekee.... Propertism heaven versus ST Complainers' Forum indeed!

[teddybear]

What a joke!

In london, however, Zone 4 is much less developed than zone 1. In singapore, every zone is a perfect reflection of another, except of course the far off places like woodlands. and even woodlands today are pretty much like orchard road. I, for one, have not gotten my ass in the orchard zone for years, I mean years.

[devilplate]

poor Minton...now this thread really become badminton

[ay123]

What a joke!

i agree with stalingrad. now causeway point is crowded with ppl everyday!! u can see long queue outside every restaurant and the ppl are youngster. if compare by human traffic, woodland & orchard is comparable. however orchard is branded shopping mall lah

[stalingrad]

i agree with stalingrad. now causeway point is crowded with ppl everyday!! u can see long queue outside every restaurant and the ppl are youngster. if compare by human traffic, woodland & orchard is comparable. however orchard is branded shopping mall lah

Now let's get back to the main point I was making. London is a heterogeneous city, justifying the price differentials across regions. Singapore, however, is a homogeneous city and getting more so by the day. Thus, wait for the prices in different regions to equalize in the long run. Equalization is in fact already occurring. Prices in the outlying areas are rising, but those in CBD are hardly moving.

Eventually those who own in the outlying area will be worth millions, and those who own in the CBD will cry all the way to the bankruptcy court.

[devilplate]

Now let's get back to the main point I was making. London is a heterogeneous city, justifying the price differentials across regions. Singapore, however, is a homogeneous city and getting more so by the day. Thus, wait for the prices in different regions to equalize in the long run. Equalization is in fact already occurring. Prices in the outlying areas are rising, but those in CBD are hardly moving.

Eventually those who own in the outlying area will be worth millions, and those who own in the CBD will cry all the way to the bankruptcy court.

i disagree...there will always be a substantial price differential between mass and luxury segment.

u expect Jet Li or Jim rogers to stay in mass market homes?

For eg. nassim hill will always be the most coveted address in SG

[stalingrad]

i disagree...there will always be a substantial price differential between mass and luxury segment.

u expect Jet Li or Jim rogers to stay in mass market homes?

For eg. nassim hill will always be the most coveted address in SG

there will be a price differential, but it will not be substantial. Wait for orchard road prices to drop to 1,500 psf, and prices in the outlying regions to go up to 1,300 psf. the difference of 200psf accounts for the snob factor.

[devilplate]

there will be a price differential, but it will not be substantial. Wait for orchard road prices to drop to 1,500 psf, and prices in the outlying regions to go up to 1,300 psf. the difference of 200psf accounts for the snob factor.

if SG manage to constantly attracts enuff rich and famous to call SG their Home/2nd Home....i do not see ur ideaology happens

[august]

Desirability determines whether people are willing to pay the price that mkt demands. It is very hard to imagine e.g. woodlands, west coast reaching parity with nassim and orchard.

[devilplate]

if tat day ever happen...BMW/Merc or even aston martin will only cost 5-10% more den Korean Make!

not bad, i can finally afford aston martin!

[mantrix]

there will be a price differential, but it will not be substantial. Wait for orchard road prices to drop to 1,500 psf, and prices in the outlying regions to go up to 1,300 psf. the difference of 200psf accounts for the snob factor.

I've got same view too. Singapore is unique as we are a homogenous microstate. There is no way we can expand beyond our boundaries apart from reclaiming more land - which of course has a limitation.

The CBD will continue to expand outwards, with satellite micro CBDs in some suburbs - these will too grow in turn.

It's a matter of time, but in future, just to be able to live in Singapore is considered 'prime'

[august]

if tat day ever happen...BMW/Merc or even aston martin will only cost 5-10% more den Korean Make!

not bad, i can finally afford aston martin!

Is like saying kia will sell at same price as BMW/Lexus/Merc and ppl will buy kia!... not impossible of cos but hardly realistic in the near or distant future lol

[devilplate]

or rather SG population consists of 99% multi-millionaires

the whole SG become ORCHARD!

[stalingrad]

Is like saying kia will sell at same price as BMW/Lexus/Merc and ppl will buy kia!... not impossible of cos but hardly realistic in the near or distant future lol

Prices for different brands of cars will not equalize, because quality differs across car brands. Home quality hardly differs across regions in Singapore. So, don't be stupid and use the car analogy.

[devilplate]

Prices for different brands of cars will not equalize, because quality differs across car brands. Home quality hardly differs across regions in Singapore. So, don't be stupid and use the car analogy.

it does make sense..however, its makes a big difference by calling ppl 'stupid'