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Thread: Mass-market homes 'face price pressure'

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    Default Mass-market homes 'face price pressure'

    http://www.straitstimes.com/archive/...ssure-20141205

    Mass-market homes 'face price pressure'

    OCBC report also says capital values of shoebox units could be tested

    Published on Dec 5, 2014 1:00 AM

    By Marissa Lee


    THE demand for mass-market flats has fallen sharply this year and is putting increasing pressure on prices, says OCBC Investment Research.

    It forecasts that prices could fall up to 15 per cent over the next two years while sales of new homes will stay muted next year.

    The numbers from this year point to the gloom ahead.

    There were only 6,800 private homes sold - excluding landed properties and executive condominium units - in the 10 months to Oct 31, half the level of the same period last year, says OCBC Investment Research analyst Eli Lee, adding that the pain is especially acute in the mass-market segment.

    "Mass-market home sales routinely made up the bulk of the total market volume - 69 per cent of total sales over January 2012 to June 2013. As we entered the bear market in the second half of 2013, the dominance of the segment waned and constituted 51 per cent of total sales over July 2013 to date."

    High-end sales "spiked" in October from September, thanks to the launch of Marina One Residences, which sold 335 units over the month at a median price of $2,228 per sq ft, notes Mr Lee.

    He expects demand for shoebox apartments - units up to 506 sq ft - to be more at risk than larger homes due to the "untested rental market for the large supply of shoebox units that will be completed next year".

    The prevailing rents for shoebox units may have been skewed upwards as the smaller completed supply means the market has not really been tested yet.

    Mr Lee also notes that 84 per cent of the 12,000 shoebox units sold since 2009 are outside the city centre, so "their capital values could come under pressure if rental yields decline significantly below current expectations".

    OCBC Investment Research also tips new home sales to stay soft at between 8,000 and 10,000 units next year.

    While some in the industry hope that cooling measures like stamp duties will be reviewed, OCBC expects that will happen only "when residential price declines approach a meaningful threshold of 10 per cent".

    Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said in a speech in October that private property prices still have "some distance to go in achieving a meaningful correction after the sharp run-up in prices in recent years".

    This could happen in the second half of next year or later, said the OCBC report.

    It also prefers large developers with strong balance sheets, a diversified regional presence and portfolios with significant investment asset exposures.

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    Didnt know 84% of MM supply is in OCR.
    The MM OCR rental may drop to a small premium above a HDB master bedroom rental.
    If that happens, MM OCR prices should drop to around a 3rm HDB flat price


    Quote Originally Posted by reporter2 View Post
    http://www.straitstimes.com/archive/...ssure-20141205

    OCBC report also says capital values of shoebox units could be tested

    Published on Dec 5, 2014 1:00 AM

    By Marissa Lee

    He expects demand for shoebox apartments - units up to 506 sq ft - to be more at risk than larger homes due to the

    Mr Lee also notes that 84 per cent of the 12,000 shoebox units sold since 2009 are outside the city centre, so "their capital values could come under pressure if rental yields decline significantly below current expectations".

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    Quote Originally Posted by k00L View Post
    Didnt know 84% of MM supply is in OCR.
    The MM OCR rental may drop to a small premium above a HDB master bedroom rental.
    If that happens, MM OCR prices should drop to around a 3rm HDB flat price
    Didnt know kOOL is actually teddybear in disguise too.
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    The fire sale of OCR MM should start in the summer of 2015 when Yellen hikes interest rates by 25bps, followed by another hike in end 2015.
    Sibor should reach 1%. Poor rentability will make it a -ve carry trade
    Recommend sell now for OCR MM before too late


    Desperate homeowners launch fire sales of shoebox flats

    The flat glut will only intensify.

    Shoebox flats had seemed like the perfect investment property a number of years ago. These units, typically with a floor area less than 50 square meters, hooked penny-pinching investors because of their affordability and the cheap downpayment outlay that they required.

    However, homeowners who bought shoebox flats as investment properties will soon find that these tiny homes will fail to deliver promised profits. According to CIMB, distressed sales of shoebox flats is likely in 2015 to 2016, as sellers struggle to eke out a profit in the soft market.

    “The trigger for the distressed sales of suburban small-formats may come from rising vacancy rates. Smaller units are typically bought for investments, but investors will find themselves hitting a soft market caused by the cutback in foreign labour and ballooning property supply,” noted CIMB.

    CIMB further warned that banks may see some non-performing loans from these mortgages. “But as LTVs for investment properties are lower, the ticket size of each loan is smaller and the smaller price quantum of these products is more likely to find a secondary buyer, we do not expect mortgage NPLs to balloon. The developers that are aggressive on the small-format trend tend to be the small developers, but most have sold off their stock,” CIMB stated.

    - See more at: http://m.sbr.com.sg/residential-prop....ym7WEw8f.dpuf

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    you sound exactly like Teddybear
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    Rental of OCR HDB has faced difficulty in securing tenants 6 months ago. It will face more competition when hdb upgraders start to release more flats for rental when their condos are ready. IMO, hdb prices will continue to drop in the next two quarters.
    Quote Originally Posted by k00L View Post
    Didnt know 84% of MM supply is in OCR.
    The MM OCR rental may drop to a small premium above a HDB master bedroom rental.
    If that happens, MM OCR prices should drop to around a 3rm HDB flat price

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    Rental of new MM at aljunied mrt stn is about $2000. How much can a new OCR MM get?
    Quote Originally Posted by k00L View Post
    The fire sale of OCR MM should start in the summer of 2015 when Yellen hikes interest rates by 25bps, followed by another hike in end 2015.
    Sibor should reach 1%. Poor rentability will make it a -ve carry trade
    Recommend sell now for OCR MM before too late


    Desperate homeowners launch fire sales of shoebox flats

    The flat glut will only intensify.

    Shoebox flats had seemed like the perfect investment property a number of years ago. These units, typically with a floor area less than 50 square meters, hooked penny-pinching investors because of their affordability and the cheap downpayment outlay that they required.

    However, homeowners who bought shoebox flats as investment properties will soon find that these tiny homes will fail to deliver promised profits. According to CIMB, distressed sales of shoebox flats is likely in 2015 to 2016, as sellers struggle to eke out a profit in the soft market.

    “The trigger for the distressed sales of suburban small-formats may come from rising vacancy rates. Smaller units are typically bought for investments, but investors will find themselves hitting a soft market caused by the cutback in foreign labour and ballooning property supply,” noted CIMB.

    CIMB further warned that banks may see some non-performing loans from these mortgages. “But as LTVs for investment properties are lower, the ticket size of each loan is smaller and the smaller price quantum of these products is more likely to find a secondary buyer, we do not expect mortgage NPLs to balloon. The developers that are aggressive on the small-format trend tend to be the small developers, but most have sold off their stock,” CIMB stated.

    - See more at: http://m.sbr.com.sg/residential-prop....ym7WEw8f.dpuf

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008 View Post
    Rental of new MM at aljunied mrt stn is about $2000. How much can a new OCR MM get?
    Paid $750k for a OCR MM can rent out at $2000 only now???
    Only collect $1500 after deducted maintenance fee, pty tax, agent comm, etc .... So sad

    HDB $350k is renting at about $1500 liao
    Last edited by Rysk; 13-12-14 at 11:12.

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    Well, game is over for the MM especially those in OCR.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rysk View Post
    Paid $750k for a OCR MM can rent out at $2000 only now???
    Only collect $1500 after deducted maintenance fee, pty tax, agent comm, etc .... So sad

    HDB $350k is renting at about $1500 liao

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008 View Post
    Well, game is over for the MM especially those in OCR.

    This is the map of Singapore, do you know how tiny RCR and CCR is relative to OCR?



    If OCR is all the same then you might as well call every elderly man with the same family name as PAPA or Daddy
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    That is the exclusivity of being small.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ringo33 View Post
    This is the map of Singapore, do you know how tiny RCR and CCR is relative to OCR?



    If OCR is all the same then you might as well call every elderly man with the same family name as PAPA or Daddy

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008 View Post
    That is the exclusivity of being small.
    Do you mean overbuilt? What about traffic jammed? Pollution? Different focus? LOL
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    Quote Originally Posted by k00L View Post
    Didnt know 84% of MM supply is in OCR.
    The MM OCR rental may drop to a small premium above a HDB master bedroom rental.
    If that happens, MM OCR prices should drop to around a 3rm HDB flat price
    If that really happens, assuming you are referring to OCR HDB of around 300K, there should be huge demand for buying two MMs side by side for 600K to match the size of a normal size 3BR.

    Realistic prediction bo?

    That also has an implication on the whole market. I think CCR FH 3BR will see some selling below 1 million if that day comes. Personally, I would really like to see that happen, because RCR will be probably 800k for the same size.

    Time to wake up.
    Last edited by Kelonguni; 13-12-14 at 18:32.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    2MMs 500 sqft for $600k?
    Where got so cheap?
    OCR MMs any how price also >$1500 psf! 2xMMs 500 sqft at least S$1.5M!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    JGateway is >$1700 psf!


    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    If that really happens, assuming you are referring to OCR HDB of around 300K, there should be huge demand for buying two MMs side by side for 600K to match the size of a normal size 3BR.

    Realistic prediction bo?

    That also has an implication on the whole market. I think CCR FH 3BR will see some selling below 1 million if that day comes. Personally, I would really like to see that happen, because RCR will be probably 800k for the same size.

    Time to wake up.

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    Stop going around calling people leh. Very rude you know. Moderator, please take note of this , before she start farting again.

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    Ringo,

    Don't be such a liar and to show no integrity and no moral character here and trying to put words into other people's mouth!

    When did I say I doesn't like dark skin? Please show evidence to back up your false allegation!
    http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...151#post497151
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    Tenants looking for OCR MM (< 500sf but with facilities) for rental will be comparing with HDB 3 room (7-800sf with no facilities) in the same vicinity, hence 3 room HDB rental prices should provide an indication on where the OCR rental will be.


    TOWN 3-RM Median Rental
    ANG MO KIO $2,000
    BEDOK $2,000
    BISHAN $2,100
    BUKIT BATOK $1,900
    BUKIT MERAH $2,200
    BUKIT PANJANG $1,800
    CENTRAL $2,400
    CLEMENTI $2,200
    GEYLANG $2,100
    HOUGANG $1,900
    JURONG EAST $2,000
    JURONG WEST $1,900
    KALLANG/ WHAMPOA $2,100
    MARINE PARADE $2,200
    QUEENSTOWN $2,200
    SERANGOON $2,000
    TAMPINES $2,100
    TOA PAYOH $2,100
    WOODLANDS $1,650
    YISHUN $1,800

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    Yes, I also heard that PAP has instructed HDB to start installing swimming pool, gyms, Jacuzzi, tennis court, round the clock security for HDB flats and they will also lift the restriction for HDB to rent out for foreigners, including setting up dormitory and whore houses.
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    Agreed. What outsiders do not realize is that even at these rental prices, many OCR MMs are still very viable, as in the projected rent still more than covers mortgage after down payment. Even if interests hike to 3.5%, the same situation persists. The power of low quantum. For the high quantum OCR MMs, let's hope the proximity to the nodes provide tenant pool guarantee and thus price support.

    The bigger question is, if one is not gaining so much, why risk investing? One will have to figure it for himself or herself on this.

    Quote Originally Posted by k00L View Post
    Tenants looking for OCR MM (< 500sf but with facilities) for rental will be comparing with HDB 3 room (7-800sf with no facilities) in the same vicinity, hence 3 room HDB rental prices should provide an indication on where the OCR rental will be.


    TOWN 3-RM Median Rental
    ANG MO KIO $2,000
    BEDOK $2,000
    BISHAN $2,100
    BUKIT BATOK $1,900
    BUKIT MERAH $2,200
    BUKIT PANJANG $1,800
    CENTRAL $2,400
    CLEMENTI $2,200
    GEYLANG $2,100
    HOUGANG $1,900
    JURONG EAST $2,000
    JURONG WEST $1,900
    KALLANG/ WHAMPOA $2,100
    MARINE PARADE $2,200
    QUEENSTOWN $2,200
    SERANGOON $2,000
    TAMPINES $2,100
    TOA PAYOH $2,100
    WOODLANDS $1,650
    YISHUN $1,800
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    It is not about financial viability. It is really about finding tenants given the falling expats. You can go to ICA and observe who are the people getting EPs these days. Most of them are earning at least $12000/mth with housing subsidy. Do you think they will go for MM in OCR?
    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Agreed. What outsiders do not realize is that even at these rental prices, many OCR MMs are still very viable, as in the projected rent still more than covers mortgage after down payment. Even if interests hike to 3.5%, the same situation persists. The power of low quantum. For the high quantum OCR MMs, let's hope the proximity to the nodes provide tenant pool guarantee and thus price support.

    The bigger question is, if one is not gaining so much, why risk investing? One will have to figure it for himself or herself on this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008 View Post
    It is not about financial viability. It is really about finding tenants given the falling expats. You can go to ICA and observe who are the people getting EPs these days. Most of them are earning at least $12000/mth with housing subsidy. Do you think they will go for MM in OCR?
    Stop talking cock lah nothing of what you said can be back up by facts.

    ICA and observe? From the look of the face you can tell their salary? LOL!!

    how much time you spend on ICA a week to make that kind of statement?
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008 View Post
    It is not about financial viability. It is really about finding tenants given the falling expats. You can go to ICA and observe who are the people getting EPs these days. Most of them are earning at least $12000/mth with housing subsidy. Do you think they will go for MM in OCR?
    Honestly the tenants I have are rather price sensitive, even though I managed to raise their rents twice. Even 3% increase they will object like crazy.

    If earn $12,000 means they must rent 6K apartment? I would think it makes more sense to buy a car and live a little further or even get a smaller unit if they do not have children.

    Nonetheless at 2K rent and below, I believe locals are also potential tenants, and have seen quite a few who are renting for various reasons, though I have yet to rent to any.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    May be good to do a survey of how many of our tenants own a car based on District, marital status (with or w/o kids, etc.). Have been renting out my apartments across all regions in Singapore since 1996 to mainly Caucasians and minority of Asians, and only 2 Asians tenants drove. That was when owning cars do not need COE. My French banker tenant who has been living in Singapore for the last 10 years told me that people in Singapore are so crazy to own a car. He can buy a nice car back home with the COE. He prefers to walk to his workplace. But I must say he is single. Maybe family will prefer to own a car?
    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Honestly the tenants I have are rather price sensitive, even though I managed to raise their rents twice. Even 3% increase they will object like crazy.

    If earn $12,000 means they must rent 6K apartment? I would think it makes more sense to buy a car and live a little further or even get a smaller unit if they do not have children.

    Nonetheless at 2K rent and below, I believe locals are also potential tenants, and have seen quite a few who are renting for various reasons, though I have yet to rent to any.
    Last edited by DC33_2008; 14-12-14 at 10:29.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008 View Post
    May be good to do a survey of how many of our tenants own a car based on District, marital status (with or w/o kids, etc.). Have been renting out my apartments across all regions in Singapore since 1996 to mainly Caucasians and minority of Asians, and only 2 Asians tenants drove. That was when owning cars do not need COE. My French banker tenant who has been living in Singapore for the last 10 years told me that people in Singapore are so crazy to own a car. He can buy a nice car back home with the COE. He prefers to walk to his workplace. But I must say he is single. Maybe family will prefer to own a car?
    Fully agree with you on car ownership and tenant profile.

    I think your strategy makes sense for tenants of the financial centres. High rent that accompanies high price of ownership.

    But there is also growing decentralisation of work opportunities in the suburbs. So it makes sense to benchmark with heartland HDBs in terms of pricing of OCR condos or MMs.

    I think it still works. Highly viable in my opinion and experience.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    All these talk about CCR better than OCR is simply rubbish because within CCR or OCR there will are good and bad location, where good location will always command good rental take up rate during good or bad times.

    The problematic area which I think, is the Punggol Sengkang, Woodlands and even Pasir Ris area as there are really too much new supply that have accumulated over the part 3 to 4 years.

    Within CCR, any place there is far from MRT, amenities and school are just as bad.
    "Never argue with an idiot, or he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."

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    A study on those jobs at the decentralized suburban area and their salary will be useful to determine the take-up rate of MM and larger units. Know of some Koreans who are working in the BCA who will be moving to JLD on 22 Dec. They are holding Senior executive/ manager and drawing no more than $7000. How to afford to rent MM at $3000-3500 per month?
    Quote Originally Posted by Kelonguni View Post
    Fully agree with you on car ownership and tenant profile.

    I think your strategy makes sense for tenants of the financial centres. High rent that accompanies high price of ownership.

    But there is also growing decentralisation of work opportunities in the suburbs. So it makes sense to benchmark with heartland HDBs in terms of pricing of OCR condos or MMs.

    I think it still works. Highly viable in my opinion and experience.

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    Koreans posted here are generally in middle-management, with family and kids. How to live in MM?

    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008 View Post
    A study on those jobs at the decentralized suburban area and their salary will be useful to determine the take-up rate of MM and larger units. Know of some Koreans who are working in the BCA who will be moving to JLD on 22 Dec. They are holding Senior executive/ manager and drawing no more than $7000. How to afford to rent MM at $3000-3500 per month?

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    Those that I know are singles. It is definitely No No for Korean family.
    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear View Post
    Koreans posted here are generally in middle-management, with family and kids. How to live in MM?

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    Typically, around 25% of expat salary goes to paying rental
    Associate level in banking/law sector (usually late 20s) is paid around 10k so a lot of them stay at CCR MM. Long working hours makes long commute to OCR MM a chore and socializing/networking afterwork in town is crucial at this stage of career.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008 View Post
    A study on those jobs at the decentralized suburban area and their salary will be useful to determine the take-up rate of MM and larger units. Know of some Koreans who are working in the BCA who will be moving to JLD on 22 Dec. They are holding Senior executive/ manager and drawing no more than $7000. How to afford to rent MM at $3000-3500 per month?
    Do you think they could then afford MMs at $2000 - $2500? That's why I mentioned the minimum benchmark is with HDB rates.

    For small families still viable but contingent on a few other factors, for example the availability of food centres and other amenities in close proximity. I have personally experimented before with two adults and two young children, and also two adults only, very comfortable, but cooking and laundry amenities are required. In the future of SG workers (including foreigners) that I envision, no one would be around to cook at home, and no one would be around to eat at home too. Studying children and workers spend so much time away in school or at work that they are unlikely to eat at home. Cooking needs are minimised. This vision might not be comfortable for Gen X and above but might be already familiar with the newer generations who are used to living in even tinier hostels they share with peers.

    As mentioned, there will also be demand from single locals intending to live away from their home to be near their work site or to be away from home. Such local singles or a couple of good friends, young couples etc might value privacy over size. Price of privacy at $2,000? I would take it.

    And in the worst case situation, an empty MM for a personal holiday hotel suite costs just about 20,000 a year or lower for the owner to maintain. Its risks are hugely mitigated compared to the range of other options.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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    Quote Originally Posted by k00L View Post
    Typically, around 25% of expat salary goes to paying rental
    Associate level in banking/law sector (usually late 20s) is paid around 10k so a lot of them stay at CCR MM. Long working hours makes long commute to OCR MM a chore and socializing/networking afterwork in town is crucial at this stage of career.
    Another useful feature that the ideal OCR MM should have is proximity to transport nodes - buses, MRTs.

    We are not just referring to banking or law. There are many other occupations mentioned by DC33_2008 that work in the OCR, and those sectors will continue to grow in size.
    The three laws of Kelonguni:

    Where there is kelong, there is guni.
    No kelong no guni.
    More kelong = more guni.

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